(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: March 4, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 11, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
Directorate of
Intelligence
-f' le Cop y
?ae~QC?t~
DATE 66 Oo? / a
DOC NO NESA M 8b 2oa2l CX
OCR
P&PD 0
Afghanistan Situation Report
79-81 .IMC/CB
rr--s-*tr
NESA M 86-20021 CX
SOVA M 86-20013CX
11 February 1 25X1
COPY n o 1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
TOP SECRET
AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT 25X1
CONTENTS
FIGHTING WIDESPREAD IN EARLY FEBRUARY
Fighting continued last week in Herat, Qandahar,
Nangarhar, and Ghazni Provinces. Combat has broken
out in the Ghazni capital. Insurgents carried out
rocket attacks in Kabul, and heavy fighting was
reported in the Panjsher Valley.
Recent insurgent attacks on supply convoys have
caused shortages in Kabul, and prices have risen
noticeably since the beginning of the year.
2 25X1
11 February 1986
NESA M 86-2OO21CX 25X1
SOYA M 86-20013CX
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
TOP SECRET
IN BRIEF 4
PERSPECTIVE
THE WAR IN JANUARY 7 25X1
Soviet and Afghan troops were active in Nangarhar,
Ghazni, Qandahar, and Herat Provinces in an effort
to cut insurgent supply lines, while resistance
forces attacked garrisons, outposts, and convoys.
This document is prepared weekly by the Office of Near Eastern
and South Asian Analysis and the Office of Soviet Analysis.
PUBLICATION NOTE
Unless major developments warrant otherwise, we will
not publish the Afghanistan Situation Report next
week. The next report will appear on 25 February 1986.
11 February 1986
NESA M 86-Z0021CX 25X1
SOYA M 86-20013CX
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86TO1017R000201910001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
TOP SECRET
The fighting in Ghazni Province since early January
shows no signs of letting up. According to sources of
the US Embassy in Kabul, insurgents have carried the
fighting into the provincial capital itself. The
Soviets are reported to have suffered numerous
casualties and the loss of at least six tanks and three
FIGHTING WIDESPREAD IN EARLY FEBRUARY
aircraft in the last week.
heavy fighting also occurred in Herat, Nangarhar, and
Qandahar Provinces; over 90 Soviet and Afghan soldiers
were reportedly killed during a coordinated insurgent
attack in Herat
In Kabul, insurgents fired multiple missiles at the
Afghan Ministry of Defense, Darulaman Palace and the
airport, and engaged in running gun battles with
security personnel on 5 and 7 February.
fighting was very heavy in the
Panjsher Valley ast week, and over 100 wounded Afghan
soldiers were sent to hospitals in Kabul for
treatment.
25X1
25X1
11 February 1986
NESA M 86-20021CX 25X1
SOVA M 86-20013CX
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
TOP SECRET
FOOD PRICES INCREASE IN KABUL
Food prices have increased sharply in Kabul since the
beginning of the year, according to
press reports. The price increases
follow several insurgent attacks against convoys
travelling to Kabul on the Salang Highway in early
January.
Comment: Because Kabul has relatively small stockpiles
of food, it needs to be resupplied frequently. Even a
relatively brief closure of the Salang Highway, whether
due to insurgent activity or the weather, can cause
11 February 1986
NESA M 86-20021CX
SOVA M 86-20013CX
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
TOP SECRET
shortages and price increases. Food prices in the
capital, however, have risen only moderately over the
past few years, as the Soviets and Afghan regime have
made a determined effort to show Kabul's citizens--and
the world--that they can keep disruptions to a
Top Pakistani officials--including President Zia and
Prime Minister Junejo--have cleared US aircraft
supporting the humanitarian cross-border Afghan aid
program to land in Pakistan, according to the US
Embassy in Islamabad. The Pakistani officials want
the program to remain as "covert" as possible, with
minimal publicity surrounding the aid shipments.
Islamabad fears a highly visible assistance program
would increase Soviet pressures on Pakistan and fuel
criticism by opposition parties.
11 February 1986
NESA M 86-20021CX
SOYA M 86-20013CX
25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
TOP SECRET
HESTA
iSTAN
Afghanistan
International boundary
-?- Internal administrative boundary
* National capital
O Internal administrative capital
Railroad
Road
0 50 100 150 200 Kilometers
I ' ' 1 I I
0 50 100 150 200 Miles
36
KHORASAN
60 Urgeneh
9ranj
NIMRUZ
KAZAKH rS.S.R.
r ~~ 1
UZBEK S.S.R.
