A REPORT BY GARY CROCKER, US STATE DEPARTMENT, ON THE FINDINGS AND ASSESSMENT ON THE US EVIDENCE ON YELLOW RAIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87R00029R000400810016-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 12, 2010
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: April 16, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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? CONFIDENTIAL -
CONFERENCE ON "YELLOW RAIN" SPONSORED BY
THE PROGRAM IN SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND SOCIETY,
MIT; THE INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS,
AND THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF ARTS AND SCIENCES
CAMBRIDGE, MASS., April 15-16, 1983
SUBJECT: A report by Gary Crocker, US State Department, on the
findings and assessments on the US evidence on "Yellow
Rain"
SUMMARY:
The conference was chaired by Professor Carl Kaysen from MIT
and included US and foreign experts on chemistry, biology, botany,
anthropology, toxicology, chemical warfare, biochemistry, medicine,
agriculture, pathology, paleobiology and international law. A list
of participants is attached. After opening presentations by Dr.
Rosen of Rutgers University on sample analysis and my own short
outline of the analytical framework involved, Professor Messelson
of Harvard presented his hyppthesis and supporting evidence that
the presence of mycotoxins in physical and biological samples was
due to natural occurence, not chemical warfare. Most of the work
of the conference focused on the US evidence of Vietnamese use of
toxins in Southeast Asia, with almost no attention paid to the
evidence from Afghanistan. Study groups reported on their findings
at the final session. The following general conclusions were
reached, although many questions, including Professor Messelson's
hypothesis,went unanswered and were not debated:
--Some type of chemical weapons have been used in Southeast
Asia, but it is not clear that toxins have been used.
--People have been killed or made ill, but the US evidence
that. Vietnamese use of toxins is the cause is not conclusive.
State Dept. review completed
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--The US government has made the CW use issue a major foreign
policy initiative, but the resources devoted to collection and
analysis are minimal. More systematic interviews by qualified
interogators and physicians are needed in Thailand and Pakistan,
and a new program is needed to investigate the Erritrean charges of
Ethiopian use of chemical weapons.
--Samples, physical and biological, need to be analyzed in
additional laboratories in the US and other countriesw
--The Soviet explanations for the presence of mycotoxins in
Southeast Asia are scientifically unsound and the Vietnamese claims
about the damage done by Agent Orange to humans and vegetation are
equally unfounded.
--A low percentage of the samples collected by the US contain
toxin and other countries have not been able to confirm the US
analysis. More control samples are needed to establish base line
data on the natural occurence of mycotoxins in tropical climates.
--There was a difference of opinion over the effectiveness of
trichothecene toxins as chemical warfare agents. The Norwegian
scientist, Fonnum, presented a case for their effectiveness.
--A number of participants, in particular Markovich from France,
suggested that WHO, ICRC, and the UN should be requested assist in
conducting epidemiological studies. Eygptian General Ezz and others
pointed out that these organizations had not been willing to
participate in any manner.
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Discussion: This was a very well organized conference with the
majority of the participants objectively interested in learning
more about the US evidence. Unfortunately, Dr. Mirocha could not
attend and there was no presentation of the US scientific and
technical evidence. There was a useful exchange of information
from the variety of experts present, but overall that exchange
raised more questions than answers.
In no way did Professor Messelson succeed in orchestrating
this conference in order to gain acceptability for his views. It
has become more clear in the past few months that Messelson is
working in a very systematic manner to discredit every f.acit.of
the US case. Although he stated that he has always believed some
type of chemical warfare wasp foing on in these countries, he has
privately told his numerous cronies that only riot control agents
are being used. Messelson had been in contact with everyone I
talked to at the conference. He claims to be playing the devil's
advocate in order to bring about more rigorous scientific investigations,
but his hypotheses has been widely spread in this country and in
Europe,causing damage to the US position. For example, Markovich
(Messelson)
told the French government that the leading US expert on CWilhad
uncovered new evidence that disproved the US statements on toxin use.
In part, this has lead the French government to move slowly on
releasing their evidence. His latest effort is to attack the credibility
of Dr. Zikria of Colombia Medical Center who examined victims in
Pakistan. At the conference, he indirectly questioned Dr. Mirocha's
techniques by. saying that Dr. Rosen appeared to have a better
method of analysis.
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The Chairman of the conference intends to distribute a
transcript to all participants and invited everyone to provide
comments, changes and any additional papers they felt would be useful.
This gives the US government an opportunity to respond to unanswered
questions or send papers to the participants. The conference was
closed to the media, but we can expect various distorted versions
of what took place to surface in the media and elsewhere. Messelson's
final remark was that he was now more convinced that his hypothesis,
might be valid. Julian Perry Robinson from Sussex University, a
the
long time associate of Messelson's, helped prepard"evidence" for
Messelson's.presentation. Markovich can be expected to report his
version of the conference to the French government.
The statements of the Thai researcher, Dr. Samaniya, were used
by Messelson to support his hypothesis that the occurence of yellow
spots on leaves is a natural phenomena. She stated that she had
found yellow spots on leaves collected in Bangkok and had only found
pollin in samples collected from the February 19 attack on a Thai
village. Our interview with Samaniya in Washington revealed a much
different story than what was apparent at the conference.
Dr. Sarver from the US Army Chemical Systems Lab and I,with
the help of Amos Townsend, Dr. Bernard Wagner, Dr. Rosen, Peter
Ashton, the Canadians Lt Col Humphries and Dr.Sdhiefer, the Norwegian
Dr. Fonnum and several of the anthropologists1were able to clear
up a number of confusing issues and counter some of Messelson's
weak points. Informal discussions indicated that the majority of
the participants are convinced by the US evidence, but they believe
we have not made a persuasive public case and have not provided the
scientific community the background information to make a judgement.
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