WEST BEIRUT: DECLINING SECURITY AND THE AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF BEIRUT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T01017R000302590001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 28, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 13, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

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SUBJECT: West Beirut: Declining Security and the
American University of Beirut
Mr. Philo Dibble, State/Lebanon
Dep. Asst. Sec. Suddarth, State/NEA
Mr.
Mr.
Ms.
Mr.
Mr.
Lt.
Mr.
Dr.
Dr.
Richard Soloman, State/Pplicv Planning
Aaron Miller, State/Policy Planning
April Glaspie, State/NEA/ARN
Philip Wilcox, State/NEA/IAI
George Harris, State/INR/NESA
Col. Fred Hof, OSD/ISA/NESA
Fred C. Smith, OSD/ISA/Plans & Requirements
Norman Cigar, Hq DA (DAMI) FII Pentagon
Max Gross, Defense Intelligence College
1 - Mr. Dennis Ross, NSC
1 - Mr. Howard Teicher, NSC
DATE Q (~ Fl e
1 - DIR/DCI/DDCI Exec Staff DOC NO NEsI M %-e20OOI
1 - DDI
1 - ADDI OCR 3
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - C/PES P&PD
1 - PDB Staff
1 - NID Staff
6 - CPAS/IMD/CB
1 - D/NESA
1 - DD/NESA
1 - C/NESA/PPS
2 - NESA/PPS (1 cy to analyst for sourcing)
1 - C/NESA/SO
1 - C/NESA/IA
1 - C/NESA/PG
1 - C/NESA/AI
3 - NESA/AI/L
DDI/NESA/AI/L 3 Jun 86
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Central Intelligence Agency
Washingpon. Q C 20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
13 June 1986
West Beirut: Declining Security and the
American University of Beirut
Summary
West Beirut "is a desert stalked by ravenous wolves"
(Walid Jumblatt 18 April 1986)
The continuing power struggle among Lebanon's
Muslim militias is transforming West Beirut--once the
major commercial, intellectual, and tourist center of
the Arab world--into a lawless, militarized zone
contested by confessional and ideological factions.
Turf battles, terrorism, rampant street crime, and the
lack of centralized authority have made the area
extremely dangerous for both local residents and
foreigners. The deep schisms between members of the
:same sect or religious affiliation are giving rise to
extremist organizations such as the Shia Hizballah
movement which is bent on transforming that half of the
city into a center for Shia fundamentalist activities
in Lebanon.
The proliferation of competing militias contributes
to increasing political fragmentation and shifting
political fortunes--a situation which almost certainly
will ensure that West Beirut remains in a state of
conflict for the foreseeable future. Whenever one
faction appears to be gaining too much turf at the
expense of other groups, a realignment quickly ensues
assuring a virtual parity between combatants.
This memorandum was prepared byl
Ithe
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Levant Branch, Arab-Israeli Division, Office
of Ne
ar
Eastern
and
South Asian Analysis. Information as of 13 J
une 1
986
was used in
its preparation. Questions and comments should be addressed to
Chief, Arab-Israeli Division,
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The increasing lawlessness in West Beirut has
curtailed markedly social and economic activities of
western institutions, and at the same time has made
them more susceptible to blackmail. The American
University of Beirut has been disrupted badly and its
future is in doubt. AUB continues to perform badly
needed services, however, and key militia leaders will
seek to protect it.
Since the Israeli invasion of June 1982, and the subsequent
departure of the Palestinian fighters from West Beirut, Sunni,
Druze, and Shia militias have been aggressively vying for control
of the various neighborhoods. The traditional sectarian
neighborhoods are blurred as a result of continuously changing
military fortunes of the various militias. The result has been a
steady decline of security and safety not only for the remaining
few foreign residents, but for the rest of the population as
well.
West Beirut today is a patchwork of small areas loosely
controlled by confessional and ideological militia and many plain
gangs. Amal and the Druze militias are the major contenders for
power in West Beirut, but smaller, sometimes more extremist
groups constantly challenge the authority of the major militias.
Many fighters remain uncommitted to any single militia and are
eager to fight on behalf of any cause or leader in return for
cash. there are 44
distinct organizations competing in West Beirut.
