AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T01017R000302600001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 25, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 17, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

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DATE
DOC NO
OCR 0 "7
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P&PD 6
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Ai gnanistan situation Report
79-81 IMC/CB
NESA M 86-20092JX
SOYA M 86-20056JX
17 June 1986
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 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302600001-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302600001-9
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WIDESPREAD
COMBAT OPERATIONS BEGIN
2
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Soviet and Afghan troops from Konduz, Herat,
Jalalabad, and the Kabul-Bagram areas initiated
regiment-size operat
ions last week,
as military
pressure on the insu
rgents intensifi
ed.
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CONTINUING AFGHAN-INDIAN
MILITARY RELATIO
NSHIP
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A recent meeting in Kabul of Indian, Soviet, and
Afghan Air Force officers to discuss the shootdown
of an Afghan SU-22 by Pakistani F-16s suggests
military cooperation between India and the Afghan
regime may be growing.
UNDP COUNTRY PROGRAM FOR AFGHANISTANI 4
Donors to the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP) are opposed to a new country program for
Afghanistan for 1987-1991 but probably will be
unable to block completely funding to Kabul.
The Soviets again assumed most of the combat
burden against the insurgents in May. They took
steps to prevent the Afghan military from reacting
to the changeover in leadership within the
People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan.
Insurgent activity was restrained somewhat by
start of Ramadan on 7 May.
17 JUNE 1986
NESA M 86-20092JX
SOVA M 86-20056JX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302600001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302600001-9
THE LITTLE WAR IN GHOWR PROVINCE 10 25X1
Ghowr Province, a rugged area in west-central
Afghanistan, is essentially controlled by the
resistance. The Soviets do not consider it an
important strategic region and probably will not
attempt to drive out the insurgents.
This document is prepared weekly by the office of
Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis and the
Office of Soviet Analysis. Questions or comments
on the issues raised in the publication should be
17 June 1986
NESA M 86-20092JX
SOVA M 86-20056JX
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?Qal'eh-ye
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Afghanistan
I nternatio nal boundary
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National capital
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Railroad
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0 50 100 150 200 Kilometers
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0 50 100 150
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NESA M 86-20092JX
SOVA M 86-20056JX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302600001-9
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WIDESPREAD COMBAT OPERATIONS BEGIN
Several regiment-size Soviet and Afghan combat
operations were under way last week in an effort to
maintain pressure on the insurgents.
major elements of a Soviet
motorized rifle regiment at Konduz and a command post
set up at Pol-e Khomri are involved in operations about
55 kilometers southeast of Konduz.
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01
sy sources report a recent Soviet-Afghan three-day
operation in Wardak Province west of Kabul left 47
regime soldiers killed and 60 wounded. Several Soviet
Afghan military groups continue sweeps in the hills
west of Paghman.
CONTINUING AFGHAN-INDIAN MILITARY RELATIONSHIP
Indian Air Force officers met with Soviet and Afghan
Air Force officers in Kabul in late May to discuss the
17 May dogfight between Afghan fighter-bombers and
Pakistani F-16s, according to the US Embassy in
Kabul. The Indians ostensibly were investigating
Pakistani F-16 fighter tactics, capabilities, and crew
proficiencies. The Indian officers were given an
inaccurate account of the incident that claimed
Pakistani pilots were not yet proficient on the F-16.
COMMENT: The distorted version of the incident--in
which an SU-22 was shot down--probably was, in part, an
effort by the Soviets and Afghans to save face.
Nevertheless, the exchange is another indication of a
continuing Indo-Afghan military cooperation. Last
17 June 1986
NESA M 86-20092JX
SOVA M 86-20056JX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302600001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302600001-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302600001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302600001-9
January, an Afghan Army general made an official visit
to India, and there were unconfirmed reports that
Indian Army officers observed operations in the
Panjsher Valley.
