BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DATA ON NEWLY DESIGNATED MSAS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000600050047-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 19, 2004
• Sequence Number: 47
• Publication Date: May 20, 1975
• Content Type: MF

 Approved For Release 2004/10/28 CIA-RDP86T00608R000600050047-1
CENTRAL. I! J'1'lil..l_IC f NCF AGE14 Y
WA',rlrrdr~rc~rr,U.C:. 20.505
20 May 1.97!
MEMORANDUM l'OR: Mr. La1,wcrc1-,ce A. Dash
A:I: D/AA/:L' DC
Department of Sta 1 o
SU)3JECT Balance of Payments Data
on New:Ly Designated MSAs
Attached is the series of tables which you
requested on the newly designated MSA countries.
Several of these entities have little in the w,iy
of formal reporting systems. We have done our
best with what data exist. Any questions on these
tables should be referred to
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Attachment:
as stated.
C,0Nf-I'DENTIAI...
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6-191'
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MBNO1U\Nl)UM ]'O]2: M.r . J,JIlel-clice A. Dash
717' D/AA/:L I.)C
])epax-Ltnent of SLa Lc
Ba1.ancc of: ].'ayinc.t)l:;; Data
on New] y Desicjna i:cd M S71.;
DISTR7:I3U'I'TON: (S-DFB.:v )
Orig. & 1 - Addressee
1 - D/OLR, DD/OER, S71/] R
. CONFIDENTIAL
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Million US $
1973/74 a/
1974/75 a/
Estimated
1975/76 a/
Exports
7.60
192
200
Imports
-190
-226
-286
Trade balance
-30
-34
-86
Services and transfers
29
28
32
Current balance
-1
-6
-54
Long-term capital
15
7
22
Basic balance
14
1
-32
a. Fiscal year started and ended in March of the years shown.
The Afghan economy, heretofore insulated through
trade agreements from inflated world market prices, will
encounter a serious balanc of payments deficit this
year following renegotiation of trade agreements for
imports of Soviet sugar, fertilizer and petroleum.
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CON 11DE1^'JTP~IC.
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~~.'; ~..I'J tii
Million US $
FY 1974 El/
E-st:imated
FY 1973 a/
(6 months)
FY 1975 a/
Exports
133
70
271
Imports
-150
-113
-294
Trade balance
-17
-43
-23
Services and transfers
-8
-6
-33
Current balance
-25
-36
-56
Long-term capital
45
52
47
P.asic balance
20
16
-9
a. Balance of payments data are - available, only for. Burmese fiscal
years. Due to a change in fiscal year timing, 1974 fiscal year is
only a 6 month period, as follows:
1974 1975
10/72-9/73 10/73--3/74 4/74-3/75
Burma slashed imports over the past 10 years in
an attempt to stay within the bounds dictated by fluctuating
and largely declining exports. Import restrictions
are so severe that economy has been paralyzed by shortages
of imported parts and equipment. Yet, the projection
for FY 1975 is for a deficit.
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Nr tt II
lUil~~ I ,'
I3urunda.
Million US $
Estimai:ed
1973
1974
1975
Exports
31
2, 8
30 to 35
Imports
-29
-42
-45 to -50
Trade balance
'?14
-10 to -20
8
5 to 10
Current balance
-6
0 to -15
Net capital
Overall balance
Neg'l Neg'1
-6 0 to -1.5
High prices for oil and other imports and reduced
income from coffee exports produced a $6 million deficit
in Burundi's balance of payments in 1974. The deficit,
the first since 1968, probably %i.Lll be repeated in 1975.
Production of coffee, the priri-:i.pal export, is expected
to decline slightly and rising prices for manufactured
goods and machinery can be expected to push up import
costs. Increasing transportation and service charges
for shipping via crowded Tanzanian routes will worsen
the outflows.
Higher oil prices -- the original criterion for
determining what nations are most serioug1?v--a-f_-f-_ecttnd -
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-CONFIDENTIAL
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have not been a major cause of the swing. Most of the
increase in the import bill was caused by higher prices,
for machinery and consumer goods. Although the cost
of oil. nearly doubled, from $1.6 million in 1973 to
$3.1 million in 1974, some of the :increase was due to
a rise in volume because of depleted inventories the
year before. And oil in 1974 still only accounted for
7% of the total import bill; if other prices had remained
steady, the DOP would have continued in surplus despite
the higher prices for oil. The rise in oil costs --
$1.5 million -- accounted. for only 12% of the total rise
in the cost of imports.
