EASTERN EUROPE: ECONOMIC RESULTS AND PLANS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070019-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 8, 2004
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: October 21, 1975
• Content Type: MF

STAT
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
? WASHINGTON, D.C. 20505
C ~ P/0 E - (r) ?,j 6-
21 October 1975
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. Eric Lapp
Office of the Special Representative
for Trade Negotiations
SUBJECT Eastern Europe: Economic Results and Plans
Attachments:
1. Eastern Europe: Economic Results and Plans
2. Statistical data and selected articles.
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1.. Attached are unclassified data on economic develop-
ment in Eastern Europe and a discussion of economic, plans
for 1976-80 prepared by of this branch.
2. If you have any questions, please call
STAT
STA
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Eastern Europe: Economic Results and Plans
Economic Results
See attached data from East European statistical yearbooks
and other sources.
Foreign Trade
Note that on the attached table "East European Trade,'
1974", data for Romania - and the total'-- have been revised on
the basis of recently received Romanian foreign trade statistics.
Economic Plans, 1976-80
Most of the targets announced so far by the East Europeans
are tentative and are subject to change as the impact of world
market conditions and higher CEMA prices may cause them to
readjust at least some of Lheir goals.
Bulgaria
The preliminary draft plan for 1976-80 sets the following
goals:
Gross industrial production is to increase
at an average annual rate of 10-12%.
Investments in the five year period are to be
about 80% greater than in the previous five
years. Bulgaria reportedly hopes to devote
three-quarters of investment to the moderniza-
tion and reconstruction of industry.
Foreign trade turnover is
15-17% a year.
o grow an average
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In the spring of 1974, Bulgaria's Council Chairman Todor
Zhivkov noted that the 1976-80 plan requires the import of a
large volume of machinery and equipment and that it would be
desirable if some of this were to come from the United States.
Czechoslovakia
The high cost of'imports of raw materials and industrial
goods from the West and of oil and other raw materials from the
Soviets reportedly has led the Czechoslovaks to lower their
1976-80 goals. Economic growth will be further limited by the
acute labor shortage, outdated plant and equipment, and worsen-
ing trade deficits.
The Czechoslovaks have set the following rough preliminary
targets:
1980
(1975=100)
National income 128
Gross industrial pro-
duction 134
Engineering industry 150
Building materials 141
industry
Chemical industry 137
Gross agricultural pro- 115
duction
Personal consumption 125
Average wages 113-116
Exports 143
The plan is to he finalized at the 15th Party Congress in
1976.
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April
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The consumption of primary power is to grow 17% between
1.975 and 1980. One-third of this increase is to come from, domestic
sources. The Czechoslovaks expect nuclear power stations
to provide one-fourth of the 20 billion..kwh i.r,crease in electric
power.
The Czechoslovaks hope to import over t`:-he next five years
$3.5 billion worth of machinery and technology from the West in
an effort to modernize and renovate obsolete plant and equip-
ment. In 1971-73, such imports ever jed $453 million a year.
East Germany
We have nothing on East Germany's 1976-80 plan.
Hungary
No plan targets have been announced yet. An article
in the Hungarian Press gives some idea of possible 1976-80
goals.* The author presents what he calls "the possible,
highly probable, and desirable traject,:~;:y of national economic
development based on model computations:"
'translation of "The Model System of the Fifth Five-Year Plan"
by Gusztav Bager, Kozgazdasagi Szemle, (Budapest) No. 5, May 1974.
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1976-]980
Average Annual Increase
In Percent
Gross social product
6.0
- 6.5
Gross industrial production
6.5
- 7.0
Gross agricultural production
2.5
- 4.4
National income
5.7
- 6.2
Net industrial production
5.1
- 7.3
Net agricultural production
2.7
- 3.8
Consumption
5..0
- 5.5
Investment
5.0
- 5,8
Number employed
0.7
- 1.0
Exports
7.8
-10.8
Imports
7.2'
- 8.6
Poland
The Poles have stated that in drawing up the 1976-80
plan, they will try to link economic growth. with tangible
increases in the standard of living. They see two main
requirements: better meat supplies and an improved housing
situation.
The main targets of the 1976-80 plan will be decided
at the 7th Party Congress to be held on 8 December. At its
4 September plenum the party central committee presented the
following guidelines.
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National income
Gross industrial production
Electric engineering industry
Chemical industry
Timber and paper industry
Building materials industry
Light industry
Gross agricultural production
Livestock production
Sales of goods to the population
Sales of services to tha popula-
tion
Deliveries of food to the market
Average real wages
Exports to CEMA countries
Imports from CEMA countries
1980
(1975=100)
140 - 142
148 - 150
165 - 167
168 - 170
146 - 148
142 - 1.44
141 - 143
115 - 116
116 - 118
142 - 145
157 - 160
135 - 137
116 - 118
161
The goals for the output of individual products are as follows:
Hard coal extraction
Steel
Electric power
Cement
200 million metric tons
22 million metric tons
132 billion kwh
Nearly 29 million metric tons
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Investment in 1976-80 is to be 37-40% over the 1971-75
level. This represents a considerable slowdown in growth.
Preliminary data indicate that in 1971-75 investment will be
roughly twice that in 1966-70. The Poles claim that a large
part of economic growth in 1976-80 will come from the huge
investments made in the preceding five years.
Romania
The directives of the Eleventh Congress on the 1976-30
plan are attached. As indicated in Party Secretary Nicolae
Ceausescu's speech of 23 July, some of these goals have since
been revised:
New Targets
National income (1980/75)
165
Gross industrial production
(1980/75)
170
Gross agricultural production
(1976-80/1971-75) 134-136
Grain output (average annual) 21 million tons
Investment (1976-80/1971-75)
179
E::ports (1980/1975)
190
Imports (1980/1975)
160
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STAT
MEMORANDUM FOR:
Distribution: (5.09159)
Original & 1 - Addressee (with attach ents)
1 - D/OER (without attachment 2)
17 11
Note: Attachment #2 is simply a collection of
statistical data and related articles
from open-source materials. serving as
back-up information.
(DATE)
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