STAFF NOTES: MIDDLE EAST AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000400010042-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 29, 2005
• Sequence Number: 42
• Publication Date: March 3, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Middle East
Africa
South Asia
State Department review completed
NSA review completed
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MIDDLE EAST - AFRICA - SOUTH ASIA
Israel: Severe Water Problem Likely to
Persist . . 1.
Tanzania: Undecided about Policy toward
Ethiopia 4
Kenya: Bombing Results in Heavy Casualties . . 6
Mar 3, 1975
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Israel
Severe Water Problem Likely to Persist
Israel has always had a severe water problem
arid, as the population grows and industry and
agriculture develop, the problem is likely to
persist. It could become increasingly important
in future Israeli negotiations with Syria and
Jordan.
The southern half of the country is desert or
semidesert, and the more favored land in the north
is subject to recurring drought. Over the years,
drought occurs on an average of one year in every
four; drought years may, however, occur consecu-
tively, as was the case between 1958 and 1963.
Whenever a drought comes, a heavy burden is placed
on Israel's water supply.
In 1974, rainfall in Israel was close to normal,
and slightly over 1.4 billion cubic meters of water
was available. However, an estimated 1.6 billion
cubic meters was used. The additional water had
to come from subterranean sources that Israel tries
to conserve. Normally, the National Water Carrier,
an integrated supply system of over 70 miles of
pipelines and canals, takes Jordan River water from
Lake Tiberias and distributes it to the coastal
areas and the Negev Desert.
Israel's concern over water resources is likely
to be reflected in Tel Aviv's negotiating position
in peace talks with Syria. Foreign Minister Allon
spelled out this concern last year when he said
that the Golan Heights are not only of military
importance to Israel, but are required to ensure
the country's water supply. The upper Baniyas
River, which supplies about one fourth of the water
in the Jordan River, is wholly within Israeli-
occupied Golan.
About 30 percent of Israel's annual water require-
ment is met by waters from the Jordan. The rest of
(Continued)
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the requirement is met by wells and springs, roughly
55 percent, and surface runoff catchment and sewage
reclamation, about 15 percent.
Lake Tiberias is the principal storage reservoir
for the water carrier, but its usefulness is limited
by high salinity rising from mineral springs on the
lake bottom. Only the top three meters of water
can be used in the national system. Salinity would
increase abruptly if the lake's surface were to drop
below the critical point, but the Israelis have so
far not permitted this to happen. Increased amounts
of sewage, fertilizers, and other pollutants are
aggravating the problem of Tiberias water quality
as the population increases in the lake region.
Water shortages in Israel are made up by pump-
ing from the underground sources that feed wells and
springs in the country. Israel counts on rainy
years ahead to recharge this supply. In places
along the coast, underground waters have been depleted
to a point where sea water is intruding. Israel tries
to recharge these coastal subterranean . sources by
diverting water from the National Water Carrier into
the ground, but the amount of water from the carrier
has usually been less than the amount pumped out,
and the deficit has accumulated.
Recent water figures show the country has over-
drawn its groundwater reserves by about 400 million
cubic meters. If rainfall is not above normal for
the next five years the overdraft is expected to
reach 850 million cubic meters, and if dry years
occur it will go significantly higher.
Water for agriculture has been rationed for
several years, and reductions in urban water con-
sumption are being discussed. Israel has tried new
conservation techniques that range from the success-
ful use of brackish water for irrigating certain
crops to an underground irrigation process that
carries water directly to the roots of individual
plants.
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The Israelis have developed a plan that may
yield an extra 360 million cubic meters of fresh
water annually for the next five years. The plan,
which will cost over $213 million, invol+-es:
-- Building rain catchment basins to store
about 50 million cubic meters annually.
-- Constructing a second dam south of Lake
Tiberias to catch and store fresh water over-
flow from rainy periods.
-- Recovering an additional 160 million cubic
meters per year by treating sewage.
-- Desalination of water from brackish sources
in the south.
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-- Drilling many wells.
