STRATEGIC PLANNING STUDY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87M00220R000700780002-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2009
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: October 2, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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DCI/ICS 85-6419/1
2 October 1985
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM:
Director, Intelligence Community Staff
SUBJECT: Strategic Planning Study
1. Action Requested. That you sign the attached memo to Community
principals, advising them of our intention to prepare a Community Strate is
Planning Study and asking them to comment on a draft Terms of Reference
2. Background. The proposed Strategic Planning Study would cover the
time period up to 1995. It would build on the 1985 Capabilities Study (last
revisited in 1983), and would lead to an updated statement of DCI Goals and
Objectives. It would encompass all collection disciplines and intelligence
functions, but would focus on the principal intelligence challenges forecast
for the time period. We would expect to devise a list of 12-15 such
challenges and identify the capabilities required to respond to them. The
study would draw on substantial recent work done for SIGINT and Imagery, and
would provide an interdisciplinary structure for integrating such efforts
3. A policy group chaired by the DDCI would oversee the study. Steering
of the day-to-day effort would be carried out through, an existing Planning
Working Group chaired by the Director, Planning and Policy Staff/ICS. A staff
working group drawn from the Community would do most of the actual
preparation. . The study would begin in November 1985 and end in spring 1986.
4. I have discussed this proposal with the DDCI and believe that the
timing is right, especially given the resource environment projected over the
next few years and the recent Congressional interest aimed at the elaboration
of an intelligence strategy for the future. This kind of forward-looking
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SUBJECT: Strategic Planning Study
study would be a critical step in the evolution of any such strategy. It has
merit outside that context as well, as it would constitute a useful framework
for the development of the NFIP.
5. Recommendation. That you sign the attached memo.
Attachments:
A. Memo to Program Man
B. Terms of Referenc
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SUBJECT: Strategic Planning Study
DISTRIBUTION:
Orig - Addressee (w/cy 4 of atts)
2 - DDCI (w/cy 1 of atts)
3 - D/ICS (w/cy 5 of atts)
4 - D/PPS (w/cy 19 of atts)
5 - DD/PPS/Planning (w/cy 20 of atts)
6 - PPS Chrono (w/cy 21 of atts)
7 - PPS Subject (w/cy 22 of atts)
8 - ICS Registry (w/cy 23 of atts)
DCI/ICS/PPS I(30 September 1985)
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The Director of Central Intelligence
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director, Intelligence Community Staff
Assistant Secretary of Defense for Command, Control,
Communications and Intelligence
Director, Defense Intelligence Agency
Director, National Security Agency/Chief, Central
Security Service
Under Secretary of the Air Force
Director, Bureau of Intelligence and Research,
Department of State
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department
of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence,
Department of the Air Force
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence,
Department of the Army
Director of Intelligence, U.S. Marine Corps
Assistant Director, Intelligence Division,
Federal Bureau of Investigation
Executive Director, Central Intelligence Agency
Special Assistant to the Secretary (National Security)
Department of the Treasury
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Intelligence,
Department of Energy
SUBJECT: DCI Strategic Planning Study
1. Attached for your review is a draft Terms of Reference to produce a
Community Strategic Planning Study covering the period up to 1995. The
proposed study is intended to articulate the most important intelligence
challenges that will face the Community in that period and to identify the
capabilities that must be developed to respond to the challenges. This
examination will lead to a statement of the significant Community goals and
objectives necessary to guide resource planning well into the 1990s. I
believe the timing for such a study is right, given the resource environment
projected over the coming years and the accompanyin need to be certain our
programs are shaped to the most important problems.
2. What is needed is a comprehensive study--using work that has been
accomplished within individual collection disciplines--which will address all
aspects of the intelligence process and provide us with the necessary emphasis
and direction to move into the 1990s. For example, much useful work has been
done in the area of signals intelligence, as evidenced by the recently
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SUBJECT: DCI Strategic Planning Study
completed Phase II of the Future SIGINT Capabilities Study: that kind of work
must now be placed within a Community framework.