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2,a L~o Verde 7'slands
Mi1.1a.on US $
Estimated
1973 1.374 1975
Exports 2 NA NA
Imports -40 NA NA
Trade balance -38 NA NA
Services and transfers
Current balance
Long-term capital
Basic balance
Almost no information is available on the Cape
Verde Islands; the data presented for 1973 apparently
represent a UN estimate. There seems little doubt
that Cape Verde is in tight financial straits. It reportedly
has suffered seven years of drought and does not have
the wherewithall to buy food to prevent famine. Portur,al
has pledged $12 million in aid for January-June 1975.
Cape Verde's consumption of oil, except of oil bunkering,
probably is small.
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Go !`'J F1 DF N1'1A I-
Ec >>t
Million U.3 $
Estimated
Estimated
1973
1974
1975
Exports
1,010
1,400
1,000
Imports
-1,586
-3,022
-3,522
Trade balance
-576
-1,622
-2,522
Services and transfers
896
904
1,150
Current balance
320
-718
-1,370
Long-term capital (net)
-71
634 a/
NA
Basic balance
249
-84
NA
a. Consists mainly of short term credits subsequently rolled
over.
Exports are expected to be reduced in value in
1975 primarily because of reduced demand in the depressed
Western European markets. Imports will grow to accommodate
consumer demand for relief from war-time austerity
if the requisite financing can be found. Services and
transfers were insufficient to forestall a large deficit
in the current account last year, that is likely to be
increased.
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Mozambic ue
Million i
);; $
1974
Preliminary
.
Estimated
1973
Estimates
1975
Exports
228
225
Imports
-341
-450
Trade balance
-113
-225
Net services and transfers
125
Current balance
Long-term capital
7
-100
NA
Basic balance
-22
NA
Although data are not yet available, 4t seems certain
that Mozambique's chronic balance of payments deficit
increased sharply in 1974 and 1975. Civil strife disrupted
production and caused transportation bottlenecks that
reduced income from rail and port services provided to
South African and Rhodesian exports. The strife also
caused substantial short-term capital outflows associated
with the emigration of white citizens and with the net
repayment of short term trade credits, largely to Portugal.
The proportion of the balance of payments deterioration,
however, that was attributable to highe~,~
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originally tlhhe criterion for determining which nations
were "Most Seriously Affected" -- probably was small..
A portion of the higher costs for crude would have been
offset by higher prices received for. exports of pr odiucts
from the Mozambique refinery. Mozambique's own consumption
of products is small, about 15,000 barrels per day.
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Uganda
Million L JS
Ugandan
Government
Provisional
Estimate
19'72
1973
1974
Exports
293
Imports
-218
Trade balance
75
98
32
Services and transfers
-61
-24
-35
Current balance
14
74
Net capital
-8
-82
-36
Overall balance
6
-8
Uganda suffered from a decline in export
receipts
in
1974 due to a lower volume of exports of coffee, cotton,
copper and tea because of declining production and
transportation difficulties. Imports also fell as the
government discouraged imports of nonessent-.als. The
capital account deficit would have been higher but for
drawings on a Libyan loan and the Arab Aid Fund for
Africa.
CONFID JTIA .
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.)U W 8 i.,?~:.~1w G IJ
Milli
1.973
Es
timated
1974
on U5 $
Estimated
1975
Exports
6.9
1.2.3
NA
ILru)orts
-21.9
-26.5
NA
Trade balance
-15.0
-14.2
NA
Services and transfers
9.4
9.2
NA
Current balance
-5.6
-5.0
NA
Long-term capital
2.7
2.6
NA
Basic balance
-2.9
-2.4
NA
Western Samoa has had large trade deficits over
the past several years (65% of GNP in 1973), because
of its heavy dependence on only 3 exports -- copra, cocoa,
bananas. Until last year, exports had hardly increased
at all since 1960, while import needs have grown yearly.
Oil is not more than 7% of the value of imports, even
after price increases.
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Footnotes to the M5i1 I?xcrci.no
1% has the definition of an MSA nation been broadened
Lo include all those in trouble from whatever cause,
including a genera]. rise in import prices since the oil
embargo?
?./ Western Samoa is viewed by the IMP as a new nation*;
we show it in the date book as founded in 1962. No
mention is made of the territorial status of Mozambique
and its pending independence.
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