UNDP COUNTRY PROGRAM FOR AFGHANISTAN
A meeting of donors to the United Nations Development
Program (UNDP) was recently convened to discuss the
Afghanistan country program for 1987-1991, according to
the US Mission in Geneva. The UNDP representative in
Kabul has tried to dissuade the Afghan regime from
seeking a new country program because current project
activity could be jeopardized if the governing council
reacts adversely to a new proposal. The regime
insists, however, that it will present a country
program next June. Opposition from the "Group of 8"
donor countries--the United Kingdom, Canada, France,
Japan, Italy, Belgium, the Federal Republic of Germany,
and the US--prevented adoption of country programs in
COMMENT: The "Group of 8" probably will object to a
new country program for the reasons it cited
previously: unwillingness to legitimize the regime,
the possible use of project aid for the regime's
military and political efforts, and the uncertain
security conditions in country. They probably will not
totally cut off project funding, however, because of
Soviet and East European pressure in the United Nations
and a desire to avoid denying assistance to the Afghan
people. Accordingly, they probably will agree to
continue the current practice of funding a limited
number of projects on a case-by-case basis.
17 June 1986
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Bakhtiar Airlines maintenance personnel plan to
strike if their demands for restored salary levels
are not met by the end of June,
Salaries were reduced by 50
percent after the recent nationalization of the
airlines. It is unknown whether other Bakhtiar
employees will join in the strike.
The Kabul regime has asked Hazara and Turi leaders
to form 5,000- and 2,000-man militia forces
respectively for operations along the Afghan and
Pakistani border,
Plans for the creation of these Shia militias
reflect Najibullah's interest in widening support
for the regime among Afghan tribes and bolstering
Kabul's severely understrength armed forces. But
the regime almost certainly will fail to enlist as
many men as it wants.
17 June 1986
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In May, Soviet ground forces carried most of the load
in counterinsurgency operations, reversing the trend in
recent months when the Afghan Army bore the brunt in
major offensives. During the changeover of leadership
of the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan in late
April and early May, Soviet forces evidently took
precautions to prevent the Afghan military from
reacting forcefully to Babrak Karmal's replacement.
Insurgent activity probably was constrained by the
beginning of Ramadan--the holy month of fasting--which
began on 7 May.
Clipped Wings
The Soviets tried to minimize the chances of violence
over the replacement on 4 May of Babrak Karmal as
Communist Party leader. All military movement by
Afghan forces in and out of Kabul was prohibited
starting as early as 28 April, and Afghan Army units in
the capital were largely disarmed.
he
Embassy in Kabul commented that Soviet troops were
out in force in the capital during the change in
leadership. Some of the controls apparently continued
into at least mid-month and were a source of
Soviets Out Front
The major Soviet and Afghan combat operation in May was
centered in the 'Ali Kheyl area, where insurgents--
primarily from the National Islamic Front--had been
harassing an Afghan Army garrison. Following several
days of airstrikes, operations commenced on 14 May,
with an unsuccessful
reach Ali Kheyl.
17 June 1986
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The Battle in Qandahar Province
To stem infiltration, the Soviets are building a
security belt around Qandahar similar to the one around
Kabul. it will comprise three
concentric circles ot security posts. The outer ring
will be manned by Soviet soldiers; the middle one by
17 June 1986
NESA M 86-20092JX
SOVA M 86-20056JX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302600001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302600001-9
Afghan soldiers; and the innermost belt by
militia.
insurgent forces have found it increasingly difficult
to move in and out of Qandahar city, although they
manage to harass Soviet and Afghan positions nearly
The Soviets and Afghans have established new
security outposts along routes normally used by
insurgents. The interdiction effort allegedly has
nearly doubled the cost of transporting supplies in
province.
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some of the decisions taken
by the insurgents have had unintended consequences. In
particular, when the guerrillas tried to block sales of
food and fuel by local merchants to regime forces, the
regime confiscated the items. In addition, the
guerrillas' suggestion to have civilians destroy draft
exemption cards resulted in a major round-up of draft-
eligible males by the regime. Because of the negative
impact of the decisions on civilian morale in Qandahar
city, some insurgents suspect the originator of the
measures of being a government agent.
