DCI/NIO REGIONAL MEETING -- 19 MARCH 1986

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87R00529R000100050021-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 16, 2011
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: March 18, 1986
• Content Type: MISC

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/18: CIA-RDP87R00529R000100050021-6
SEGRETMK-ORN
NIO/EUROPE
18 March 1986
DC,I/NIO Regional Meeting -- 19 March 1986
European Elections
We have entered an election period in Europe and concomitant
uncertainties for U.S. policymaking.
The recent elections in France, Spain and Portugal have
simultaneously confirmed the basic foreign policy orientation of the
governments and produced some alterations that will complicate US policy:
-- In France political leaders will be as preoccupied with
positioning themselves for the next election--either the
Presidential one in 1988 or a likely Parliamentary one before
then--as with policymaking.
-- In Spain he electorate did not so much vote for NATO as against
the consequences of issuing a major international and domestic
policy challenge to a generally popular government. But in the
process of getting the Socialist rank-and-file to vote for NATO,
Gonzalez made some promises--for instances on the US military
presence--'and some enemies, actions which will make it harder
for him to govern, at least for a while.
-- In Portugal the election of Soares was the best outcome the US
could hope but the current honeymoon between Soaves and
Prime Minister Cavaco Silva is likely to last only until the
parties of these two men are ready for another round of
Parliamentary elections. Further the gradual reorientation of
Portugal toward Western Europe means that we are likely to face
a more demanding, and in some cases, uncooperative ally.
In January 1987 a federal election will be held in Germany and the
revival of the Flick affair is a joker that could spoil the CSU/CDU/FDP's
otherwise good prospects for reelection. The possibility of neither the
current coalition nor the SPD garnering a majority has grown--along with
the attendant risk that the Greens might become the potential swing vote
in Parliament. In,any event, Kohl
is like Ty to-face
intensified infighting among his unruly lieutenants and coalition members
who will be looking to the post-Kohl era.
Within the next year, elections are also possible in Italy and the UK:
-- In It al the Achille Lauro affair seems to have been the
cats yst for ending the unusual government stability that had
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characterized Italy for the previous two years. All Italian
politicians, but especially coalition members, are now keying
their moves to the possibility of an election later this year
and, if not then, in 1987.
-- In the UK an election need not be held until 1988, but the
governing (Tories may well risk one earlier if they sense a
moment where they could minimize their almost certain losses.
Current trends, however, suggest that no party is likely to
emerge with a majority in the next election. Further,
conservative leaders will have to consider whether Mrs. Thatcher
should lead them into the next election. Her loss of popularity
does not make it easier for her to govern.
While all the foregoing is not likely to produce any dramatic changes
in US-European relations, it does suggest that the US may be dealing with
a series of weaker governments--governments less able to make decisions
and more affected by political weakness on the part of other governments
in Europe (for instance, a weak German Chancellor and a weaker French
President would be less able to guide and help a more vulnerable Gonzalez
as he tries to integrate Spain into the European community). What all
this adds up to is an Atlantic Alliance that, for a while at least, will
be organically weaker than it has been for the past few years.
SECRET/NOFORN
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/18: CIA-RDP87R00529R000100050021-6