3. I have asked John McMahon to lead a limited membership Policy Review
Group to oversee the preparation of the study. However, the full cooperation
of principal Community members will be necessary if the effort is to
succeed. You should also give some thought to how your organization can best
participate in this effort. To ensure that the concerns of Community members
are considered and that the study is sharply focused, I should appreciate
receiving Your comments on the attached Terms of Reference. I have asked
to coordinate the study and request that you send your
suggestions directl to him. He should receive them no later than
15 October 1985.
Attachment:
Terms of Reference
cc: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Chairman, National Intelligence Council
Chairman, Intelligence Producers Council
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SUBJECT: DCI Strategic Planning Study
DISTRIBUTION: (DCI/ICS 85-6419 w/att
Copy I- DDCI (Mr. John McMahon)
2 - C/NIC (Mr. Robert Gates)
3 - C/IPC (Mr. Richard Kerr)
4r- DCI (Mr. William J. Casey)
5 - D/ICS
6 - ASD(C I) (Mr. Donald Latham)
7 - D/DIA (MajGen Leonard Perroots, USAF)
8 - DIRNSA (LTG William E. Odom, USA)
9 - Under Secretary of the Air Force (Mr. Edward C. Aldridge)
10 - D/INR/State (Ambassador Morton I. Abramowitz)
11 - DNI
12 - Asst Chief of Staff for Intelligence, USAF (MajGen Schuyler Bissell)
13 -.Asst Chief of Staff for Intelligence, USA (LTG Sidney Weinstein, USA)
14 - D/Intelligence/USMC (BGen Frank Breth, USMC)
15 - Asst Dir/Intelligence Div/FBI (Mr. James H. Geer)
16 - ExDir/CIA
17 - Special Asst to Secretary, Dept of Treasury (Mr. Douglas Mulholland)
18 - Dep Asst Sec for Intelli ence, Dept of Energy (Mr. Charles Boykin)
19 - D/PPS
20 - DD/PPS/Planning
21 - PPS Chrono
22 - PPS Subject
23 - ICS Registry
DCI/ICS/PPSI I(30 September 1985)
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TERMS OF REFERENCE
DCI STRATEGIC PLANNING STUDY: 1990-1995
BACKGROUND. In 1981, the Intelligence Community prepared a 1985
Intelligence Capabilities Study, which focused on intelligence needs for the
hlt a oche eighties; in 1983, the study was reviewed and its findings
second
reaffirmed. A companion effort, a statement of "Goals and Objectives of the
Director of Central Intelligence 1984-1990," was derived from the study and
published in 1982. Taken together, these documents have served as a basis for
long-range Intelligence Community planning, and have influenced the DCI's
annual program and budget guidance.
Steps have since been taken towards realization of many of the
capabilities identified in 1981, and headway has been made towards attainment
of the companion goals and objectives. It is now prudent to examine the
impact of this progress in light of the evolving resource environment and the
challenges that are expected to prevail in the nineties. Significant work has
been done in the intervening years to define the Intelligence Community's
future needs and to identify effective system mixes to meet those needs. Most
of this work has centered on individual disciplines, such as SIGINT. What is
needed is a synthesis of various such approaches to define a coherent
intelligence strategy for the first half of the next decade.
PURPOSE. To develop an intelligence strategy for the 1990s by identifying
the most important intelligence challenges that will face the US in that
period and reviewing the capabilities that will be needed to meet them. To
articulate the goals and objectives necessary to ensure an efficient and
comprehensive intelligence program is pursued. To provide an implicit basis
for investment guidance and program structuring
SCOPE. The study will focus on the period from 1990 through 1995 and will
include all aspects of the intelligence process (collection, processing,
analysis, and production). It will be comprehensive in the sense that it will
embrace any issue or topic that is of crucial concern to the Community. In
its findings, however, it will be limited in the sense that only the most
important topics will be addressed. The goal is to develop a broadly
conceived document that provides a solid foundation for strategic intelligence
planning. Judgments on which intelligence capabilities should receive
emphasis or priority in the future will be implied.