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The accelerating return of Palestinian fighters in recent
months is aggravating the security situation in West Beirut.
Lebanese President Amin Gemayel 25X1
has offered PLO Chairman Yasir Arafat 5000 passports to
facilitate the return of Palestinian fighters into Lebanon to
stem growing Syrian and Shia influence in West Beirut. To stop
PLO infiltration Syrian officers have recently begun 25X1
checking passports at the Beirut Airport, but Palestinian
guerrillas are also infiltrating into Lebanon through various
ports, such as the illegal Druze port at Khaldah, south of
Beirut. 25X1
The on-going "Camps War" between Amal--the Shia mainstream
organization--and the Palestinians is freeing the radical Shia
group Hizballah to carry out its campaign of terror against both
Lebanese and the few remaining westerners in West Beirut. The
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growth of Hizballah's role came about as a result of the last
year's Camp Wars which pitted the Amal militia and its supporter
the Lebanese Army's Sixth Brigade against the Palestinians in 25X1
Sabra. Shatila, and Burj Al Barajinah Camps.
many of the areas currently controlled by Hizballah 25X1
originally belonged to Aural, which was forced to relinquish them
as the fighting became unexpectedly intense. 25X1
The Sunnis, who traditionally held an important political
position second only to the Christians, are now at the mercy of
others. Defeated and politically disorganized, the Sunnis of
West Beirut, both moderates and extremists, are gradually loosing
control of their neighborhoods to other militias. Hizballah
gunmen are growing in strength in traditional Sunni areas. 25X1
The most important Hizballah area is located in the' 25X1
Sunni heartland of Basta, just northwest of the Green Line
separating East and West Beirut. 25X1
The defeat of the Sunni Sixth of February Movement in early
June helped Amal gain control of strategic Sunni territory near
the Sabra and Shatila Camps. Aural military leaders are eager to
consolidate their grip on Sabra and Shatila in order to link up
with the sprawling southern Shia Suburbs--a move which is likely
to be opposed by both the Druze and the extremist Hizballah who
are adamant about preventing Amal from creating a Shia mini-state
inside West Beirut.
The Druze--who control significant turf around the former
American Embassy, the American University, and the winding
beachhead south of the Embassy--want West Beirut to remain free
from any single militia domination. The Druze Progressive
Socialist Party has attracted many Sunnis and Kurds to its ranks
in the last year because those communities have no strong
militias of their own and want to fight the Shia takeover.
The war among the confessional groups in West Beirut often
manifests itself through car bombings, kidnappings, and political
assassination. Each of the major militias is believed to be
holding several hundred hostages from other confessional groups.
The release last month of 33 political prisoners by the Christian
militia in East Beirut did little to alleviate the deep division
between East and West Beirut, and in fact led to the kidnapping
of Christian professor Nabil Matar from the American University
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of Beirut by the previously unknown Independent Movement for the
Liberation of the Kidnapped. We believe that this movement is an
offshoot of the Hizballah.
No one is immune from the rising tide of violence in West
Beirut. The foreign community continues to live in constant
fear. Political assassinations are becoming a daily occurance
with attempts frequently directed at Armenians, other Christians,
and any other politically active faction. The US Embassy in
Beirut reports that a wave of assassinations is currently
underway against Lebanese Army officers accused of spying on
local militias. Another Embassy report states that the collapse
of security, and the rise of Islamic fundamentalism is forcing
even the Soviet Union to curtail its diplomatic, cultural, and
military missions. The same report indicate that the Soviets
have put out discreet feelers for a building in East Beirut which
could be used as a cultural center or perhaps a chancery. The
remaining embassies are hiring local militias to guard them. The
Druze militia is emerging as the key guardian of Soviet and
western interests in West Beirut. Most foreign banks are hiring
private guards to protect them from robberies.
AUB: A Lamp Set on a Hill in Danger
The American University of Beirut and the American University
Hospital are two remaining western institutions that have endured
despite the rapidly declining security around them. Founded in
1868, the university helped shape and maintain Lebanon's pro
western orientation. The US Embassy in Beirut reports that the
university which has survived previous rounds of Lebanese
internal violence and deep social splits separating the upper
classes from the immigrants and refugees, is now facing the
greatest threat to its existence. The AUB community environment
is changing from one of tolerance and hopefulness to suspicion
and despair.
