STAFF NOTES: MIDDLE EAST AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000400010020-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 12, 2001
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: January 29, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
No Foreign Diraem
(F) 0
gul~T KO~H)O
Middle East
Africa
South Asia
'State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
Secret
No. 0420/75
January 29, 1975
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No Foreign Diese,n/PJo Dissem Abroad
Background Use Only/Controlled Diasem
Warning Notice
Sensitive Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Classified by 005827
Exempt from neneral declassification schedule
of E. 0. 1 1652, exemption category:
? 5k_ (1), (2), and (3)
Autoi iatically declassified
on: Date Impossible to Determine
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 Approved For Release 2001/12/05 S I $.T00608R000400010020-6
MIDDLE EAST - AFRICA -? SOUTH ASIA
This publication Is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington com-
munity by the Middle East - Africa Division, Office of Current Intelligence,
with occasional contributions from other offices within the Directorate of
Intelligence. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to
the authors of the Individual articles.
Contents
North Yemen: Assessment of New Cabinet . . . . . 1
Malagasy Republic: Internal Rumblings . . . . . 2
Bangladesh: Mujib May Appoint a Central
Committee
Jan 29, 1975
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North Yemen
Assessment of New Cabinet
The US embassy in Sana has assessed in very
favorable terms the new North Yemeni cabinet formed
this week under Prime Minister Abd-al-Aziz Abd-al-Ghani.
This is North Yemen's third cabinet in eleven months.
The embassy describes the cabinet as pragmatic,
moderate, pro-Western, and likely to be less corrupt
than the outgoing cabinet. Embassy officials have
good personal relations with many of the new ministers.
The several Baathist ministers in the ousted govern-
ment were not reappointed. One of the key ministerial
changes was the designation of Abdallah Asnag as
foreign minister. Asnag, a major figure in the large
Adeni exile community in North Yemen, was one of the
leaders of the movement to oust the UK from Men in
1967.
Following the swearing in of the al-Ghani
cabinet, Sana's strongman Ibrahim Hamdi stressed in
a well-publicized statement that the new cabinet was
solely responsible to the Yemeni people. This was
Hamdi's way of indicating that the cabinet was inde-
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Malagasy Republic
Internal Rumblings
General Ramanantsoa, the head or government, dis-
solved the cabinet on January 26 and promised to
form a new government. His move was an attempt to
end a recent resurgence of tribal and military unrest
highlighted by an unsuccessful coup attempt on
January 1 by officers from disaffected coastal tribes.
Ramanantsoa, who is still the most powerful figure
in the government, apparently intends to give the
coastal tribes a bigger role in the new government.
In his announcement dissolving the government,
Ramanantsoa made no mention of the animosities that
sparked the plotting and unrest; he claimed his move
was prompted by the country's economic difficulties.
The plotters resent the domination of the government
by Merina tribesmen of central Madagascar. Until
Ramanantsoa--a Merina--came to power in 1972 after
student and labor demonstrations helped topple his
predecessor, coastal. people had long dominated the
government.
Some of the coup plotters were arrested, but a
coastal army officer who reportedly was to have
headed a new regime, took refuge with a paramilitary
police unit made up largely of troops from coast
tribes. The police refused to surrender the officer
and bargained with Ramanantsoa for a redress of
coastal grievances. Ramanantsoa placed the armed
forces on alert on January 23, but made no attempt
to move against the police for fear of triggering
serious ethnic strife.
Ramanantsoa's position does not appear to have
been challenged by the recent events. Nonetheless,
he has also tried by his cautious moves against the
plotters to avoid aggravating similar differences
among his key subordinates. Colonel Ratsimandrava,
interior minister and head of the gendarmerie, and
army Colonel Rabetafika, the director-general of
(Continued)
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the government and Ramanantsoa's right-hand man,
have been rivals since Ramanantsua came to power.
Their conflict partly reflects traditional animosity
between the gendarmerie and the army, an extension
of coastal-Merina rivalry; the gendarmerie is pre-
doininantly coastal and the army is a Merina preserve.
Ratsimandrava and Rabetafika may also have differed
on how to deal with the current crisis, raising the
possibility of a clash between the army and
gendarmerie.
The faltering economy and food shortages have
also contributed to the upsurge in unrest. The new
cabinet promised by Rama.nantsoa, therefore, may try
to improve the situation and encourage more Western
aid by diminishing government involvement in the
economy and allowing an expanded role for private
investment.
Regardless of any economic changes, Madagascar
will probably continue to follow a foreign policy
of radical nonalignment, which replaced the conser-
vative, pro-French position favored by the pre-1972
government. Foreign Minister Ratsiraka, the driving
force behind the current policy, is likely to retain
his position. During his three years in office,
Ratsiraka has won wide support among government
colleagues and the people for his nonaligned policies,
which include a ban on visits by foreign naval
ships. (CONFIDENTIAL)
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Bangladesh
Mujib May Appoint a Central Committee
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President
Muji plans to appoint a "central committee" as his
next step in establishing an authoritarian government.
The committee, which might replace the elected
parliament, would consist of some 50 to 70 members
from all segments of society, including the army.
Committee members would serve at Mujib's pleasure.
The ability of parliament to oppose the govern-
ment is already circumscribed by the legislation that
shifted Bangladesh to a presidential system last week-
end. That legislation gave Mujib a range of near-
dictatorial powers. It authorized him to declare
Bangladesh a one-party state, granted him extensive
control over the judiciary, and institutionalized
emergency regulations under which many basic civil
rights had been suspended last month.
The flurry of activity to change the political
system may buy Mujib some additional time a ains- y
antigovernment move by the military.
senior offiiers be ieve Mujib
s ou be given a chance to try to use his new powers
to improve conditions, even though they do not have
much faith in his governing abilities. In any event,
aru not planning a move for at least another month.
(SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM/NO DISSEM ABROAD/BACKGROUND
USE ONLY/CONTROLLED DISSEM)
grade officers who are spear ea ing plotting
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