PROCEDURE. A Policy Review Group, chaired by the DDCI, will set overall
goals for the study, receive interim reports as major portions are completed,
and review the study prior to submission to the DCI. It will ensure
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high-level involvement in the effort from its beginning. Membership will
include the following: Director, IC Staff; Director, NSA; Director, DIA;
Executive Director, CIA; Director, NRO; Assistant Secretary of Defense, C31;
the Assistant Director, Intelligence Division, FBI; and the Chairman,
'Intelligence Producers Council. The Director. Planning and Policy Staff, IC
Staff will serve as the Executive Secretary.
The Planning Working Group, which is an existing body chaired by the
Director, Planning and Policy Staff/IC Staff, will be the principal steering
group for the study. This group will validate issues and guide the efforts of
a Staff Working Group drawn from the Community. It will approve drafts
prepared by the Staff Working Group, and its individual members will be
responsibile for home-agency coordination and cooperation.
A Staff Working Group will prepare the study. This group will be chaired
by the Deputy Director for Planning, PPS/IC Staff. Interested agencies and
departments will be tasked to provide representatives. Its composition will
be adjusted as necessary to ensure knowledgeable representation is available
for all phases of the study. Such adjustment should provide flexibility while
assuring that sufficient continuity exists to produce a cohesive document. At
the chairman's option, panels will be formed to deal with selected topics; it
is expected, however, that most work will be done by the Working Group as a
whole.
A sequential order of tasks will be pursued. As a first step, the
National Intelligence Council will be tasked to prepare a "view of the
future," a view that will encompass the intelligence requirements and
challenges expected to be the most significant in the projected time period.
Although this view will necessarily be based on a geopolitical forecast of the
world in the 1990s, it is essential that specific issues and complexities be
identified at a level which has meaning for collection, processing,
analytical, and distribution capabilities. This view of the future will be
provided to the Community (both collectors and consumers) for comment and
emendation. The Staff Working Group will then prepare a list of challenges
and issues, drawing on this view, on previous work done for the SIGINT and
Imagery studies, and on individual agency contributions.
The list of challenges and issues identified by the Staff Working Group
will be validated by the Planning Working Group and winnowed to a small set
(12-15) of the most significant or difficult. Staff Working Group membership
will then be altered to assess required capabilities. Validation procedures
used will be the same as for issue identification. Program Managers will be
asked to evaluate the issues in terms of current and programmed capabilities.
For some disciplines, previous studies should prove extremely useful in making
this assessment.
The Intelligence Community Staff will be tasked to prepare a forecast of
the anticipated resource environment for the early-to-mid nineties, which will
also be furnished to Program Managers to aid in their evaluation of plausible
responses to the issues and problems that have been identified. Using such
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inputs, the Staff Working Group will construct capability matrices related to
the Community's most important needs. These matrices will provide an
integrated look at required capabilities.
The Staff Working Group (with membership alteration if necessary) will
then examine the required capabilities to derive new DCI goals and objectives
for the post-1990 time period. A key part of this effort will be a review of
the existing statement of goals and objectives to reaffirm or revise them
where needed. The goals and objectives will be stated in terms of where we
are and where we need to be, and should provide the necessary foundation for
future programs. Again, validation will be provided by the Planning Working
Group.
PREVIOUS EFFORTS. Recent planning efforts for SIGINT and Imagery contain
various formulations of perceived future challenges or issues of importance to
the Community. The SIGINT study presents considerable work on desirable
system architectures. Other recent studies also include agreed views on
future problems and needs. All this work will be drawn on. What is sought is
a synthesis of these and similar efforts to ensure an interdisciplinary view
is taken.
TIMING. The stud will begin in November 1985. It should be completed in
spring 1986.
PARTICIPANTS. Policy Review Group and Planning Working Group membership
will be as described above. All NFIB members will be tasked to participate in
the Staff Working Group in the areas where they have substantive interests and
responsibilities. Membership in this group, the principal drafting mechanism,
will be adjusted to meet the needs of the various phases of the study.
Adminiqtr-at~ support will be furnished by the Intelligence Community Staff.
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