AMBASSADOR SALGO'S COMMENT ON M/H TO SNIE 12.7-83: ROMANIA: THE OUTLOOK FOR CEAUSESCU

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87R00529R000100040016-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 16, 2011
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: December 13, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
NIC No. 06105-85
13 December 1985
FROM: George Kolt
National Intelligence Officer for Europe
SUBJECT: Ambassador Salgo's Comment on M/H to SNIE 12.7-83:
Romania: The Outlook for Ceausescu
1. I agree with Ambassador Salgo's comment that the Hungarian
minority is an important problem in Romania. The reason we did not
mention it in this M/H is that there has been no essential change in the
situation since we discussed it in our original SNIE in 1983 and in the
previous M/H in March 1985. (I don't agree with the Ambassador's
characterization of the Hungarians and Germans being well above the
native Romanians in culture and ability.)
2. The essence of the problem is that both of these groups are under
pressure to assimilate and can compare their miserable lot with the
happier fate of their brethren in Hungary and West Germany respectively.
In addition, as the Ambassador points out, the Hungarians are grouped
together in Transylvania, have contacts in Hungary, and are particularly
distrusted by the regime. But they are probably only slightly more
downtrodden than the rest of the population and have not engaged in
active opposition, in contrast to the ethnic Romanians in the Jiu Valley
a few years ago.
3. Ironically the plight of the Hungarians in Romania has become a
greater problem for the Hungarian than for the Romanian regime. Kadar
has felt pressure from his people to intercede on behalf of the
Hungarians in Romania, but has been inhibited by the taboo against openly
criticizing another Warsaw Pact state and by the fact that Transylvania
last became part of Romania by Soviet fiat in 1945.
We are discussing the issue in th
Hungarian estimate on which we are currently working.
George Kolt
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NIC No. 06105-85
13 December 1985
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: George Kolt
National Intelligence Officer for Europe
SUBJECT: Ambassador Salgo's Comment on M/H to SNIE 12.7-83:
Romania: The Outlook for Ceausescu
Distribution:
1 - DC I
1 - DDCI
1 - Ex.Director
1 - ER
1 - C/NIC
1 - VC/NIC
1 - SRP
1 - D/EURA
1 - EURA/E
2 - SOVA/RIG/EA/P/
1 - A/NIO/EUR
1 - NIO/EUR chrono
1 - NIO/EUR development
NIO/GKOLT/sb1F---113DEC85
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11 December 1985
Executive Registry
85- -4868
X870
MEMORANDUM FOR: National Intelligence Officer for Western Europe
FROM: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: SNIE 12.7-83 - Romania: The Outlook for Ceausescu
I had Nicholas Salgo, our Ambassador to Hungary, read the Estimate
on Romania. He thinks it well done and had only to suggest one thing it
failed to do which is to deal with a problem stemming from the nationalist
minorities in Romania. There are 2 million Hungarians and about one-half
million Germans who are the lawyers, the doctors, the traders, the
intellectuals in culture and ability. They are well above the native
Romanians. The economic situation has ground them down to a point where
they are living less well than the rank and file of the native Romanians.
This has created great agitation because of their influence in the country
and particularly because they live near the border and are in contact with
the large Hungarian population over the border.
Salgo seemed to think this was an important element in the Romanian
situation so for whatever it is worth I pass it on.
William J. Casey
Attachment:
Draft Fiemorandum of SNIE 12.7-83
cICRFT
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ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET
SUBJECT: (Optional)
Amb.Salgo's Comment on M/H to SNIE 12.7-83: Romania: The Outlook for Ceausescu
FROM: George Kolt EXTENSION NO.
NIO for EUROPE NIC No. 06105-85
DATE
13 December 1985
TO: (Officer designation, room number, and
building)
DATE
OFFICER'S
COMMENTS (Number each comment to show from whom
RECEIVED
FORWARDED
INITIALS
to whom. Draw a line across column after each comment.)
1.
VC/NIC
(has
copy)
2.
C/NIC
(has
copy)
3.
DDI Reg.
4.
ER
16 DEC
1995
6.
f L
985
7.
DDCI
8.
9.
DCI
198S
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
*
15.
DCI
'
EXEC
REG
FORM 610 USE PREVIOUS
1-79 EDITIONS
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