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December 22, 2016
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December 30, 2009
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February 4, 1985
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PDF icon CIA-RDP87-00462R000100110023-9.pdf144.87 KB
Approved For Release 2009/12/30 ' CIA-RDP87-004628000100110023-9 C",--- Confdential 4a- d9,.) JWARNING Volume III, No. 1, February 1985 The Soviet Plan for Peru Overshadowed by events to its north and east - the guerrilla wars in Central America and the transition to democracy in Brazil and, ''Argentina - Peru is emerging as one of the most vulnerable : targets in Latin America for Soviet-Cuban expansionism. Close to bankruptcy and racked by a savage terrorist. campaign, Peru is now gearing up for presidential 'elections in , which the leading contenders represent rival factions of the left. The Soviets, who maintain extensive links with "progressive nationalists" in the officer corps, are hoping- that the changed situation after April 14 will provide them with new opportunities to establish a base in the Andes. More than 200 Soviet military advisers have been seeking to exploit Peru's prevailing. statist philosophy and the defensive paranoia of some, military men derived from a history of conflict with hostile neighbors -.Chile,Bolivia, Ecuador - towhich it.has:` ' been obliged to cede: ter ritory=in pastwars whose: memory is; kept alive in schools :and cadet courses. And it is no accident that the trruption'of a`majo ;guerrilla campaign that`has served to`k undetmine,both3the economy, andppublic+oonfidence`+ooi ictded}ti; with the inauguration of a moderate ' democratic government after a period of dictatorial rule. by, leftist .,generals broadly sympathetic to Moscow and Havana. , Peru rarely occupies a prominent place in Western reporting real chance of winning the__ job. APRA's candidate, Alan on the Latin American'debt crisis. Yet, with a public sector debt . Garcia, is' 'a federal deputy., who models his personal and of S10.5 billion and' a private sector `debt of S 1.9 billion, it is political tailoring - on his hero, Spanish Socialist Premier Latin America's sixth-largest debtor nation; and in terms of Felipe Gonzalez, with whom he is in 'frequent contact by debt per capita, 'it ranks as one of the top four. To be sure, phone and personal emissary. Garcia, now in his late thirties, Brazil, ? Mexico, Argentina, Venezuela and Chile, all have has a good chance of winning the election. His party won a heavier debt burdens. Unlike these countries, however, Peru majority of the vote in the muncipal polls in 1983. distinguished itself just six months ago by ceasing to service its foreign debt; and there, is little prospect that interest payments envenomed political campaign now under way inthe run-up to' the April polls Anti-Americanism is becoming one of the guiding themes in that campaign:-, Uncle Sam is being flayed for all the familiar reasons and for some that are moreidiosyncratic -For example, tional adversaries,': Chile and Ecuador. More 'important? the` an ti-drug campaign -that is being pursued with increasing deter urination by the Reagan administration, is less than welcome ' rural area s whose economies have Become-geared to coca production Indeed, some U.S. experts"believe that for the past two years Peru has been producing up to halfofthe raw mater Resurgence ' of: the' left The ,brightening prospects for the 'Marx st left `- an its foothold in'the Peruvian armed forces - must be understood against the backdrop of a long tradition of revolutionary activity. In the 1930s, the Peruvian,idealogue, Jose Carlos Mariategui, was one of the standard-bearers for Marxism- Leninism in South America. Another Peruvian writer, Eudocio. Ravines, the author of The Yenan Way and later famous as an apostate, also was highly influential in spreading Marxist doctrine. The Peruvian armed forces were among the first in the continent to establish senior war colleges (escuelas superiores de guerra) to provide nationalist-oriented courses;', in geopolitics and international economics. From the beginning (and to the present day) many instructors were . orthod'o'x ` Marxists drawn from a heavily left-politicized university ,environment. Peru is also the birthplace of APRA, the acronym for the Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana [American Popular Revolutionary, Alliance]-. . Founded by the exiled Victor Raul Hays de'la Tone, a first=hand observer of Meiuco's revolution- aryconvulsions in the 1920s, =APRA; always{ lias been on the election: But today, the APRA candidate' is the favorite to succeed centrist President Fernando'Belatinde Terry. . Of the nine contenders for the presidency only four have any The Soviet Play for Peru , Anti-NATO Terror in'Europe ; .: , , , ? 3 Power-Struggle. in Portugal ' mpatgn-,s iytt Agenda "' , : "Rajiv's Raj ....... .. ............. 7 ''Middle :-East Update : .. ..... ......:...... 9 K. The Libyan-Moroccan !Ninilon" : 4 : Algerian-Moroccan con ltct Flashpointsi japan and l'actfZc''defense, Angola; Soviet Analysis of ;Brazil?'l[PS scares 1 The.. Saudis and falhng;.oil-prices: the ........ .:. 10 Approved For Release 2009/12/30: CIA-RDP87-00462R000100110023-9