LDC COMMODITY STUDY

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
U
Document Page Count: 
42
Document Creation Date: 
December 16, 2016
Document Release Date: 
December 8, 2004
Sequence Number: 
14
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
August 7, 1975
Content Type: 
MF
File: 
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PDF icon CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5.pdf2.23 MB
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STAT Approved For Release 2005/01/10 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 !JNCLASSIFIED 514 6'3 O 7 AUGUST 1975 MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD SUBJECT: LDC COMMODITY STUDY THE ATTACHED MATERIAL WAS COORDINATED BY FINAL DRAFT WAS HANDCARRIED TO SAMUEL HART, DEPUTY DIRECTOR, ECONOMIC RESEARCN AND ANALYSIS, INR/STATE. MR. HART PASSED THE MATERIAL PREPARED BY OER AND DATA PREPARED BY INR TO THE UNDER SECRETARY OF STATE, ECONOMIC AFFAIRS, MR. CHARLES ROBINSON, STAT Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014;5 UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 - W = 'Ill i7 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Less Developed Countries: Trade Position in Major Non-Oil Raw Materials LDC Share of World Trade 1972-1974 Number of LDC Suppliers Accounting for at Least World Trade Share of World Production 1972-1974 (Percent) 70% of Total Trade (Percent) 70%-100% Coffee 97 10 72 Sugar 71 30 27 Rubber 98 2 91 Cocoa 100 4 78 Tea 83 6 58 Tin 81 4 85 Bananas 92 9 20 Bauxite 75 9 , 45 50%-70% Phosphate Rock 64 50 Copper ~9 64 Cotton 57 32 Alumina 50 35 Less than 50% Timber 26 8 Iron Ore 40 44 Oils (Vegetable and 30 25 Marine) - Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Less Developed Countries: Selected Economic Data Population GNP/Capita 1974 Real QUIP Growth Real ( P 1 741 Total Efts Non-Oil Raw Material Ex orts 1969-1974 99 1974 p Percent (Mullions) (US $) (P 1974 Majo ercent) (Percent) (Million US $) (Mullion US $) r dlti Or ~-ts Bangladesh I'xii 77 90 -0.5 11.5 372 a 600 150 1 7 168 Jute . 1.0 4,200 1,010 Tea 3Y 7 Iron are 4 Sugar 7 Indone4ia 133 120 7.8 10.0 7,430 1,780 Rubber 6- Palm oil 2 Tin 2 Malaysia 12 720 6 8 I-bod 10 . 6.0 4,53a 2,220 Itibber 28 Tirber 15 Tin 15 Pakistan 68 120 3 5 5 0 Palm oil . 11 . . 1,026 520 Cotton 4 Philippines 42 330 6 4 5 ' Rice . .9 2,720 2,260 Sugar 20 17* Ti thar 25 16 Oilseeds 7 Iron ore 1 Approved For.Relea$e 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 -. ...,.,?, ., _. _?._ ._ ?.. Approved Forte qo,2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Less Developed Countries: Selected Economic Data % (Continued) GM/Capita Real GVP Grath Peal G~ Greer- Total EX-ports Non-Oil Raw Material Exports Percen't Populatior. 1974 1969-1974 1974 1974 1974 :'major o= (Millions) (US $) (Percent) (Percent) (Million US $) (Million US $) Comm ities Eti x xrtts Asia (Con't) Thailand 41 290 6.3 3.9 2,480 2,210 ?e 10 Tin 6 Corn 12 Teak _ Rice n.a. 19 Turkey 800 7.4 7.5 1,532 904 Chsa ore 22 Cotton 18 Tobacco 13 col i Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Approved For, Release. 2005/01/10 : CIA-RD086T00608R000600070014-5 Less Developed Countries: Selected Economic Data (Continued) W /Capita Real GNP Growth Real GVP Growth Total E worts Non-Oil Raw Material Exports Percent Population 1974 1969-1974 1974 1974 1974 ;Major (Millions) (US $) (Percent) (Percent) (Million US $) (Million US $) Camncliti E _ es _{rcrts Latin America Argentina 25 1,400 4'. 5 3,850 2,960 Grains 28* at 20 - j?:ao1 --7 830 10.2 9.6 7,970 5;100? Sugar 16 Coffee So-/oeans Iron ore u u 7 Chile Cocoa 3 880 2.9 5.2 2,040 1,760 Coptxr .76- Nitrates 3 Colombia Iron are -3 510 6.4 5.,6 1,200 740 Coffee 52 Sugar 7 Guyana Bananas 2 543 4.1 7.5 .270 270 Sugar 49 Rice 8 Bauxite 26 +.-: --z 8 1,010 6.6 4.3 730 680 e 20 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 7 pproved For Releese 2005/01/10 : C A *86T00608R000600070014-5 Table 2 Less Developed Countries: Selected Economic-Data (Continued) Non-Oil _ Real GNP Real GP Total Raw Material GNP/Capita Growth Growth Exports Exports Perce Population 1974 1969-1974 1974 1974 1974 Major of (Millions) (US $) ` (Percent) (Percent) (Million US $) (Million US $) Carmodities F:.