SOCIALIST INTERNATIONAL: PROSPECTS FOR JUNE CONGRESS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T01017R000403970001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 8, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 13, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

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Memorandum for: ~~
This memorandum was prepared for
Mr, Tom Troy of the Bureau of European and
Canadian Affairs at the Department of State
by the
Office of European Analysis. It will be
used for background information for his
breifing of Rozanne L. Ridgway, Assistant
Secretary of State for European and
Canadian Affairs.
13 May 1986
EURA
Office of European Analysis
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Central Intelligence Agency
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
? 13 May 1986
Socialist International: Prospects for June Congress
Summary
The Socialist International's (SI) congress on 21-
23 June in Lima, Peru--its first since 193--will have
peace and the world economy as its theme. The
tentative agenda includes arms control, Third World
economic problems--especially Latin American debt--and
reports from regional committees on the situation in
Central America, southern Africa and the Middle East.
SI positions on arms control and Central America have
become less one-sided in the past year or two, but
resolutions on these and other issues still are likely
to have an anti-US tone.
* The present-day Socialist International dates from a congress
held in Frankfurt in 1951. Originally consisting mainly of
European parties, the SI has expanded its membership in the Third
World, notably since Willy Brandt became president in 1976. The
main policymaking body of the SI is its congress, which meets
every three years and is composed of six representatives from 25X1
each affiliated party: in the period between congresses policy
is determined by a bhureau that meets twice a year. See Annex for
a list of members. ~ ~ 25X1
Th-i-$ memorandum was prepared by
~ the Office of European Analysis for Thomas Trov of the
Bureau or European and Canadian Affairs at the Department of
State. Questions and comments
Chief, European Issues Divisio
may be directed to
EUR M 86-20073
25X1
25X1
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Introduction
SI congresses are primarily public relations operations in the course
of which non-binding resolutions are ratified and officers elected. The
meetings are generally confused and poorly organized, but they do provide
an occasion for members to make contacts, exchange views, and promote
special interests. Congress resolutions are usually less radical than
those proposed at preparatory committee meetings, in large part because
when controversial tions are at issue, unanimity is found through
generalities.
SI members believe they can play a useful role in promoting peace and
stability, but the organization has been ineffectual in helping to resolve
specific international problems. It tends to seize upon issues, only to
move on to something else if they prove very difficult to resolve. Given
the widely divergent interests of its members, internal conflicts are rife
over such matters as French nuclear testing in the Pacific, INF deployment,
and the Strategic Defense Initiative. Even though it is avowedly
anti-Communist, the SI almost never criticizes Communist governments--quite
possibly because it does not believe it can influence these regimes. In
contrast, SI leaders are often quick to blame the US for world tensions.
After the recent US attack on Libya, for example. the SI condemned the
action as contrary to international law.
Arms Control
The SI's Advisory Council of Disarmament and Arms Control (SIDAC)--an
outgrowth of a study group established in 1978 at the SI's Helsinki
conference--reflects members' concern about the arms race. SIDAC's
positions are shaped heavily by representatives from Austria, Japan, and
the Scandinavian countries, which have an especially keen interest in arms
control issues. Two key players are Finnish Prime Minister Sorsa and SI
General Secretary Yananen, also a Finn. The other permanent member has
been Walter Hacker of the Austrian Socialist Party, who is almost
reflexively anti-American
Over the years SIDAC has produced several drafts of its disaraament
report, and delegations have traveled back and forth between Washington and
Moscow--most recently in March 1985--to discuss security issues and arms
control. At that time the draft generally favored Soviet positions, but,
after the talks in Washington, it was modified to become more neutral in
tone. The latest draft continues to criticize the Strategic Defense
Initiative, but calls for on-the-spot verification of disarmament
agreements and largely endorses US positions in INF negotiations. It also
gives more emphasis than before to the elimination of chemical weapons and
the need to preserve the ABM treaty, but it has dropped an earlier proposal
for a nuclear-weapons-free zone in central Europe.
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The SI's arms control conference in Vienna last October issued an
appeal to the US and USSR calling for prevention of militarization of outer
space, amending the test ban treaty to abolish nuclear weapons tests,
eventual elimination of intermediate-range missiles in both East and West,
and extension of SALT negotiations. According to diplomatic reporting,
most delegates thought the superpowers' representatives had not engaged in
at~y useful give-and-take and--in contrast to a large and active Soviet
representation--the late arrival and early departure of the US delegation
was widely noted. The most recent meeting of SIDAC in Oslo this March
echoed many of these themes and stressed its intention to continue to exert
pressure on the superpowers to gegotiate binding agreements at the Geneva
talks. SIDAC will be meeting once more before the June congress, and we
e~ct the Soviet nuclear reactor disaster will be added to its agenda.
