STAFF NOTES: MIDDLE EAST AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000400030049-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 29, 2005
• Sequence Number: 49
• Publication Date: June 13, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
Middle East
Africa
youth Asia
Secret
j..~ ;J
No. 0691/75
June 13, 1975
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SECRET
MIDDLE EAST - AFRICA - SOUTH ASIA
Malagasy Republic: Military Tribunal's
Verdict Announced 3
Pakistan: Status of Tarbella Project . . . . . 5
June 13, 1975
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Malagasy Republic
Military Tribunal's Verdict Announced
The verdict of a military tribunal hearing the
case of 33 defendants accused of complicity in the
assassination last February of head of state Richard
Ratsimandrava will probably keep alive the ethnic
tensions that have troubled Madagascar since January,
The tribunal on June 12 found only three of the
defendants guilty and sentenced them to five years
hard labor and heavy fines. Those acquitted include
former president Tsiranana, socialist party leader
Andre Resampa, and Colonel Brechard Rajaonarison,
who led the revolt of a paramilitary police unit in
January. About 200 other defendants were granted
amnesty in May.
Almost all the defendants are members of coastal
tribes, the traditional rivals of the Merina tribe
of central Madagascar. Despite the absence of hard
evidence linking the bulk of the defendants to the
assassination, many Merina are likely to believe that
coastal members of the .uling military directory,
established after Ratsimandrava's assassination, used
behind-the-scenes influence to secure the release
of most of the accused.
The 18-member directory, which includes repre-
sentatives of the main tribal groups and all security
forces, is expected soon to establish a new government
and name a single head of government. The primary
task of the new government will be to find ways to
dampen the ethnic antagonisms that threaten to create
a serious split between the coastal-dominated gen-
darmerie and the Merin:;.-dominated army. It will also
have to deal with a sluggish economy and food short-
ages that have led to high-prices in the capital,
Tananarive, where most Marina live.
(Continued)
June 13, 1975
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Commander Didier Ratsiraka, a coastal tribes-
man and the leader of the directory's radical faction,
is the most likely choice to become head of govern-
ment. He harp support among both the coastals and
the Merina, although some Merina believe he was
primarily responsible for the tribunal's favorable
treatment of the coastal defendants. Another con-
tender is Major Soja, a gendarmerie officer who is
more moderate than Ratsiraka. He is currently minister
of rural development.
June 13, 1975
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Pakistan
Status of Tarbella Project
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Repair work on Pakistan's massive Tarbella
dam is ahead of schedule, and water may be available
from the dam to irrigate the rice and cotton crops
late this summer and the next winter wheat crop in
the fall.
Tarbella is not likely to bring self-sufficiency
in foodgrain to Pakistan for several years. Farmers
in the Indus Valley will have to develop the skills
for the more intensive cultivation Tarbella waters
will make possible. An increase in the next winter
wheat crop depends on use of high-yield varieties,
which in turn require a controlled water supply and
the careful application of fertilizer and pesticides.
Stocks of high-yield eeeds, fertilizer, and pesticides
are inadequate for the 9-million-ton harvest Islamabad
has targeted.
Sq-zabbling among the provinces has interfered
with planning the use of Tarbella waters. A top-
level committee is working on a plan for allocating
the waters, but we are not certain when, or even if,
a decision will be made. Under these circumstances,
the next winter wheat crop is not likely to be more
than 10 percent greater than the last crop. I
June 13, 1975 5
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