PAPERS FOR THE SIXTH ASEAN-U.S. ECONOMIC DIALOGUE, WASHINGTON, APRIL 2-3, 1985

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CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4
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RIPPUB
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C
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12
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December 22, 2016
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January 28, 2010
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11
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Publication Date: 
March 8, 1985
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MEMO
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28 :CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 f- EXECUTIVE SECRETARIAT ROUTING SLIP ACTION INFO DATE INITIAL 1 DCI 2 DDCI 3 EXDIR 4 D/ICS 5 DDI 6 DDA 7 DDO 8 DDSBT 9 Chm/NIC 10 GC 11 IG 12 Compt 13 D/Pers 14 D/OLL 15 D/PAO 16 SA/IA 17 AO/DCI 18 C/IPD/OIS 19 20 21 22 Please provide necessary sux~port to State. - State Dept. review completed xecutrve ecretary 11~1arch 1985 3637 ~10-~'~ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28 :CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 ` `~ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 MEMORANDUM FOR: (With CONFIDENTIAL attachments) P - Mr. E - Mr. T - Mr. M - Mr. C - Mr. Armacost Wallis Schneider DePree, Acting Derwinski ARA - Mr. Motley EAP - Mr. Wolfowitz \ EUR - Mr. IMN - Mr. INR - Mr. IO - Mr. NEA - Mr. OES - Mr. S/P - Mr. S/NP - Mr. AID = Mr. M Burt DiCarlo Abramowitz Newell Murphy Malone Rodman Kennedy cPherson IA CEA - COMMERCE - INTERIOR/ - USGS r. S Mrs. Mr. G prink Robbi leaso el ns n ~~U'~:30y f~5U733-~ Executive Registry ~I 85- ~ ~ P ~~ COMMERCE INTERIOR GSA, LABOR TREASURY 25X1 > DA USTR USIA S/S-S (DIR) TMA TMB TMC RF GSA - Mr. Kline LABOR - Mr. Searby TREASURY - Mr. Hicks USDA - Mr. Lett USTR - Mr. Smith USIA - Mr. LaSalle SUBJECT: Papers for the Sixth ASEAN-U.S. Economic Dialogue, Washington, April 2-3, 1985 E LIAISON: David M. Sloan, 632-7448, Room 7260 EAP COORDINATOR: Edward J. Chesky, EAP/EP, 632-4835 S/S PROJECT Room 5321 , OFFICER: Angus Simmons, 632-1523, Room 7241 Under Secretary Allen Wallis will head the U.S. Delegation to the ASEAN-U.S. Economic Dialogue in the Department of State, April 2-3, 1985. This memorandum assigns drafting and clearing responsibilities for the preparation of papers related to the Dialogue. LIMITED OFFICIAL USE Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 CONFIDENTIAL URGENT United States Department of State RTash i ngton, D. C. 20520 March 8, 1985 LIMITED OFFICIAL USE ` a Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 LIMITED OFFICIAL USE I. GENERAL PROCEDURES A. All papers must be cleared as indicated. Two copies of single-spaced draft papers (with all but E clearances) should be delivered to E (Room 7256, Department of State) by 4 p.m., March 23. E will notify drafting officers that changes in draft papers are required or that they can deliver final papers with no change directly to S-S/S. Final, fully cleared papers should be delivered to S/S-S by 4 p.m., March 26. B. Agenda, country, project, and background papers for the briefing book should be prepared on 8 1/2" by 11" plain white bond paper, observing the sample formats contained in Attachments 1, 2, 3, and 4. Drafting and clearing information for all papers should be on the last page. Agenda papers should not exceed three pages in length, including the principal objectives and talking points. Other papers should not be more than one page in length, with contingency talking points not exceeding one additional page. It is essential that drafting officers obtain all Department of State and interagency clearances prior to submission of drafts to E. A. Scope Paper. EAP should prepare a scope paper outlining the issues and objectives for the Dialogue. The format is a briefing memorandum from Mr. Wolfowitz to Mr. Wallis. It should place the meeting in the perspective of U. S.. economic relations with ASEAN members and our expectations of the Sixth ASEAN-U.S. Economic Dialogue. Clear with E and EB. B. Country Papers. EAP should prepare a country paper on each of the six member nations of ASEAN using the format of Attachment 1. Each paper should provide general political and economic information as well as specific problems or key issues of the country. Clear with E and P. E. Agenda, Background, and Project Papers. The agenda papers should be drafted using the format in Attachment 2. Background papers should be like Attachment 3. Project papers should follow the format in Attachment 4. D. Biographies. EAP should provide to S/S-S by 4 p.m., March 12 a list of the names of all senior members of the ASEAN delegations. S/S-S will obtain biographic sketches for the briefing book from this list. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 LIMITED OFFICIAL USE - 3 - LIST OF AGENDA PAPERS Draft Clear I. Opening Remarks by U.S. and ASEAN Spokesmen.....EAP II. Business Arrangements ...........................EAP III. Adoption of the Provisional Agenda ..............EAP IV. Review of International Economic Issues of V. Review of ASEAN-U.S. Dialogue ...................EAP VI. International Trade Issues A. U.S. Trade and Tariff Act of 1984 ..........USTR B. GATT Matters (including Codes & New Round)..USTR C. Textile Trade (including MFA Renewal).......USTR D. Commodity Issues: Rubber ...................EB Sugar ....................EB Tin ......................EB E. Protection of Intellectual Property.........EB F. Specific Trade Issues (ASEAN to specify)....EB VII. International Financial Issues A. Development Cooperation .....................AID B. Investment Issues and Climate ...............EB VIII. Briefing by the ASEAN-US Business Council.......EAP IX. Other Matters ...................................EAP X. Consideration of the Joint Press Statement......EAP XI. Concluding Statements ...........................EAP Background Papers EAP,EB EAP,EB EAP,EB EAP,USDOC EAP,USDA EAP,GSA EAP,USTR EAP,USTR,USDOC EAP,EB,TREAS EAP, USTR, TREAS EB EB EB Draft Clear 1. ASEAN and China .............................EAP 2. ASEAN and Cambodia ..........................EAP 3. Indochinese Refugees ........................EAP RP 4. ASEAN and MIAs in Southeast Asia............EAP 5. ASEAN and Australia .........................EAP 6. Pacific Basin-Human Resources Development...S/SA EAP 7. Statistical Data on ASEAN Economies.........EAP Cooperative Project Papers Draft Clear Individual Papers on Each Project .............AID & EAP Other Agencies Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 LIMITED OFFICIAL USE -4- NOTES: S/S-S requires the original plus three copies of all papers. Drafting and clearance information should appear on a separate page. Papers should be delivered directly to the S/S-S action officer. They should NOT be logged in. Nicholas Platt Executive Secretary Attachments: 1. List of Due Dates 2. Country Paper 3. Agenda Paper 4. Background Paper 5. Project Paper LIMITED OFFICIAL USE Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 _ ' Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 MARCH 12 Biographies MARCH 23 in E in draft Scope Paper Country Papers Agenda, Background, and Project Papers. MARCH 26 in final in S/S-S Scope Paper Country Papers Agenda, Background, and Project Papers ___ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28 :CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 PHILIPPINES: COUNTRY PAPER The Philippine economic growth rate has declined in recent years and may be negative in real terms for 1983. The country's economic difficulties are largely the result of the world-wide recession which reduced demand for' its traditional exports, although structural weaknesses in the economy also played a part. The GOP resorted to heavy external borrowing to offset trade deficits. The Philippines now faces a critical liquidity problem due to capital flight and the drying up of private bank credits in the wake of political uncertainties. In October this year, the GOP declared a 21 percent devaluation of the peso and a 90-day suspension (beginning Gctober 14) of payments on private principal debt, a likely prelude to debt rescheduling. The U.S., which has provided about X40 million in Development Assistance and DSO million in ESF annually, reprogram,~,ed the FY 84 ESF to allow faster disbursement, and we are considering other support mechanisms which might be instituted once the GOP reaches agreement with the Il`iF on a new Standby. T}ie lonoer term outlook appears more favorable due to the upturn -fn the world economy, recent economic reforms and un~erlying factors such as a highly trained labor force and oeographic location. Agreement with the I~;F is near, and this could be the first step toward financial recovery. However, recovery wi 11 require close cooper?~,t ion;,a;~ong the GOP, interr,ational.fir,ancial institutions ar~d concerned bilateral partners. :l-~i lippi ne economic and financial difficulties have been ex~cerl~,~t~d by the u?ettIed political situation. The ir,co,~clusiv~ Aouino as.s.-:ssination investigation h?s seriously da:~aced the regime's credibility., and the crucial question of J?'arcos' successor, including concerns over the inadequacy of the ex i st i ~~g transition ;~echani sm should he die or become incapacitated in office, has further ~.?eaker.ed l~i~blic confidence. In .response to growing de;r~ncs for }lim to designate a successor, ?resident I~:arcos has reportc-clly agreed to create a post of vice presid,~nt, toho ti.ould be elected with the president beginning with the next schcdu]ed presidential el~,ction in 1?87. D?ri,~g t)~e interim, the *?:,~tional ?=.ss~;nbly Speek~r would suce~~d ;?;arcos should he be unable to co;~plete his term. 