TERRORISM WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87M00539R002604360010-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 21, 2009
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: September 3, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
NIC 04409-85
3 September 1985
Charles E. Allen
National Intelligence Officer for Counterterrorism
and Narcotics
SUBJECT: Terrorism Warning and Forecast Meeting
Representatives of the Intelligence Community met on 15 August 1985
to discuss the following issues: the terrorist threat to Chile; Libyan
terrorist threat to the Sudan; Syrian/Palestinian terrorism in Western
Europe; terrorist challenge to the Persian Gulf States; and foreign
terrorist threat in the US. Attached is my report.
Char es E. Allen
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Terrorism Warning and Forecast Meeting
Main Discussion Items
A. The Terrorist Threat to Chile
1. Discussion
On the eve of the 12th anniversary celebrating the overthrow of the
leftist Allende regime, President Pinochet faces a rising tide of opposition
from moderates and radical leftists as antiregime protests continue to grow
and the Communist Party (PCCH) intensifies its recent campaign of bombings
and attacks against the regime.
We do not believe the Communist Party and the Chilean left are ready at
this time to enter into a full-blown conflict with the Chilean military to
topple Pinochet. Over time, this may become an objective. They are
prepared, however, to use terrorist tactics now to discredit and wear down
Chilean security services, destabilize the regime, and harass and provoke
Pinochet into reimposing a national "state of siege" (lifted last June)
which will result in new repressive measures and thereby polarize the
populace.. This will:
-- Discredit Pinochet's claim that the internal security situation is
under control.
-- Provoke considerable adverse international publicity for the
Pinochet regime.
-- Force the military high command to break ranks and possibly remove
Pinochet from office.
-- Persuade the populace that Pinochet can only be removed by means of
violence.
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The Communists are also using terrorism to retaliate against recent
killings of Communist members by police officials and right-wing death
squads. Terrorists are also increasingly targeting US-related facilities.
US installations were the target of only one terrorist attack in 1982, but
the number of attacks increased to 15 in 1984, and 19 so far this year.
Targets have included the US Consulate, Chilean Binational Center at
Rancagua, and the Mormon Church. The increased frequency of the attacks and
growing lethality clearly put US citizens at increased risk in Chile.
The nature of the latest round of terrorist attacks indicates there is
more central direction and coordination of terrorist activities by the
PCCH. The Communists are reported to be growing more confident that their
violent tactics are working. This is in part due to increased help from the
Soviet Union and some of its satellite and client states.
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B. Libyan Terrorist Threat to the Sudan
1. Discussion
The potential for Libyan terrorist operations in the Sudan continues to
grow. Since President Nimeiri's ouster in April, Colonel Qadhafi has wasted
no time in laying the groundwork to replace the transitional regime with a
Libyan-style government if the opportunity arises. He continues to
infiltrate large numbers of Sudanese radicals belonging to the Libyan-backed
Sudanese Revolutionary Committees (SRCs) into the Sudan. At the same time,
Qadhafi also may be considering terrorist attacks against US personnel
and facilities in the Sudan through the use of Sudanese surrogates. He has
drawn parallels between terrorist operations in Lebanon, which he believes
helped "liberate" the country from US influence, and Libyan goals in the
Sudan. In five major speeches since the beginning of the year, he and his
senior lieutenant Abdal-Salam Jallud have extolled the use of suicide
terrorist tactics against the United States. Qadhafi would like to remove
US influence from the Sudan, and Libyan-backed Sudanese could target US
facilities and personnel if his
anti-US sentiment in the Sudan.
Sudanese demands for Cairo's return of former President Nimeiri to the Sudan
to stand trial could provide the necessary issues.
Sudanese officials are unable to provide full protection for the US
Embassy and have warned US Personnel to be careful.
There is an apparent division be
Libyans in the Sudan over the political pace and the extent to which
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terrorism should be used to achieve Libya's objectives.
