TRENDS IN OPEC MARKET SHARES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000600040027-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 31, 2002
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: June 11, 1975
• Content Type: MF

07553'
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 11 June 1975
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. Peter M. Vieira
International Division
0~~l~l~L US-~ Of~~. s- o ~ s ~-~
Approved CENTPAL INTELLIGEPICE AGENCY 6088000600040027-4
General Accounting Office
SUBJECT Trends in OPEC Market Shares
In response to your request, we are forwarding the
attached report on recent trends in the OPEC import market.
The major developed countries captured nearly three-fourths
of the $15 billion increase in caorld sales to C?EC states
last year. The United States and Japan together accounted
for 40? of the increase in world sales to OPEC, improving
their combined position from 31?~ to 34% of the OPEC market.
As a group, the smaller developed countries claimed only
13~ of the OPEC market, compared with 16~ in 1973, while
the LDCs and Communist countries together held on to about
190 of the market. Table 3 indicates where the US and other
countries improved their market share. For example, the US
improved its market position rela-five to the big seven's
in Algeria, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and UAE.
Tf you need any further information, I can be reached on
IDS Code
25X1A9A
Multilateral Trade Negotiations
Task Force
Office of Economic Research
Attachment:
As stated
Distribution: (S-07553)
Orig & 1 - Addressee (Vieira)
1 - D/OER, SA/ER
?1 -? D/I
3 - St/P
~~ 2 - I /MIN
OER/I/MTN,~td~ t11 June 75)
25X1A9A
b~>>6-19~6 `
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 Approved For Release 2002/02/19: CIA-RDP86T00608R000600040027-4
GFFIC{~L G1S~ C~di.~~
' The major developed countries captured nearly three-
fourths of the $15 billion increase in world sales to OPEC
states last year. The value of the Big Seven's combined
exports to OPEC went up 81% from 1973, 2-1/2 times the
rate for their other exports. Their inroads into the OPEC
market were mainly at the expense of the other developed
countries. As a group, the smaller developed countries
claimed only 13~ of the OPEC market, compared with 16~
in 1973, while the LDCs and Communist countries tog ether
held on to about 190 of the market.
Key Beneficiaries
Most of the export gains among the major developed
countries went to the United States ar~d Japan. Together
they accounted for 400 of the increase in world sales to
OPEC, improving their combines. position from 31~ to 340
of the OPEC market. The rest of the major countries showed
little change in their market shares. France, West Germany,
and Canada gained a little while Italy and the United
Kingdom lost slightly.
US sales to OnEC were up by more than $3 billion
from 1973. More than half of the increase went to two
countries, Iran and. Venezuela. Roughly one-third of the
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additional sales of $1 billion to Iran were rilitary
?equipment, with another $0.5 billion divided between '
food .and transportation equipment. About half of the
increase in US sales to Venezuela consisted of machinery
and equipment; an additional one-thrid was Chemical products
and agricultural goods. The United States also sold _
several hundred million dollars worth of military goods
to Saudi Arabia and large amounts of capital goods and
food to all. OPEC countries.
Japan's success in the OPEC market was attributable
to (1) the mountinr, of an export drive and (2) the
combination of excess capacity and bulging inventories of
industrial goods, the result of depressed domestic sales.
Proximity to Indonesia allowed Japan to boost sales by
more than $0.5 billion. Another $1.3 billion of new
Japanese sales stemmed from the ability to deliver large
quantities of intermediate goods, structural steel,
machinery, and other capital equipmE~nt to other OPEC
members, notably Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq. Price
increases of roughly 500 on Japanese goods accounted
for a large. portion of the dollar gains.
Other Exporters
More than two-fifths of t}ie gain in France's sales
came with its farmer?colany, Algeria, where strong trade
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ties continue. West Germany raised sales c~ industrial
goods across the board with OPEC countries. The increase
in FRG sales would have been even higher than the recorded
74~ if~West Germany had not been heavily backlogged with
orders from the other developed countries through mid-1974.
Canadian gains were mainly from food sales.
Prospects
Total world sales to OPEC are expected to reach about
$50 billion this year. The major developed countries should
continue to dominate this growing market; the United
States and Japan should remain the chief suppliers, with
West Germany perhaps gaining in its market share. Competition
among the Big Seven is intense because of the prevalence of
excess capacity.
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Approved For Release 20(~~0~' 1' ~-~~I/~~P~~OQ608R000600040027-4
? ~
Billion $
Percentage
Share of the
1973
1974
Increase
Increase
United States
3.6
6.7`
3.1
21
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