MEMBERS OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS COMMITTEE OF U.S.-IRAN JOINT COMMISSION PLANNING TO ATTEND MEETINGS IN TEHRAN, FEBRAURY 9-10:

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000600050031-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 19, 2004
• Sequence Number: 31
• Publication Date: January 22, 1975
• Content Type: BRIEF

 ' __;__Approved. For Release 12004/10/28: CIA-RDP86T00608R00060005003%-$.. )
c1;0I , `D U:4, Fri: rQ cO::C?
STAT or, ter.; g ~ : ~ ; cy to
Lc 'n
c:. CC- r j'
C ,r.1.11r ~.
Jo. t Cc;,:;.issic n to
STAT
Distributicn: (S-Project 08306)
See attached page
1 - DICER. DD/OER. SAYER
STAT
(22 January 1975)
STAT
STAT
STAT
ILLEGIB
Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600050031-8
F)A%1 No. RCP~.ACES FORM 10- 101
I AUG 54 ~01 WMIC.+ MAY BE USED.
b - 0 pl'~ 0 C"I
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600050031-8
Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600050031-8
 Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600050031-8
THE IRANIAN ECONOMY -- AN OVERVIEW OF PAST DEVELOPMENTS
AND LOOI< AT FUTURE TRENDS
A WORD ABOUT THE SHAFT -- Without him, oil alone could not
have done the job
* At 55, he is at apex of 33 year career as monarch;
fully in co.-,nand at home anal important force
abroad. -
* Takes "King Business" seriously; works seven days
at it; share mind and grasp of details; elicits
advice; BUT he alone makes big decisions
Confident of future for Iran
* Strong alignment with US and West, yet suspicious
of foreign intentions -- throwback to earlier
economic and military domination.
THE ECONOMY -- PAST TRENDS
* Off to a shaky start in the 1950's -- nationalization
of oil, overthrow of monarchy, political dissention
at home and foreign threats -- troublesome period
of early 1960's - rampant inflation, subsequent
enforced retrenchment by IMF, and economic slowdown.
Enter the Shah's program for development.
* Early strategy for development of,industry based
on foreign assistance -- technology and credits.
* Shift from essehtially backward agricultural base.
Today, agriculture accounts for about 10% GNP
compared to 33t in 1960; industry 'up farm 11% to 18%;
oil has grown from 10% to about 50%.
Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600050031-8
 Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600050031-8
* G::? growth about 11% yr 1965-72 but has spurted
sinoc and in 1974 was about 40%. Oil a big'
factor but other industries as well
* Natural ras is expanding; petrochemicals growing;
and other manufacturing and exploitive industries
moving ahead.
* Domestic manufacturing, favored by protective
tariffs and captive market, now blossoming into
fully integrated output. Potential for,industry
with foreign assistance. A word about automotive
and Mack plant.
FUTURE ECONOMIC TRENDS
* Growth at 16% yearly seems reasonable for remaining
three years of current Five Year Plan ending
March 1978. No financial limitations on Iran -- oil
revenues more than sufficient to cover total
spending of-. about $67 billion during 1974-78.
* Demand for imports (about 26% yearly ircl'. inflation)
rise from about $9.4 billion in 1974 to $20
billion by 19 78 .
* Development favors petrochemicals, energy (oil and
nuclear) , steel communications, ;;.-id broad spectrum
of military s?ending.
* Iran is getting most of its new i;zdustry from the
West, spurring efforts with credits on occassion
(UK, France, Italy) . On occasion buying into Western
companies to get technology (Krupp of West Germany
7nA ch ern ;n _ F'r~nnR+ ~c F 11YnA~ n~~ fnY_,.n~1,~l.CS?^C~ nran1.um)..,
Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600050031-8
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600050031-8
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600050031-8
 Approved For Release 2004/10/28 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600050031-8
* Other -- Iran interest in sure line of industrial
raw materials. Currently, the need is most.pressing
and covers :aide variety of materials from cement
to aluminum. Surety of supply is ftremost to
Iranians and efforts made to tie-in credits with
deliveries -- eg. $1 billion advance to UK and
substantial credits to India for joint ventures
calling for supply to Iran.
GROWTH INHI3ITtu\ iS _ Not all can be solved by money nor
in a short time
* Recent sharp not likely -%L-:o continue as
bottlenecks have developed:
The Labor Force Situation -- Shortage of
700,000 technically stiilled plus need
for managers. Some 2 million more jobs
created by industry in next few years ---
women o; or