SECRETARY SHULTZ'S IDEA FOR ASSESSMENT OF HOW TO LIVE IN A PROLIFERATED WORLD

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87R00029R000300470017-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 2, 2008
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: November 10, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

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SUBJECT: Secretary Shultz's Idea for Assessment of How to Live in a
Proliferated World
C
At Bob Gates' re uest convened a meeting this
afternoon (chaired by of several DDI analysts to discuss
approaches that might be taken on the subject. 0 will report results
to Gates who, in turn, will respond to the DCI's 5 November request to
look into the matter. I suggested the following steps:
-- The DDI take on the task of "structuring" the
"proliferated world," i.e., its time frame and the
countries that will be presumed to have military
capabilities and some descriptions of these, and
something on how they may have gotten there.
-- Someone like then be asked to draft a paper
covering US security requirements and options in such a
world.
-- Last step: draft to be reviewed and coordinated within
the Community given the substantial equities in the
assessment of the Departments of Defense and State.
The project could be well-suited for packaging and dissemination as
an Interagency Intelligence Memorandum (IIM).
25X1
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VC/NIC
Acting NI0/AL
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THE DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
8 November 1982
NOTE FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
See note to me about the
Director's reaction to Secretary Shultz's
request for an assessment of living in a
"proliferated world."
Harry Rowen
C/NIC
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? SECRET ? ?
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
8 November 1982
NOTE FOR: Harry Rowen
Chairman, National Intelligence Council
SUBJECT : A Nuclear-Armed Crowd Revisited
.0-11111 ____
Thinking about life in a "proliferated" world has been a
recurring intellectual enterprise (see, for example, the original
"Life in a Nuclear Crowd," copyright 1976 by Henry Rowen) the
results of which typically have been that such a world would be
vastly more dangerous than today's world. These general
conclusions are reached despite fundamental weaknesses and
uncertainties in projections about what the world will look like
and when. In any case, according to the attachment, Secretary
Schultz has now requested that such a probe (proscribed in the
Carter years) proceed anew (the DCI has asked Bob Gates to look
into its desira sponsored some external work in
this area under has
included it in his ongoing work at the
Recently, Dick Spier (formerly ACDA, now DoD) studied the problem
at NDC in a NESA context. On the whole, I think something could
be done along the lines of the Secretary's suggestion. But there
will have to be careful attention to its key component: the
structuring of the "proliferated world."
A/NIO AL
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SECRET
Exe.^utive Registy
82-1292
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
FROM: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: How to Live in a Proliferated World
1. Out of today's luncheon with Secretary Shultz came the idea that
we. should undertake an assessment-of How. to Live in a Proliferated.World--
what would it be like, and what would our security requirements and options
be in a world in which Argentina, Pakistan, South Korea, South Africa, India,
Israel and whomever else you want to have a nuclear weapon. This would
probably include questions of delivery systems, the likelihood of and the
scenarios by which a further multiplicity of nuclear countries could
develop, given the prospect that some countries will have the incentive
to knock out its neighbor's nuclear capabilities before they are allowed
to mature,. etc.
-- 2. Would you give some thought and consult around as you think
appropriate so that we can talk about the desirability of this on my return
and how to proceed.
William J. Casey
SECRET
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