STAFF NOTES: MIDDLE EAST AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000400010030-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 20, 2004
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: February 12, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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 MIDDLE EAST - AFRICA - SOUTH ASIA
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United Arab Emirates: Three Years of Union
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United Arab Emirates
Three Years of Union
The United Arab Emirates (UAE), a union of
seven Persian Gulf sheikhdoms that was launched
in December 1971,; appears fairly well established
as a federal state, confounding observers who pre-
dicted its early break up. Much of the credit
for its existence and survival belongs to its
President Sheikh Zayid, ruler of Abu Dhabi, the
union's most important member-state. From the
outset, Zayid shaped the UAE's institutions and
had the vision to place federal interests ahead of
those of any of the member states.
The pace of integration is retarded by con-
tinuing rivalries, often petty, among the rulers,
most of whom want to maintain only a very loose
confederation. As a result, some key federal insti-
tutions have not become significantly stronger dur-
ing the past three years. The member sheikhdoms,
for example, are still autonomous in the important
matters of oil revenues, defense,and internal
security. The rulers who oppose close ties appear,
however,'to be fighting a losing battle; like it
or not, economic forces set in motion by the oil
boom in which the sheikhdoms are sharing are foster-
ing the growth of national cohesion. UAE merchants,
who comprise an important political interest group,
support, the federation. They realize that the
economic boom has been fueled by innovations and
activities sponsored by the central government, such
as the creation of a stable uniform currency, the
building of roads and communications systems, and
the abolition of customs between the sheikhdoms.
Favorable attitudes among'young people toward
the union is also a solid asset for Sheikh Zayid
and other UAE leaders who would like to move ahead
with integration of the seven sheikhdoms. Unlike
the older generation, which is still conditioned
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by the parochial values previously dominant in the
area, the young identify more readily with-the new,
system. The federal government has control over
educational system and funds; this gives it a power-
ful influence in strengthening support for the union
among the country's future leaders.
Sheikh Zayid is the cement that binds together
the member states. The greatest foreseeable threat
to the federation would come from his early death;
his likely successor Sheikh Rashid, UAE vice presi-
dent and ruler of Dubai, is lukewarm toward the union.
Zayid, in his late fifties, is in reasonably good
health and may have time to put succession on a
sounder footing, perhaps by grooming and maneuvering
into position'his capable younger son, Sultan.
The leadership that Zayid has given the fledging
state is, to a large extent, attributable to his
personal style of dealing with his fellow rulers.
Using a deft combination of consensus politics and
timely handouts of money, Zayid has maintained good
relations with each of them, no mean feat since they
constantly squabble among themselves. Zayid's
cautious middle-of-the-road course in domestic and
foreign policy, moreover, has not given too many
openings to his enemies.
Even thc';gh centrifugal forces in the UAE now
seem in check, Zayid has taken out some insurance
against moves by member states to break away from
the federation and against power grabs within the
sheikhdoms. He has built the 10,000-man Abu Dhabi
Defense Force, which is personally responsive to
him, into the largest and by far the best equipped
military force in the UAE. The prospect of taking
on this powerful force which would be supported by
the 4-400-man Union Defense Force, will presumably.
make any elements considering insurrection think
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