`r Latin 1'.mer'ica (Can't) MSpYICO 56 1,160 6.2 6.0 2,760 1,040 Sugar Co; FCC Venezuela 12 2,280 4.3 5.1 10 800 5 , 240 ~r ire Coffee Cocoa Sugar 3* negl ~ 'Iegi negl Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Approved For elea e 2 05101/10 ,: CIA- 86T06668R0006d00T0014-5' Less Developed Countries: Selected Economic Data - (Continued) W /Capita, Population 1974 (Millions) (US $) Africa Egypt 36 280 Ghana 10 280 Guinea 4 70* Ivory coast 5 770 13 180* M rocco 17 310 Tunisia 6 610 5 440 Nigeria 62 380 . Data are for 1973. Real C NP Real G-1P Total Gra,ith Gra%Tth Exports 1969-1974 1974 1974 (Percent) (Percent) (Million US $) 1.9 2.7 2.5 4.0 3.0 2.7 1,510 710 50*- 8.C 13.0 1,230 7.5 6.5 600 5.0 10.0 1,750 8.7 11.0 ?920 700 Cotton 40 670 Cocoa 61 50 Alumina 86 1,170 Coffee _ 23 Tiirbe 16 Cocoa 26 360 Coffee 18 Tea 9 1.160 Phosphate Rock 56 Citrus Fruit 6 Fish 3 180 Olive oil 16 Phosphate Rock 3-0 1,280 Copper 66 1,380 Copper 93 :Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Table 3 Major Raw Material Exporters, 1974 Estimate Million Metric Tons Percent Copper (concentrates & metals) 4.6 Chile Peru Zaire Zambia Papua/New Guinea Philippines Australia Canada Other Tin (concentrates & metals) Malaysia Bolivia Thailand Indonesia Zaire Other Iron Ore Australia Brazil Canada Sweden Liberia India France Chile Peru Jamaica Australia Surinam Guyana Yugoslavia Dominican Republic Malaysia Guinea Other 0.2 100 19 5 10 15 4 5 3 14 25 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Table 3 Major Raw Material Exporters, 1974 Estimate Million Metric Tons Percent Alumina Australia 8.2 Jamaica 31 Guinea 28 Surinam 9 Guyana 15 Other 3 14 Phosphate Rock Morocco 55.3 United States 34 USSR and North Vietnam 23 Nauru; Oceania, 13 Christmas Islands Tunisia 8 Spanish Sahara 4 Other 4 14 Coffee Brazil 3.45 Colombia 23 Angola 15 Ivory Coast 8 Uganda 7 Cameroon 6 El Salvador 3 Mexico 3 Guatemala 3 Zaire 3 Other 3 26 Sugar Cuba 21.5 Brazil 25 Australia 18 Philippines Dominican Republic 7 South Africa 5 Other 4 41 . ~w~-.w...~-_ .~.s.-+w ?, w'~"^!.~'...rlw'.,~[1nr~~.~. ~.v~}~.A~?e~.i~T?~ ~,~,Y~} ~~ Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Rubber Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Sri Lanka Other Cocoa* Ghana Nigeria Ivory Coast Brazil Cameroon Ecuador Other .Oilseeds Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Senegal Ivory Coast Zaire Argentina Other Million Metric Tons 1.07 3.02 (oil content) Percent 48 26 12 4 10 27 16 15 12 8 5 17 32 14 9. 3 3 2 2 35 * 1973/74, 1 October-30 September. Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Table 4 Selected LD.C Raw Material Prices Aluminum 1 Copper 2 Tin 3 Cocoa beans4 Coffee 5 Cotton 6 Sugar 7 SUS Cents Per Pound) 1965 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1 7 1974 9 1 24.50 58.65 176.51 27.18 66.29 154.91 28.72 63.89 163.69 29.00 49.27 159.44 26.45 25.33 48.54 80.80 170;90 218.15 34.06 90.41 317.20 39.00 55.60 308.10 Agricu ura US $ per Metric Ton) 381 1,007 754 591 712 1,420 2,167 1,641 992 909 1,224 1,002 1,141 1,458 1,528 1,452 646 627 654 754 806 1,430 1,339 1,047 47 74 83 100 164 212 661 376 1. Virgin unalloyed ingot at Newyork. 2. .London Metal Exchange electrolytic wirebars. 3. London Metal Exchange. 4. Fran Accra, N.}w York spot. 5. Fran Santos, No. 4, New York spot. 6. American, Meiphis Territory, strict puddling, 1 1/16 inches, c.i..f. Liverpool. ool. 7. Cane raw, 96?, spot, f.o.b. and stowed, ports of origin, to world market. A, roved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 ,LDC Raw Material Exports: Major Markets, 1974 4.. Asia , United West States Europe Japan Other ,.Bangladesh 3taw jute 2 37 4 57 ?India Tea 4 39 1 56 Iron ore -- 1 78 21 Sugar 55 -- -- 45 Dilseeds 1 42 3 54 Indonesia Tin 19 41 34 6 -`Wood ' -- 3 80 171/ Rubber 25 18 3 541/ Nl7.aysia Rubber 16 26 7 511/ ,,2in 28 33 23 161/ :Dilseeds 12 30 2 561/ Pakistan 'taw cotton 1 6 20 73 Rice negl. 1 -- 99 Phai. ppines ** Sugar Timber 2 7 71 20 Capper fi? 3 88 3 Oilseeds 29 54 12 5 Iron ore 99 1 Tha `land Rubber 7 5 54 34 Tin Corn Teak 40 32 22 41 6 59 22 24 8 46 Turkey Chrome 27 66 7 Cotton 1 58 41 Tobacco Wool 32 39 100 12 17 C*reals 57 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Incl.1ides shipments to Singapore 'for re-export. 1. Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Table 5 LDC Raw Material Exports: Major Markets, 1974 (Continued) United States West Europe Japan Other Latin America Argentina Grains negl. 49 Brazil Sugar 15 6 4 75 Coffee 27 51 3 19 Soybeans negl. 75 7 18 Iron ore 8 54 30 8 Cocoa 50 19 -- 31 Chile Copper 14 44 15 27 Nitrates 33 35 3 29 Iron ore 3 3 93 1 Colombia Coffee 42 n.a. n.a. n.a. Sugar 53 n.a. n.a. n.a. Bananas 40 n.a. n.a. n.a. Guyana* Sugar 24 66 -- 10 Bauxite 46 39 -- 15 Alumina 12 88 -- -- Jamaica Bananas 3 64 -- 33 Sugar 32 56 4 8 Bauxite 100 -- -- Alumina 34 50 -- 16 Mexico ** Coffee 72 17 1' 10 Sugar 99 -- -- 1 Cotton 14 9 46 31 Venezuela* Iron ore 67 33 -- Coffee 80 20 -- Cocoa 25 65 9 1 Sugar 41 37 -- 22 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 't'able 5 LDC Raw Mat:crial Exports: Major. Markets, 1974 (Continued) Percent Africa United Stites West 1:uro e Ja an Other Egypt Cotton negl. 53 22 25 Ghana** Cocoa 18 44 7 31 Guinea (not available) Ivory Coast* Coffee Timber Cocoa Kenya Coffee Tea Morocco Phosphate rock Citrus fruit Fish Tunisia Olive oil Phosphate rock 29 23 50 87 65 10 11 13 9 75 1 15 12 80 8 60 40 85 15 80 20 75 25 65 35 negl. 90 2 8 negl. 51 31 18 * Commodity data are for 1972. ** Commodity data are for 1973. Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 NATt1_!_A1, ttU13t)i;it Mcit?kr,t: Prot i 1c' M,-iJnyr;.ia and tndonesi.7 are the main producers of natural rubber, accountitq for about three-fourths of world production in 1974, w4th Thai land and Sri Lanka accounting for most of the remainder. Only a miniscule part of production in these countries is used domestically. The rest is exported primarily to the United States, Western Europe, and Japan with lesser amounts going to the USSR and the PRC. Most of the natural rubber trade in handled through long-term contracts between the producers and consuming firms in the US, Western Europe, and Japan and state trading corporations in the case of the USSR and the PRC. The volume of exports is usually specified in these contracts with prices set to reflect changing market conditions. Chronic dissatisfaction with low world prices led to the formation of the International Rubber Study Group in 1946 which included producers and consumers of both natural and synthetic rubber. In 1971 the ineffectiveness of the Group ,Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5 lr`d SOU t:h~ t Af;.i.at; I,t c~~luc tit fc, t;eade~l Icy lt:sl_ayt; I41, t CJ Form a now rjroui) a_ the Af;r,oc'3dtion -jr lSatur.aI ltul,ber t'roducin(! Countrirf;. Thuf; far, the A nf;ur..i alion hafj concenLratc'cl on Leehn.jcal Matter,, although the memberci have dircuf;r cd the pur; .ibil..i ty of joint action in regard to natural rubber marketing, freight rates, and f;toc),.- Epi ling. Recent Trends The demand for natural rubber has accelerated in recent years. US consumption increased 6% in 1973 and 4% in 1974 compared to virtually no gain during the 1960s. Even during this recession year, US consumption is expected to increase 1.5% and world consumption, 4%. This improve- ment in demand mainly reflects the greater use of radial tires and off-the-road vehicle tires. The average radial tire uses 35% natural rubber, the bias tire only 25%. More recently, natural rubber's cost position vis-a-vis synthetics has improved because higher petroleum prices haveiriven up the production costs of synthetic rubber. Preliminary estimates indicate a 50,000 metric ton shortfall between supply and demand of natural rubber in 1975. This amount could easily be covered by the 132,.000 ton US stockpile, but release of more than --