Foreign Debt
The SI draft proposal on the less developed countries' debt problems
focuses on the need to len then the term of loans while simultaneously
decreasing interest rates The
working group that developed the draft proposes that a new international
organization purchase existing LDC debt from creditor banks and governments
at a discount rate in exchange for long-term bonds secured by the eember
governments. Interest on the bonds would be lower than the existing market
rate with the difference shared by the governments and banks of the
industrialized countries. The working group thought this plan would help
increase production in LDCs by increasing investment capital and was
therefore better than the Baker plan, which it commended as a serious
effort but "too monetarist."
25X1
25X1
Unless some of these practical matters are worked out in advance, 25X1
owever, it seems unlikely that the SI forum will be able to do anything
more than endorse the idea in principle. 25X1
Regional Issues
Central America. Since at least mid-1984 the Socialist International
has been shifting its stance toward the problems of Central America, but SI
officials have tended to voice these changes privately. The SI has come to
view the election of Jose Napoleon Duarte in E1 Salvador as part of a
genuine democratic process there, and criticism of the US role has
decreased markedly. The SI has continued to make statements criticizing
the Salvadoran government, usually on human rights, but the final
declaration of the SI Committee on Latin America and the Caribbean
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(SICLAC)--which met in April to prepare for the SI congress--included only
A more critical attitude toward Nicaragua has emerged since an SI
fact-finding trip in February. The nission returned highly disturbed about
Sandinista internal policies, especially on human rights, and made its
dissatisfaction with the situation public. Nevertheless, the SI continues
to criticize US policies .toward Nicaragua, which it describes as "hindering
progress" toward an overall settlement of the region's problems. The
SICLAC statement in April predictably added to this criticism, but
criticized Nicaragua in the same paragraph--a departure from usual
Southern Africa. The cost recent SI foray into southern Africa was an
executive committee meeting with leaders of the Frontline States in
Gaborone, Botswana in mid-April. SI President Willy Brandt ended the
session with a statement reflecting many of the positions of the Frontline
States and explicitly criticising US policy toward the region. He called
on the US to halt aid to UNITA and said that linkage between Cuban troop
withdrawal in Angola and Namibian independence was "unjustified." Any SI
statement at the congress in Lima is likely to continue this stance and to
reiterate Brandt's calls for an end to apartheid; the freeing of Nelson
Mandela; and support for the African National Congress, the Southwest
Africa Peoples Organization, and the United Democratic Front. It is also
likely to call for the imposition of tougher sanctions against South
Africa.
Middle East. While the search for a Middle East peace fits in well
with the desire of SI leaders to deal with important problems outside
Western Europe, the SI's Middle East coamittee has had few serious contacts
recently with governments in the region and none with the PLO for sore than
a year. In the past, SI member Israel has been able to block passage of
any resolution explicitly recognizing a role for the PLO in the peace
process. At the SI's arms control conference in Vienna last fall, Israel's
raid on the PLO's Tunis headquarters generated intense discussions but no
resolution. Portugal's president, Mario Soares, has replaced Bruno
Kreisky, a leading advocate of Palestinian rights, as the SI's point man on
the Middle East, a Factor that should further soderate the findings of this
Outlook
SI leaders, like policies, tend to stay in place. We expect Willy
Brandt and Penti Vananen to retain themions as president and general
secretary of the SI, respectively.
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The congress is likely to continue to recommend dialogue between the
superpowers as one of the paths to peace and may back the recent Gorbachev
proposals as a reasonable starting point toward reaching arils control
agreements. At the same tine, .embers may express alarm over the Soviet
handling of the Chernobyl' disaster. The congress is less likely to lay
out specific nostrums for the problems of Third World debtor countries, but
will call on the industrial world to work with the SI to find a solution.
On regional issues, conference statements will tend to be critical of
the US. Even statements on Nicaragua--which are likely for the first time
to cast a more critical eye on the Sandinistas--will take the US to task
for supporting the Contras and other "destabilizing" actions. In the
discussion of southern Africa, .the participants are likely to criticize
Washington for its support of UNITA, its linkage of Cuban troop withdrawal
to a settlement in Namibia, and its resistance to sanctions against South
Africa. On the Middle East, the congress will probably fault the US for
its approach to terrorism, citing the need to eliminate its causes rather
than its perpetrators.
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