-j~levoi4
ISheberghan' BALKH hari l
JOWZJAN( (
Maymanafi !SAMANG NI
FARYAB . \ (
.4.1 Z
- X/ / Zg80L
ndahtr
QANOAR
uetta .Khoit l~
)PAKIST#N
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
hakhrisiib -,
Ghezhi
HAZ
606
PARVAN
ush nba7
Dergara 2,
KIRGHIZ S,S.R.
Osh~~ ,~ 2
40 Kashi(
CHIWA
1 36
~ l~yus
V ,_ Srinagar
tslA Abifd
1 JAMMII\NO
e alpindl / kASHk1iiR
11 ~
A' n%
~IJNJ JBll lri Oa
11111 l
11 February 1986
NESA M 86-20021CX
SOVA M 86-20013CX
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
TOP SECRET
THE WAR IN JANUARY
Despite bad weather and extreme cold, Soviet and Afghan
forces launched operations in Nangarhar, Ghazni,
Qandahar, and Herat Provinces in January. Soviet
Spetsnaz forces initiated small-unit ambushes
throughout eastern and southern Afghanistan in an
effort to cut insurgent supply lines. The insurgents
staged numerous raids on Afghan and Soviet garrisons
and resupply convoys. The Pakistanis scrambled F-16s
against intruding Afghan aircraft for the first time,
but no contact was noted.
Soviet-Afghan Forces Stay Active...
...Near Kabul. Combined Soviet-Afghan combat operations
involving approximately 1,800 troops were carried out both
north and southwest of Kabul during early January.
25X1
The
Soviet deployments may have been in reaction to insurgent
attacks on highway traffic near the Salang Tunnel and
against regime sympathizers in northern Kabul Province.
11 February 1986
NESA M 86-20021CX
SOVA M 86-20013CX
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
TOP SECRET
Insurgents near Kabul rocketed the airport, Soviet
Embassy, and Darulaman Palace. The US Embassy reports
that nighttime small arms fire was infrequent; Afghan
security patrols within the city appeared relatively
active, probably due to the presence of a delegation of
Western journalists invited by the Karmal regime.
The US Embassy in Kabul reports resumption of daily
Soviet IL-76 transport flights into the capital in an
apparent effort to bring in supplies and equipment not
getting through by surface vehicles.
there was also an increase in
military activity at the Bagram airfield and the Soviet
base at Jabal os Saraj in late January.
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
..In the South.
Soviet and Afghan forces have targeted insurgent supply
lines crossing southern Afghanistan for special
attention, with some success. The Soviets have made
widespread use of both day and night ambushes by
helicopter-supported elite units to interdict this
traffic. Insurgents ascribe the success of the
operations to the Afghan Intelligence Services's (KHAD's)
infiltration of their organizations and the increased
collaboration of Pushtun tribes in the region with Afghan
Insurgent Activity
Insurgents remained active throughout Afghanistan,
staging guerrilla attacks on isolated border posts and
11 February 1986
NESA M 86-20021CX
SOVA M 86-20013CX
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
TOP SECRET
resupply convoys. The intensity of attacks ranged from
harassment fire on Afghan and Soviet garrisons to attacks
on convoys which reportedly killed scores of government
troops
Insurgent commander Masood's mobile groups ambushed a
Soviet battlion in the Panjsher Valley and destroyed an
ammunition dump and nine armored vehicles, according to a
source with access.
Other Developments
Discipline Problems. The state of discipline and morale
in the Afghan Army continued to remain poor.
(there is general discontent about delays
in receiving replacement troops. The number of Afghan
defections remains high, casting doubt upon the ability
of the Afghan government to raise the strength of the
armed forces.
Soviet forces in Afghanistan also suffer f
discipline problems.
11 February 1986
NESA M 86-20021CX 25X1
SOVA M 86-20013CX
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
TOP SECRET
Outlook
The Soviets will focus on interdicting insurgent supply
lines and clearing roads during the remaininq winter
months. Harsh weather in the mountains will limit
Soviet air support for convoys traveling the main
supply artery between Kabul and Termez. The Soviets
will probably conduct quick sweep operations along this
vital transportation link in the hope of preempting
insurgent ambushes.
10
11 February 1986
NESA M 86-20021C%
SOVA_M 86-20013CX
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86TO1017R000201910001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7
Top Secret
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/17: CIA-RDP86T01017R000201910001-7