'This change would require a constitutio:~al a;n~ndment. Some p,?c~~ress has b~~n ?ade on ~:orking out a revised el act ion co.~e for t}~,e T?;ay 1?34 2:~~tional i-.ssembly elections, ~:}?,ich will be r-,n irlp~~rtant test of political normalization. :}~e de:~o~:r.-~tic opposition }gas been foc?ssing its energies on public de~,o,~strations to keep ;?:arcos off balance, but it has f~~ilcd to cc::,e up with a credible candidate or progr.:m to chat lc?r.ge him dir~-?ct ly. ??;?~rcos has rejacted calls to resi~~n, but it is uncertain t:h~~t:}-,er the ch,~nges now being ~Ii~cus~ed c~~r.c~_rni;,y s;.,?_~_es:~i~n end parli,~?c?ntaiy e1.-~ti~ns ~.~ill be suffi~.i,-?nt to ci~?-?,.k ;lie hu}~lic di.~.~ff,~ction with }pis rc~yine ti;~,l~_}l h.-:~ ~,,,,??:n in r,~,:c?nt ti:c,~}:s. _r i ~ `i Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28 :CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 PROSPECTS FOR AT)1~TTM tAr rATT TRAnF UFC'nTTATTr1 tc SS.S.II~ The United States is committed to continue the process of trade liberalization. At Williamsburg, the summit partners agreed to work toward trade liberalization negotiations in the GATT, with emphasis on trade with developing countries. Since ASEAN was supportive of our proposal for a North/South round at the GATT Ministerial, we should look for ways to keep the ASEAN interest in mutual trade liberalization alive. S 1 GES D 1AT KTNG POTNTS -- Our long-term objective in the trade policy field is to maintain the momentum for trade liberalization that has built up since the GATT was founded. We have an open mind as to how this can b,e accomplished, and pledged at Williamsburg to continue exploring this area. Any ideas you might have would be welcome. -- At the same time we recognize just as you do, the need to maintain the openness of existing markets, especially for products from the developing world. I assure you we do not take lightly our standstill and rollback commitments. -- Certainly, as far as ASEAN is concerned, our market remains very accessible. Between 1972 and 1982, your exports to us have increased significantly, by over 23 percent per year. GSP has been an important factor in your export growth; your GSP shipments have increased almost five-fold over the life of the program. -- j:e are willing to open our market still further. However, we will do so in the context of market-opening moves by others, and will consider whatever ideas seem promising, provided they are based on mutual market-opening. We look forward to ASEAN being active participants in whatever new round of trade negotiations emerges in the GATT. LIMITED OFFTCT~T. USF -TT , - ---- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 - ? ~ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 LTMTTED OFFT T~qL tI~FL -- Indeed, we are very willing to explore ways in which the U.S. and ASEAN can lead the way toward freer trade by taking liberalizing measures between ourselves. Ambassador Brock's idea for the phased elimination of all barriers to trade between ASEAN and the United States presented in Singapore earlier this year was in that spirit. It is one option we are considering; we are willing to explore others, and as I said earlier your ideas are most welcome. F.SSFI~TTTAT FA T(1RC The long-term objective of the United States in the trade policy field is to ruaintain the momentum for trade liberalization that has built up since the GATT was founded, and to explore new opportunities for accelerating the movement toward freer trade. In the months preceding the GATT Ministerial, the O.S. and Switzerland sought endorsement of a GATT round of trade negotiations between developed and developing countries. Although the Ministers did not agree to an immediate launching of negotiations, they did call for a study within the GATT Committee on Trade and Development (CTD) of "ways in which to facilitate increased trade bet~~een developed and developing countries." The GATT has already approved the Secretariat's outline of the study on this issue, which we now expect will be available before the next CTD meeting in Nlarch. The CTD is also undertaking several other initiatives following up on the GATT Ministerial including a review of implementation of Part IV of the GATT and the "Enabling Clause" which outlines provisions for special and differential treatment for LDCs and tropical product consul- tations. The U.S. hopes that these efforts will result in the progressive integration of developing countries into the trading system by persuading them to open their markets. The structure of the proposed North/South round, which envisages tariff reductions to developing countries in exchange for LDC tariff and non-tariff concessions will contribute significantly to that objective. The idea of a North/South Round has received additional attention since the GATT Ministerial. The Summit partners at Williamsburg agreed to "work to achieve further trade liberalization negotiations in the GATT, with particular emphasis on