C. Syrian/Palestinian Terrorism in Western Europe
1. Discussion
We are concerned about the dramatic acceleration of Middle Eastern
terrorism in Western Europe. In 1983 there were twenty-one incidents of
Middle Eastern origin in Western Europe. Last year the number more than
doubled. Thirty-two incidents have been reported for the first half of
1985. With several notable exceptions--the TWA hijacking most
recently--most Middle Eastern incidents involve Middle Easterners as both
perpetrators and targets. Palestinians and Syrian surrogates are the major
perpetrators. Sixteen out of 32 incidents this year have involved
Palestinians, both radical and moderate.
Syria and Syrian-backed Palestinian groups opposing Arafat intend to
inhibit the current momentum for a US-Jordanian-Palestinian dialogue by
employing terrorist intimidation tactics against Jordan and pro-Arafat
Palestinians in Western Europe. Fatah Palestinians loyal to Arafat have
fueled the violence by launchina
anainct Svria_
We believe that the
Syrian/Palestinian-related terrorist violence in Western Europe will likely
escalate. Syria probably will target Jordanian and Fatah targets more
frequently, and we can expect Fatah loyalists to attack Syrian targets in
Western Europe with increased frequency as Arafat supporters seek revenge.
2. Key Intelligence Questions/Requirements
Even though we expect Syrian/Palestinian violence to escalate, we
believe it will remain confined to Middle Eastern targets. US officials or
private citizens could, however, be caught in the crossfire.
(Palestinian
and several other Middle Eastern terrorist groups and state-supported
terrorists appear to be gradually expanding their operational capability in
Western Europe.
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D. Terrorist Challenge to the Persian Gulf States
1. Discussion
In the Gulf region, the several conservative states of the Persian Gulf
have entered a period of growing terrorist challenge which--when combined
with increased political, economic and subversive problems--could
destabilize some of our friends and allies in the region over the next three
to five years. Several characteristics make these states particularly
attractive targets for Iranian and Syrian terrorism. They are conservative
monarchies that are repugnant to both religious zealots and leftist
revolutionaries; several have substantial populations of disaffected Shias;
and they have large numbers of expatriate workers whose loyalties lie
elsewhere and whose foreign ties are difficult to monitor, much less
control. Moreover, the assassination attempt on the Amir of Kuwait in May
and the recent discoveries of arms smuggling in Bahrain, Qatar, and the
United Arab Emirates raise serious questions about these regimes' ability to
protect themselves.
more terrorist operations in the Gulf. Kuwait has witnessed five major
terrorist attacks since the bombing of the US Embassy in 1983. Radical
Shias belonging to the Iranian-backed Dawa Party probably were responsible
Trends would indicate that both Iran and Syria can be expected to mount
for the attempt on the life of the Amir,'
suspect that Damascus was responsible for the recent bombings of two crowded
cafes in Kuwait last June because Assad is displeased over a reduction in
assistance from the Kuwaiti government,
ese groups, including the Dawa Party, have long-range plans and
assets in Bahrain to assassinate government leaders
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E. Foreign Threat in the US
1. Discussion
Sikh extremism continues to pose the greatest threat. The Sikhs
believed to be responsible for the Air India disaster and the airport
bombings in Japan remain at large and pose a high threat to Rajiv Gandhi
during his scheduled attendance at the UN General Assembly in New York and
the Commonwealth Conference in the Bahamas in October.
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 DCI/NIC/A/NIO/CT,
SUBJECT: Counterterrorism Warning and Forecast Report
Distribution:
CYS 1 - 15 - NIO/Warning
16 - Stefanie Stauffer, State/SY
17 - Randall Elliott, State/INR
18 - Lisbeth Renwick, DOE
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- CAPT Rosetta McKinney, Army/ITAC
- LTC John Lewin, Army/DAMI
NSA/G I
- CMDR Jerry B. Agee, NIS
FBI
- Marion A. Dana, USSS
- Judith Bertini, DEA
DIA/OS-1
- Thomas Rowan Air Force/OSI
JSOC/Ft. Bragg
- LT OL George Alvarez, Marine Corps
- CMDR Thomas J. McCarthy, Coast Guard
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SUBJECT: Counterterrorism Warning and Forecast Report
DCI/NIC/A/NIO/CT,
Distribution: Internal
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FBIS Prod. Group
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