AFGHANISTAN: PRELIMINARY 1986 AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T01017R000100800001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 19, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 25, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

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DATE
DOC NO
P&PD
OCR 3
2 5 APR 1965
MEMORANDUM FOR: Robert Peck
Deputy Assistant Secretary, Near Eastern and
South Asian Affairs
Department of State
Chief, Strategic Resources Division, Office of
Global Issues
SUBJECT: Afghanistan: Preliminary 1986 Agricultural
Outlook F-1
1. The attached memorandum is a preliminary outlook for
agriculture in Afghanistan in 1986. It focuses on weather
conditions thus far, water availability for the remainder of the
season, the livestock herds, and road conditions.
2. A more comprehensive study of
agriculture is forthcoming. It will ad
fighting on agricultural output and com
agricultural sector in the five year pe
th
dr
pa
ri
e state of
ess the im
re perform
ods before
Afg
pact
ance
and
han
of t
of t
afte
he
he
r t
he
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3. This report
is ba
se
d o
n
analys
is
of
25X1
meteorological da
ta.
Co
mme
nt
s and
qu
estions ar
e we
lcome
an
d
25X1
may be addressed to t
he Ch
ie
f,
Ag
ricult
ur
al Assessm
ents
Bran
ch,
OGI,
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Attachment:
Afghanistan: Preliminary 1986 Agricultural Outlook
GI M 86-20103, April 1986
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SUBJECT: Afghanistan: Preliminary 1986 Agricultural Outlook
OGI/SRD/AAB (25 April 1986)
Distribution:
1 - Addressee
1 - Ted Andrews, State
3 - OGI/EXS/PG
5 - CPAS/IMC/CB
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Afghanistan: Preliminary 1986 Agricultural Outlook
Abundant rain during March has gotten the winter wheat in
the dryland areas of Afghanistan off to a good start. If
precipitation in April is normal, the abundant March rainfall
combined with the melt from mountain snowfields should replenish
the reservoirs and provide sufficient water for the irrigated
winter wheat and summer crops as well. However, it is too early
in the crop season to make a quantitative estimate of 1986 grain
output.
Evidence from Soviet and Afghan sources indicates that
livestock numbers have stabilized at relatively high levels over
the past six years and should provide adequate meat output for
the population. Sheep and goats, the main source of red meat,
are widely dispersed and generally located in areas remote from
the fighting. In our view, the existence of the large herds is
substantiated by the high'level of wool exports, which according
to published Soviet statistics, were continuing as late as
The condition of the road system, essential to the movement
of foodstuffs within the country and from the USSR, varies
widely. Although several bridges have been destroyed along its
route, the primary road running north from Kabul to the Soviet
border is serviceable and is being maintained. The primary road
running south from Kabul to Qandahar is in very poor condition,
and it appears that little effort is being made to maintain it.
The secondary roads are in disrepair everywhere.
Background
Afghanistan produces some 85 percent of its food and
industrial crops on irrigated land. Water for the irrigation
system comes primarily from the snow-fed rivers flowing out of
the central mountain region, and is augmented by spring rains.
Because little rainfall occurs after April, the rivers depend on
snow melt to maintain their flow during the late spring and
summer, when the demand for water is high. As a result, snow
accumulation during the winter is an important factor determining
crop production, especially summer crops, in Afghanistan.
Equally vital to Kabul's crop output is the proper
functioning of the country's franile irrigation netwe-rk_
it is still operating normally in most parts of the
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GI M 86-20103
April 1986
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country.' Canal cleaning operations were observed in many areas
and actual water flow can be observed where irrigation activities
are beginning. As we have indicated in earlier reports, in the
provinces bordering Pakistan and Iran, where large numbers of
farms have been abandoned because of the intense fighting, the
irrigation system is non-functional.
Weather Summary
Analysis of meteorological data2 (Figure 1) indicates that
rainfall during March 1986--a critical month for winter wheat--
averaged about 75 percent higher than during March 1985.
Furthermore, Landsat showed abundant snowfall in the mountains
during the winter and major rivers such as the Kabul and Qonduz
were observed flowing at levels 25X1
equal to or slightly greater than at this time in 1985. Other
major rivers, the Helmand and Herat for example, are flowing at
considerably higher rates than last year. The Gahzni and Kabul
reservoirs, are still filling from the March rains. 25X1
Preliminary Outlook for the 1986 Grain Crop
Although it is far too early in the crop season to
quantitatively estimate 1986 grain production in Afghanistan,
both the irrigated winter wheat and the dryland winter wheat
crops will be in good-to-excellent condition if April rainfall
approaches normal. Wheat is the staple crop of the Afghan diet
and winter wheat accounts for 80 percent of total output.
The outlook for Afghanistan's summer crops--mainly corn,
rice, cotton, vegetables and fruit--is also favorable. Barring
extreme conditions, the mountain snowpack, which appears at least
normal this year should provide adequate irrigation water through
the summer months. While the fighting has reduced the amount of
land under wheat cultivation in the eastern provinces--we estimate
the reduction has been less than 5 percent--a preliminary review
of Afghan statistics indicates that the loss may have been offset
by shifting land previously sown to labor-intensive cash crops
1 This assessment is based on analysis of about 50
point targets
and six area targets dispersed throuahout Afghanistan's main
agricultural regions.