expanding trade with and among developing countries." LTMTTED OFFTC'T~1~ USE "f T- -T - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 - R 4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 l,TMTTED OFFTrTAT USF The ASEANs were supportive of the North/South Round at the Ministerial. Their belief that open markets are in their own best interest has been partially obscured by their short-term problems. We hope that the ASEAN countries will remain open to the possibility of a North/South Round in the future and will continue to work with us on avenues for mutual liberalization in the context of the GATT. DRAFTED: EB/OT/ODC:N.Barrera` USTR:C Suro-Bredie 11/21/83 632-3202 Clearances..: EB/ODC:B. Hirshorn C,~1'b ~~ EA/EP :L.Moriarty ~~ ~ E : G. Al d o na s GX'~ ~,-- Labor :D.Parker c.~s~c?~ Commerce: L. Droker cS ~,- Treasury: L. Berger GS~ - EA:EP: H. Bardach ~ CS4~Q: EA:A.C. Albrecht cS~~'-"~ LIMITED OFFT TAL USE Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 INDOCHINESE REFUGEES While the influx of Indochinese refugees into the ASEAN first asylum countries has declined markedly, the international resettlement effort has also been reduced. Some ASEAN governments fear that they may be left with a large residue of Indochinese refugees. SUGGESTED TALKING POINTS -- The US will give continued emphasis to the international resettlement of Indochinese refugees in ASEAN countries. President Reagan is personally committted to this program. -- While the US ceiling .for Indochinese refugees was reduced from 64,000 in FY82 to 50,000 in FY83, our actual off-take will undoubtedly be larger than last year. This is because we a_re processing refugees more quickly and at a higher approval rate since the President issued new processing guidelines. '' r -- We are working with ot]',er resettlement countries to ensure that the ASEAN first settlement countries will witness a steady reduction in the Indochinese refugee pt~pulation, not only this year but until the problem is effectively resolved. ESSENTIAL FACTORS The Thais in particular are upset because we are unable to meet their request for 3,500 departures monthly. T'ney would like to see our off-take keep pace with the much more efficient processing rate. h'e cannot, however, meet this request under current budgetary and space (in the refugee processing centers) constraints. .?7e wish to keep the ASEANs focussed on the overall reduction in the refugee population, not on actual processing or departure figures, which will necessarily decline. November 25, 1983 CONFIDENTIAL DI:CT~; OADR. -,, ;-- ;- - - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4 DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION: NEW INITIATIVES SUPPORTED BY OR REQUESTED OF A.I.D. ISSUE: ASEAN Energy Cooperation in Development Project This project was signed during the 4th ASEAN-U.S. Dialogue, and has been fully funded by A.I.D. at the original commitment of $1.0 million. It has three sub-components, for coal utilization, energy efficiency in building construction, and alternative energy systems for water pumping. ASEAN's September 27, 1983 submission of proposals to ALO Melville has requested that the components for energy conservation and water pumping be extended or revised. A successful energy conservation in building construction pilot activity has been conducted in Singapore, including some consultation with other ASEAN countries. An ASEAN workshop is planned for early 1984 that will pave the way for a broader activity involving the Philippines and Thailand. This phase could be developed as a FY 85 amendment to the ASEAN Energy Cooperation in Development Project. The Philippine USAID mission, if it goes ahead with its planned energy conservation project, might be willing to manage the activity. About X500,000 would be needed if Singapore, Philippines, and Thailand were included in the next phase. A.I.D. could not make a formal commitment to amend the project at the Dialogue, but is willing to review the proposed amendment. A.I.D. is working out final details to permit the water-pumping sub-component to begin. The main problem is availability of Government of Malaysia resources for the village water supply development and maintenance of the demonstration site. A.I.D. is ready to negotiate a contract with the U.S. contractor, Sheladia, for the technical assistance. No additional funding is necessary at this time to carry out this sub-component, nor does A.I.D. recommend extending this sub-component beyond the original plan. As the U.S. Delegation departs for the Dialogue, we learn that the Indonesians may propose to extend the coal technology sub-component, and that their proposal would be presented at the Dialogue. Drafters:AID/ASIA/ISPA:LKuhn:AID/ASIA/TR:RIchord:(sub);.~mp:11/28/83 Clearance:AID/ASIA/ISPA:DBarrett (draft) 11/28/83 EA/ED:HBardach/EJCheskv ~ ~. -r ; ---r Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/01/28: CIA-RDP87M00539R000901210011-4