Waves of kidnappings, murders and threats against AUB and AUH
personnel have drastically reduced the number of both foreign 25X1
faculty and foreign students. The campaign is aimed against
AUB's role in promoting western democratic values.
Hizballah has a clandestine cell at AUB whose
Repeated strikes by university and hospital personnel have failed 25X1
to gain the release of several kidnapped faculty and staff, but
have succeeded in publicizing the plight of the institution. F--]
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The violence against AUB goes on, but the major militias in
Beirut want the university's services to continue and have issued
statements condemning the faculty kidnappings. Druze leader
Walid Jumblatt and Shia leader Nabih Bari have repeatedly
supported AUB and have condemned lawlessness on the campus. More
than 60 percent of today's AUB students are Shia, most of whom
oppose the kidnappings of their teachers, and their fellow
students by the extremists Hizballah. The alumnae of the
university are so concerned about the well being of the
university that they have now formed the Committee for Salvation
of AUB to help oversee security with the local militias and to
counter increasing Islamic fanaticism on campus.
No western institution has endured as much anguish as the
American University Hospital. The Hospital is still considered
one of the best in the region but as the fighting rages in West
Beirut, the AUH looks more like a MASH unit under fire than a
teaching facility. There is an unwritten agreement among
Beirut's warring factions to keep the hospital a neutral zone,
but violence often spills into operating and waiting rooms as
rival militias are brought in for treatment. Most casualties
treated at the AUH are civilians caught in the cross fires--few
are private paying patients. Increased governmental economic and
financial problems, coupled with a declining US aid is forcing
the AUH to operate with a $5.5 million deficit. The dramatic
decline of the Lebanese pound in recent months, and the constant
presence of militias loitering on hospital property are
preventing paying patients from utilizing the AUH services.
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Outlook 25X1
No improvement in the security situation in Beirut is in the
cards, but the lack of any other credible educational
institutions in West Beirut, will ensure continued support for
both AUB and AUH by local residents. The decline of security
around the campus however will hamper efforts by university
administrators to keep them functioning at anything near
normalcy. We are unable to assess specifically the impact of
declining security on the daily activities in classrooms but it
certainly will be negative. Nonetheless, there continues to be a
great deal of effort by students, faculty and staff to safeguard
the legacy of AUB at any cost.
Turf battles in Beirut will continue. An entire generation
reared in civil war conditions is coming of age in West Beirut.
Many young militia members know no other condition; fighting to
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them is a major part of everyday life. The accelerating economic
decline will most certainly encourage the dwindling middle
classes to join ranks with street fighters to survive.
The extremists almost certainly will continue to gain at the
expense of the moderates. Militancy, particularly in the Shia
community, is likely to spread as the political and economic
crisis drags on. The US Embassy in Beirut reports that
increasing economic problems are creating a bleak picture in West
Beirut, as people talk more often of an imminent famine.
Moderate Muslim leaders probably will remain afraid to
denounce extremists for fear of retribution. For example,
vandals in West Beirut broke into
cars belonging to the Sunni chairman of the Municipality
Department after he announced a plan to coordinate services with
officials in East Beirut.
Hizballah's power in West Beirut is likely to continue
growing as long as it goes unchecked by the other militias.
Hizballah's strategy includes the purging of Beirut of foreign
influence, the avoidance of prolonged military entanglement with
any other local militia, the weakening of Amal, and the weakening
of leftist militias such as the Lebanese Communist Party. A
clash between the communists and Hizballah elements last February
ended in a draw, but Hizballah continues to carry out
assassinations against communist leaders and their supporters.
Much of West Beirut will remain a contested arena, with the
Druze and Amal remaining, at least for now, the leading
contenders for power. Realignments and constantly shifting
coalitions will most likely ensure that no single militia will be
capable of controlling this increasingly restless segment of the
city. Beirutis are now accustomed to the daily violence around
them, and are likely to continue putting up with with declining
security by increasingly retreating back to the neighborhoods for
both safety and protection. In this environment AUB will face an
uncertain future at best.
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Militia-Controlled Neighborhoods in Beirut
/EAST BEIRUT
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