STAFF NOTES: MIDDLE EAST AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000400030024-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 21, 2004
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: May 8, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Middle East
Africa
South Apia
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139
May 8, 1975
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MIDDLE EAST - AFRICA -- SOUTH ASIA
Israel-EC: Trade Pact . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
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Somalia-France: Signs of Growing Tei.sion . . . 4
Pakistan: Security Situation Improved
in Frontier Provinces , . . . . . . . . . . .
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Israel-EC
The EC and Israel expect to sign a free trade
agreement this weekend that will enter into force on
July 1.
It will be the first accord to be signed as part
of the EC's so-called Mediterranean policy. The agreement
provides for the gradual establishment of -an industri;.,J.
free trade area, a reduction in agricultural tariffs ,fnd
increased technical, scientific, and industrial coopera-
tion. It also allows Israel to apply for financial
assistance once similar arrangements are negotiated l::etween
the EC and Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan.
Italy continues to object to easing EC tariffs on
agricultural products that compete with Italy's. A. a
result, agricultural provisions of the accord will ;tot
come into effect until Rome's problems can -be ?reso'). ,?ed,
in part probably through higher community,,farm sub;: idies
for Italy. This also means that the.farm?section of the
agreement with Israel will not be activitated until the
negotiations with the Maghreb states, stalled over the
same issue, are concluded.
Nevertheless, for Israel, the agreement with the
EC could not come at. a better time. The- government,
in addition to expecting substantial economic benefits
to flow from the association, is pleased with- ti;; implied
broadening of its international polif J.cal posit; can as
it braces to resist pressures from the Arabs, t;.iarb US,
and some Europeans for a modification of its st.ind on
Middle East settlement issues.
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Somalia-France
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Signrs of 6',,owinq Tonr,ion
Tension between Franco and Somalia appears to
have increased recently following renewed efforts
by Somali President Siad to encourage independence
for the French Territory of the Afars and Issas on
the east coast of Africa. The French, obviously
concerned by some of Siad's public statements, have
stepped up their security precautions along the
border with Somalia and requested the withdrawal of
Somalia's consul general and vice consul from
Djibouti, the Territory's capital.
Somalia has traditional claims to the area,
including the port of Djibouti, because ethnic
Somalis make up a large part of the population.
President Siad has long made it clear that he con-
siders the French presence there intolerable. During
a iri.sit to Paris last autumn, Siad asked French
President Giscard to grant independence to the Ter-
ritory. In reply, Giscard referred to the referendum
held in 1967 in which 67 percent of the Territory's
37,000 voters voiced a desire to remain under French
rule.
Last February, Siad stepped up his polemics
against he French, claiming that people in the
Territory were being "massacred, deported and shot"
to prevent the expression of a popular desire for
freedom. More recently, Siad has had some su,r.ess
in enlisting at least the moral support of Arat
states for his campaign. Last month, the Arab
League Council passed a unanimous resolution urging
independence for the Territory and formed a minis-
terial committee to make contacts with France.
France has a strong interest in maintaining its
territorial presence and limited political influence
in the Indian Ocean area. In addition to sharing a
common desire with its Western allies to secure the
(Continued)
May 8, 1975
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oil-supply route around Africa from the Persian
Gulf, Paris has shown growing concern
that the Indian Ocean not be left in sole control
of the US and the USSR. The port of Djibouti will
also increase in economic importance after the Suez
Canal reopens next month.
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The French appear determined to remain in the
Territory; French forces stationed in Djibouti were
strengthened last summer and security precautions
along the Somali border have become stringent. A
major problem for the French forces is curbing
infiltration by Somalis who cross the border
illegally. The Somalis are attracted to Djibouti
by the relatively better prospects of employment
and higher living conditions. An influx of illegal
Somalis could soon tip the ethnic balance in the
Territory, against the pro-French Afar tribesmen who
cooperate with the French in controlling local
affairs.
Paris' commitment to retaining the Territory
was reflected in a visit late last month by the
French secretary of state for overseas territories.
In a major speech, he emphasized French concern
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in the area is also being expressed in the form of
new public works projects in and around the capital
city.
May 8, 1975
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Pakistan
Security Situation Improved in Frontier Provinceu
Prime Minister Bhutto's government continues to
make progress in consolidating its control in Pakistan's
politically sensitive wester~i border provinces.
Last week Bhutto installed a now provincial gov-
ernment in the North-West Frontier Province, ending
the direct rule by the central government he had im-
posed there last February following the assassination
of his chief political lieutenant in the province.
Bhutto apparently was able to lift direct federal rule
because the level of violence in the province has not
increased significantly since February. Many observers
had expected an upsurge of unrest following Bhutto's
suppression of the leading opposition party; Bhutto
claims the party was behind the assassination.
A number of the government's more militant opponents
in the province managed to avoid arrest in February and
could cause trouble in the future. Some of them reported-
ly are receiving guerrilla training in neighboring Afghanis-
tan, which supports their efforts to attain self-determination
for the frontier region. Pakistan's army, however, is prob-
ably capable of containing these dissidents.
Baluchistan, Pakistan's other troublesome western
border province, has been generally quiet since last fall.
A sizeable army presence, together with political maneuvering
by Bhutto's supporters and heavy new government spending on
economic development, has helped to keep the lid on. Por-
tions of the province had been disrupted in 1973 anca 1974 by
an insurrection on the part of tribesmen opposed to cpnfral
government control.
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