USSR: END OF JULY PROSPECTS FOR GRAIN PRODUCTION AND TRADE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000500160005-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 2, 2000
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: July 25, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

C h,~ ~ E R I B" ' 7 ~ - O ~pproved For. Rel ~~Od/0~1f~ i
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USSR: End of July ''Prospects ,for
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~onfidentiial
USSR: End of July Pro~~ectr
for Grin Production and' 7'rad~p
Confidential
ER IB 75-5
25 July 1975
Copy ~ ~ ~ ~ 4
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NATIONAL SECURITY IIJFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Claulfled by 013919
Exempt from General Declaulflcation Schedule
of E,~. 11632, axsmptlon cateporyi
?SB(1), (2), and ~3)
/tufomallcallyy declauL~ed on:
dote )mpoeelble fo dshrm)ne
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U5SR: CND O~ JULY 1'ROSPCCTS
fF~R GRAIN I'RODUCfIC~N AND TRADC
1. Crop prospects hove been cut sharply by continuation of a severe drought
in most of the USSR's spring brain area. We now estimate total grain production
at 185 milr~on metric tons, 15 million tons below our end-of-June forecast.
2. Cvcn at this date, the cstinultc is not certain. Unless the drought breaks,
the outlook for late maturing crops, such as corn, could worsen further.
3. A crop of 185 million tons is some 25 million tons below projected
ro~luircmcnts I'or uomestic use and export. The Soviets have negotiated in recent
weeks to buy 14-1/2 million tons of grain and may come back for more later.
T'irey are unlikely, however, to meet their entire grain deficit from imports, Cvcn
though they would have no difficulty linancing whatever purchases they choose
to make. Other means of filling the deficit include some slaughtering of livestock,
and reduction in feed rations, although the continued high priority of consumer
programs probably precludes any large cuts in domestic demand for grain. More
likely would be drawdowns in stocks.
4. Crowing conditions in the USSR's grain land have deteriorated during
the past twc months, sharply reducing the size of this year's crop and prompting
the Soviets to buy large quantities of brain. This publication uses weather data
through 22 July and available collatcra{ information to describe current crop
conditions, to update earlier estimates of the size of th; Soviet grain crop, and
to discuss recent Soviet grain-buying activity.
Note.: This publication was prepared by the Office of lconomic Research. It 25X1A
i.:~corporatcs materials and analysis supplied by the i/nvironment Analysis Staff' of
the Office of Geographic and Cartographic Research. Comments and queries
25X1A9a regarding this publication are welcomed and may be dire~,cd ?o
of the Office of Economic Research, Code 143, Extension 5107.
Confidential 26 July 1976
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Status of tl~c Crop
5. Weather during J~anc and the Grst three weeks of July has been unusually
dry. Scvcrc drought persisted in the central portion of the iJSSR -the Volga
~/alley, soutlicrn Urals, and parts of nortltcrn Kazakhstan -and spread into parts
of the northeastern Caucasus, the southern and eastern Ukraine, and northern
Kazakhstan (sec the map).
Winter Grains
6. We estimate winter grain production at about 67 million tons, somewhat
]x;low our earlier 70 million ton prediction. Crop conditions remain good in much
of the winter grain lands. In June, however, soil moisture in regions on the western
edge of the drought-stricken Volga Valley, where winter grains are grown, became
critically low. Although the crop was near maturity, yields suf!'ercd. Nevertheless,
our current forecast remains 3-1 /2 million to7s above the previuus record reached
in 1973 because of the large acreage sawn and very favorable winter weather, which
minimized winterkill.
Spring Grains
7. Crop conditions Dave sharply deteriorated in most of the spring grain
area since June. During the first ten days of July, about an inch of rain fell in
the southern and eastern Ukraine -important corn producing areas -and in parts
of the Volga Valley. The subsequent return of abnormally high temperatures and
low humidity, however, quickly reduced soil moisture to previous critically
low levels. In addition, the affected area moved farther east into northern
Kazakhstan. During the second decade of July, rain fell in the important spring
grain areas north of the Volga Valley, marginally improving crop prospects in these
regions.
8. In central Siberia, w}ticlt usually accounts for about 15% of all spring
gains, recent dryness may have helped rather than hurt the crop. A wet spring
had delayed sowing in this area, and the Higher than normal temperatures during
early July, while not seriously reducing soil moisture, accelerated crop development
and thus reduced the risk of major losses from early frosts.
9. On balance, however, the drought has dr~istically cut the spring grain
crop. This spring and summer have been tine driest since 1963 and 1965, when
the USSR's two worst crop failures occurred. Cumulative precipitation since the
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