2 Source for the precipitation maps is the Air Force Global
Weather Center's AGROMET data base. For this report AGROMET
provided 50 nm gridded analyses of precipitation derived from
reports by in-country weather stations and nrecinitation
approximately 14 weather stations currently reporting weather
data do so sporadically at best.
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into wheat in the northern provinces. ~ 25X1
Sheep and goats are the principal sources of red meat in
Afghanistan and the evidence indicates that their numbers have
stabilized. Statistics
indicate the
number of sheep leveled off at about 18,900,000, and the number
of goats at about 2,900,000 during the 1980-84 period. From 1978
to 1984 wool exports to the USSR--Afghanistan's principal trade
partner--increased substantially, an unlikely event, in our view,
if the herd sizes were decreasing. Over the last 18 months no
evidence-has been acquired which would indicate that large
numbers of these animals have been intentionally slaughtered by
the Soviets or the central government, or that endemic animal
diseases have decimated the herds.
The sheep and goat herds may have remained unscathed by the
fighting because of their remote location during the summer
months when combat is the heaviest.
about 80 percent of the sheep are moved to mountain
pastures in the summer. Thirty percent of these are Karakul
sheep which are only found in the provinces north of the Hindu
Kush where the fighting has been less intense. About 50 percent
of the remaining sheep are owned by nomads or transhumants who
also migrate with their flocks from lowlands to summer grazing
pastures in the mountains. The rest, only about 20 percent of
the total sheep population are
kept near owners' villages.
Table 1
Livestock Herd Sizes
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19
78
1979
1980 198
1
1982
1983 19
84
Sheep (1000s of heads)3 19
075
18400
18700 1890
0
18900*
18900* 189
50*
Goats (1000s of heads) 3
000
2885
2850 290
0
2900
2950* 29
50*
Wool Exports4
(tons to USSR)
4 Statistics on Soviet wool imports from Afghanistan were
extracted from the annual publication "Foreign Trade USSR"
published by the USSR.
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23 percent of the hard-surface (primary) road running from Mazir-
e-Sharif in the north to Kabul and Qandahar in the east and
southeast and to Herat in the west (see Figure 2).
Evidence of combat could he observed on nearly all
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segments of the road, suggesting that it may be difficult to move
farm produce to market, or from surplus producing areas to
deficit areas, even when the roads are serviceable. 25X1
the condition of the road varied widely, but in Lbx1
general the roads from the northern provinces to Kabul are better
maintained than the roads leading south from Kabul. 25X1
From Mazir-e Sharif and Qonduz to Kabul:
o The primary roads from the northern agricultural
provinces--which produce surplus grain in good years--to
Kabul and the southern provinces are cratered in some
places but are serviceable and are being repaired.
o North of Charikar a major bridge which had been destroyed
twice was rebuilt and back in operation by March 1986.
o Massive traffic backups and delays were observed where the
traffic narrowed to a single lane around downed bridges
and along mountain switchbacks.
o Road conditions vary from serviceable to very poor.
Little, if any, maintenance work is being carried out.
Two destroyed bridges were observed in Kabul and four
others were observed between the capital and Qandahar.
o Due to heavy cratering and frequent combat, it would be
very difficult to transport easily-damaged or perishable
farm produce along this segment of road. Not surprisingly,
little traffic was observed along the route.
From Qandahar, Kabul, Qonduz and Mazir-e-Sharif to the
nearest international border:
o The segments of the roads from Mazir-e-Sharif and Qonduz
to the Soviet border were not imaged during the time-frame
of this study.
o As of early April 1986, the road from Kabul east to the
Khyber pass had some craters, but was in serviceable
condition.
The road from Qandahar to the Pakistan border is in very
we examined approximately
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o The coverage of this segment of the road was insufficient
to make any generalized judgement of road conditions.
an area near Herat where
the roads appeared to he cratered: however traffic could
he seen moving freely.
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Primary Road System (Kilometers)a
Road Seqment
Total Length
Length Imaged
% Imaged
1.
Mazir-e-Sharif to Soviet Border
70
None
None
2.
Mazir-e-Sharif to Pole-e Khormi
190
20
11
3.
Pole-e Khormi to Qonduz
90
45
50
4.
Qonduz to USSR Border
60
None
None
5.
Pole-e Khormi to Kabul
470
205
44
6.
Kabul to Khyber Pass
190
56
29
7.
Kabul to Gardez
90
5
5
8.
Kabul to Qandahar
470
111
24
9.
Kandahar to Herat
520
41
8
10.
Qandahar to Pakistan Border
100
31
31
a All distances are approximate.
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ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION
FOR
MARCH 1985
FOR
MARCH 1986
E is - 2'
2' - 3'
3 ' - 4 ?
48 - 5'
FIGURE 1
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\ J _ 1,yp rinX1`~0'.1:~ aTlle In Eshk/tMm
8 ~~Mhzhl~a ?EYz HADAKHS"AN
fMlrrnh~n'
\oWZJAN 1 g: hl
amanpln 0 Y
_ ieMaYmanail 1 ~~.uAN1,ANj~. Y6ie
Figure 2
~Urpaach
PEo.
ADMMI.
TRMAL
AFWA&
Afghanistan
International boundary
Internal administrative boundary
* National capital
e Internal administrative capital
Railroad
0 60 100 150 200 K" tam
0 50 100 160 260 MOOS
~. Naw /~Lhphchusn ~? B:MGN v
Nary
HEAT ~~ ~?~.!
J Ghazni
ARAN I GHAZ/pry
Taf1a /
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