Lull of Ramadan
Insurgent-initiated attacks throughout Afghanistan
probably were limited somewhat by the onset of Ramadan
early in May. Rocket attacks on Kabul increased during
the month, according to the US Embassy, although the
frequency and intensity were lower than in past
years. The airport and the Dar of Aman Palace areas
appeared to have been the main targets of the insurgent
rockets.
Later in the month,
17 June 1986
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the insurgents ambushed a large Soviet military convoy
near Kowt-e Ashrow. According to the US Embassy in
Kabul, the insurgents destroyed nearly 18 vehicles
during a six-hour attack.
Outlook
o ensive
postponed
will once
the planning for another large-scale
in the Nazian Valley in June--an attack
from May--indicate that Soviet ground units
more be the major participants. This
suggests that the Soviets are not ready to give primary
responsibility for all major actions against the
guerrillas to the Afghan Army. The limited successes
this year, in which Afghan infantry and armor units
have been the primary ground forces component, almost
certainly are the result of the massive firepower
supplied by Soviet artillery and combat aircraft.
17 June 1986
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THE LITTLE WAR IN GHOWR PROVINCE
Rugged Ghowr Province in west-central Afghanistan is
largely controlled by the insurgents. Soviet and
regime forces maintain only a token presence in the
provincial capital of Chaghcharan. Given the relative
unimportance of the area to the counterinsurgency
effort, the Soviets are unlikely to push hard to extend
their control of the region in the foreseeable
future.
Lines of communication in the province are highly
vulnerable to interdiction by the guerrillas. The
roads are few and of poor quality, and the terrain is
mountainous. Access to Chaghcharan is limited to a few
passes, which are patrolled by the insurgents.
Holed Up in Chaghcharan
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Jamiat-i-Islami and Harakat-Inqilab-i-Islami insurgents
based in the Farsi Valley frequently harass regime and
Soviet convoys:
-- In an attack in September 1983, at least 300
insurgents ambushed a 500-vehicle convoy. Nine
vehicles were destroyed, five soldiers killed, and
11 wounded. Despite a helicopter escort and
frequent air attacks, the Soviet convoy took three
days to travel through the Farsi Valley to
Chaghcharan.
By early fall 1985, the insurgents controlled the
countryside around Chaghcharan. They essentially
confined the Soviet battalion to the city and nearby
airfield. Soviet forces organized a reinforcement
column in November. MI-24 gunships provided air cover
17 June 1986
NESA M 86-20092JX
SOVA M 86-20056JX
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 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302600001-9
Insurgent small arms and RPG-7 fire slowed the convoy,
while guerrillas from several factions set an ambush
near the city of Tulak. The lead armored personnel
carrier hit a mine and was destroyed, halting movement
on the road, and the insurgents opened fire on the
stopped vehicles. Only the intervention of MI-24
helicopters prevented a major disaster for the force,
Fighting continued through the night, and at about noon
the following day, the column began a slow retreat,
with helicopters covering the movement of the remaining
vehicles back to Shindand. The insurgents claimed to
have killed at least 43 Soviet and regime troops and
destroyed or disabled some 20 vehicles.
Objective: A Minimal Presence
The Soviets now depend on aircraft from Shindand to
resupply their garrison in Chaghcharan and to protect
convoys.
The Soviets probably will maintain their presence in
Ghowr at current levels so long as it remains
sufficient to retain control of Chaghcharan. They view
the area as strategically insignificant and probably
17 June 1986
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 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302600001-9
are unwilling to expend more resources trying to quell
the insurgency there. For their part, the insurgents
probably will remain unable to force the Soviets out of
Chaghcharan.
17 June 1986
NESA M 86-20092JX
SOVA M 86-20056JX
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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