RESULTS OF A RECENT CONFERENCE ON NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION INTELLIGENCE THROUGH THE 1980S

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87R00029R000200320021-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 22, 2007
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: August 6, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

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Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
11 August 1981
Mr. George B. Lambrakis
Director, Near"Eastern and South
Asian Regional Affairs
Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20520
Thank you for your participation in the recent con-
ference on Nuclear Proliferation Intelligence Through the
1980s. I am enclosing a copy of the conference report. I
would be happy to have your comments on it or any aspect of
the conference proceedings. I look forward to working with
you in the future and will value any additional suggestions
for improving intelligence in this important area.
Sincerely,
Enclosure:
Conference Report
Special Assistant for
Nuclear Proliferation Intelligence
When Removed From Enclosure
Treat as UNCLASSIFIED
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W SECRETI' ?
NATIONAL FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE BOARD
NFIB 32.1/26
6 August 1981
MEMORANDUM FOR NATIONAL FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE BOARD
FROM . Walter Elder
Executive Secretary
SUBJECT : Results of a Recent Conference on Nuclear Proliferation
Intelligence Through the 1980s
A memorandum from the Deputy Director for Central Intelligence and a
conference report are attached for your information.
Attachments:
As Stated
SECR
 SECRET
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? The Deputy Director of Central Intelligence ?
Washington, D. C. 20505
31 July 1981
MEMORANDUM FOR: National Foreign Intelligence Board
SUBJECT: Results of a Recent Conference on Nuclear
Proliferation Intelligence Through the
1980s
The two-day conference on the subject, held under the auspices
of CIA, National Foreign Assessment Center's Special Assistant for
Nuclear Proliferation Intelligence, brought together Washington-
community policy and intelligence officials to develop a common un-
derstanding of the major issues in policy planning and in directing
on the results of the conference prepared in the form of a short sum-
mary, by region, of findings and issues raised. I recommend your
attention to steps that can be taken to ensure that the issues raised
in the course of the conference proceedings be incorporated and
addressed in the appropriate collection, research, and production
programs of your agency.
B. R . INMAN
Admiral, U.S. Navy
Attachment:
Conference Report
When Removed From Attach-
ment Treat as CONFIDENTIAL
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Conference Report
N,ir1pnr Proliferation Intelligence Through the 1980s
B - Summary Remarks of Admiral Bobby R. Inman, Deputy
Director of Central Intelligence
C - Summary Remarks of John N. McMahon, Deputy Director
for National Foreign Assessment
D - The Non-Proliferation Regime and Nuclear Suppliers
Regional Summaries
E - South Asia
F - Near East
G - East Asia
H - Africa
I - Latin America
J - Key Substantive Areas for Near-Term Attention
K - Perspectives of Policy Officials on Intelligence
L - Conference Attendees
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Conference Report
Nuclear Proliferation Intelligence Through the 1980s
A. Overview
The purpose of the conference was to increase the dialogue
between intelligence and policy officials on the range of issues
in the area of nuclear proliferation and related security matters.
A broad approach was taken which included the status and trends of
nuclear developments worldwide as well as a review of the major
collection assets of the Intelligence Community. The latter in-
volved the programs and activities of the CIA Operations Directorate,
the National Security Agency, the Air Force Technical Applications
Center, and imagery intelligence functions and contributions. The
main substantive issues that emerged in the course of he conference
proceedings are listed in Section J of this report. of
B. Summary DDCI Remarks
A fundamental question is how and the pace
at which in e igence updates consumers. Better coordination with,
and feedback from, consumers is needed. Intelligence is doing a
good job on tracking the potential of countries to develop nuclear
weapons, but in many cases there are deficiencies when it comes to
intentions. Of great importance is information on the thinking
about how wea ons might be used by countries moving toward their
acquisition
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C. Summary DD/NFA Remarks
The requisite resources will be given to problem of monitor-
ing nuclear developments worldwide. The nuclear target is a very
difficult one. Information is scanty, and security surrounding
nuclear programs is so high that it is difficult to make use of
information that is collected without risking the exposing of
sources. Human sources are the key to uncovering the intentions
of policymakers. It is essential that there be interaction be-
tween intelligence and policy people especially in the preparation
of diplomatic demarches and actions. II
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K. Perspectives of Policy Officials on Intelligence
Since at least 1975, the relationship between intelligence
and policy officials was said to be a good example of cooperation
in working together to solve a complex and difficult problem. (ACDA)
The very impressive intelligence base probably needed to be marketed
more effectively. (State/Policy Planning) Intelligence has an
excellent grasp of what's happening in countries of concern. (State/
Regional Bureau) In certain situations intelligence people have
more credibility than policy officials, and therefore great impor-
tance is attached to policy-intelligence "team" efforts. (State/INR)
Perceptions in the Congress of how other countries see the prolifera-
tion problem is lacking. (State/Functional Bureau)[
L. Conference Attendees
Department of State Department of Defense/JCS
Mr. John Boright Mr. Michael G. Macdonald
Ambassador Harry G. Barnes Brig. Gen. Joseph J. Skaff, USA
Mr. George B. Lambrakis
Mr. Jon Thomas
Ambassador Ronald I. Spiers
Mr. Galen Fox
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Department of Energy
Mr. Ben Rusche
Mr. Harold D. Bengelsdorf
Mr. Ralph E. Caudle
Dr. Julio Torres
Mr. Robert Barker (Lawerence
Livermore National Laboratory)
Arms Control and Disarmament Agency
Mr. Louis V. Nosenzo
Ms. Linda Gallini
Office of Management and Budget
Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Defense Intelligence Agency
National Security Agency
Central Intelligence Agency
Admiral Bobby R. Inman
Mr. John N. McMahon
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