STAFF NOTES: MIDDLE EAST AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000400030026-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 29, 2005
• Sequence Number: 26
• Publication Date: May 12, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
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diddle East
Africa
youth Asia
Secret
139
No... 0669/75
May 12, .1475
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a
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Suez Canal: Oil Traffic . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Zaire: New Army Divisions . . . . . . . . . . 2
Iran-India: Oil Deal 3
May 12, 1975
SECRET
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Suez Canal
Oil Traffic
The planned reopening of the Suez Canal on
June 5 will add to the growing surplus of oil
tankers by shortening the haul for some Persian Gulf
oil. Tankers able to use the canal will be attracted
to it, because small savings in transport costs are
likely to accrue to shippers who buy volumes of
Persian Gulf crude small enough to be handled by
these ships. Charter rates are unlikely to drop
much further, however, because the glut of tankers
already has pushed the rates about as low as they
can go.
Although the canal's initial draft limit will
be somewhat less than the 38 feet prior to the closure,
the canal should be restored to the 38-foot limit
before the end of September. Ships as large as 50,000
tons can then transit fully loaded, and ships as large
as 1.50,000 tons can transit empty. TI'i volune of oil
traffic through the canal probably will reach an
annual rate of about, 65 million tons soon after the
38-foot depth is restored. This traffic would con-
sist -f 60 million tons (1.2 million barrels per day)
northb:aund to Europe and North America and as much as
5 million tons (100,000 barrels per day) of Soviet
oil moving south to the USSR's former markets in South
Asia.
Transport costs per ton-mile on tankers small
enough to use the canal are more than twice those on
very large crude carriers. Many US and European
purchasers of Persian Gulf oil, however, must use
small tankers because of depth limits at offloading
ports and the inabi:.ity of certain terminals and
refineries to absorb the huge cargoes carried by very
large carriers. Even if Suez tolls are double the
1967"level of 90 cents a ton (12 cents a barrel),
the opening of the canal will reduce transport costs
i
on con,,
g:1nents of less thai 100,000 tons.
May 12, 1975
SECRET
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Zaire
New Army Divisions
The Zairian army is reportedly recruiting men
for two new divisions from the youth wing of Zaire's
25X1 single national party, the Popular Movement of the
Revolution.I
Many older army officers are said to believe
that Mobutu is getting ready to retire or replace
them with younger officers who are personally loyal
to him. The older officers may well be right. Most
of them are probably as loyal to Mobutu as their
younger counterparts, but Mobutu may be leery of
trying to subject them to the political indoctrina-
tion he has recently prescribed for the army. Younger
officers have been receiving such indoctrination for
the past year or so as part of Mobutu's effort to
raise the army's "political consciousness" increase
25X1 its discipline.
May 12, 1975 2
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Iran-India
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strong diplomatic support in international
Iran has agreed to provide India with some
$140 million in financial assistance to help
New Delhi pay for imports of Iranian oil during
the year ending next March. The agreement
reportedly covers slightly more oil than the
48,000 barrels per day--about 15 percent of
India's oil imports--that Now Delhi got on
concessional terms from Tehran last year. Iran
has agreed to terms that are easier than those
provided last year.
India needs all the help it can get; this
year's $1,5 billion oil bill will take about one
fourth of India's projected export earnings.
The Indians have sought financial aid from
the major Persian Gulf oil suppliers, but thus far
this year, only Iran has come through. Oil
import concessions obtained last year--from Iran
and Iraq--were valued at $212 million.
Even though New Delhi is dismayed at the
reluctance of members of the organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries to be more
generous, India has continued :o give OPEC
May 12, 1975
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SECRET