The country has four main desalination plants
and five pilot desalination projects in operation
at this time. The combined daily production is only
about 13,245 cubic meters of water, all of it con-
sumed near the plants. Israeli officials, however,
continue to debate the feasibility of mounting a'
full-scale program to desalt sea and brackish water.
The cost of such an undertaking has, in the past,
discouraged the Israelis, but a feeling is growing
that a major desalination effort cannot be postponed
much longer, whatever the cost. In 1973, it cost
the Israelis 22 cents per cubic meter for desalted
water and 8 cents per cubic meter for carrier water.
Desalted water will probably continue to be too
costly to become a major source of supply.
The outlook is not favorable. There are no
major additional sources of water available to Israel.
Droughts will occur, and the carefully, conserved sub-
terranean sources will be further depleted as popu-
lation increases and industrial and agricultural
development continues. Technology and ingenuity will
provide short-range remedies, but Israel's water
resources will remain very limited.
Mar 3, 1975
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Tanzania
Undecided about Policy toward Ethiopia
Tanzania has generally followed the Organization
of African Unity policy of supporting the territor-
ial integrity of member states. Dar es Salaam now,
however, is reviewing its policy toward Ethiopia in
the wake of renewed fighting between Eritrean sepa-
ratists and government forces.
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I I Tanzania
and o er UAU states have generally opposed claims
by irredentists, dissident minorities, and separat-
ists. Tanzania and OAU members have favored the
status quo in black Africa as a defensive measure.
They hoped adherence to the OAU resolution would
help prevent the breakup of many fragile new states
composed of disparate ethnic groups.
Tanzania and other OAU countries looked the
other way. when tribal warfare erupted in Burundi in
1972, and have given no encouragement to Somalia's
efforts to enlist African support for its efforts
to annex Ethiopian and Kenyan territory populated
by ethnic Somalis. Tanzania departed from the OAU
policy when it extended formal diplomatic recogni-
tion to the Biafran breakaway state in 1968, but it
was joined by only three other OAU members.
Tanzania's leaders were shocked by the Ethiopia
regime's execution in November of General Aman and
60 leading figures in the former regime. Nonethe-
less Dar es Salaam thus far has consistently supported
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the ruling military council in Addis Ababa. At
the end of October--three months before the out-
break of the current fighting in Eritrea--the
Tanzanian foreign minister told the US ambassador
that he favored US military assistance for Ethiopia,
a statement in sharp contrast to past Tanzanian
rhetoric deploring the US military role in the
region. Last month the government-dominated press
in Tanzania urged the Addis Ababa government to
redress the grievances of the Eritreans, but at
the same time endorsed the territorial integrity
of Ethiopia and deplored secessionist demands as
instigated by enemies of Africa.
Tanzania's apparently wavering attitude toward
the Addis Ababa government may stem in part from
Dar es Salaam's desire to avoid alienating the
Arabs that. support the Eritrean insurgents. Tanzania,
a poor country, is feeling the pinch of the high
cost of imported oil. and other goods and does not
want to risk offending any Potential Arab aid donors.
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Kenya
Bombing Resulte in Heavy Casualties
Twenty seven people were killed and at least
35 seriously injured when a bomb exploded on a
crowded Nairobi bus on March 1. This was the third
bombing in the city in less than ten days; the first
two explosions caused no loss of life.
This type of violence is unusual for Kenya.
Thus far the authorities appear unable to identify
the perpetrators or to determine if the bombings were
politically motivated. Shortly after the first two
bombings, someone claiming membership in a previously
unknown group, the Poor People's Liberation Organiza-
tion, told a local. newspaper his group was responsible
for the explosions.
There are more than enough social issues in Kenya
to fuel discontent. Many are dissatisfied with tribal
favoritism in jobs anA government benefits, inequitable
land distribution, and the visible contrast in living
standards between the favored few and the impoverished
majority. Some of the 9,000 university students in
Nairobi are resentful over tight government control
over the universities, which had been closed for several
months last year because of student protests.
The bombings appear to have stimulated many false
telephone reports of bombs being placed in hotels and
public places. There have also been some extortion
attempts; Nairobi has its share of local underworld
types, as well as foreigners living by their wits.
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