HUNGARIAN ESTIMATE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87R00529R000100050064-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 13, 2011
• Sequence Number: 64
• Publication Date: January 24, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/18: CIA-RDP87R00529R000100050064-9
24 January 1986
NOTE FOR: Hal Ford
Vice Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: George Kolt
National Intelligence Officer for Europe
SUBJECT: Hungarian Estimate
kg
1. Since you last saw this estimate we have:
Revised the Key Judgments to make them more punchy (Kate,
Dennis and I all found your proposed Key Judgments too
stark -- which did not impede us from borrowing heavily
from them in order to come up with something which I think
will be acceptable to both you and us).
Placed the major discussion of the succession under
variables (paras 47-50).
Warned, in paragraph 57, that our already pessimistic
scenario may still be too optimistic. At the same time we
have not labeled this an alternative scenario because we
believe the chances of this happening of really minimal and
having alternative scenarios I and II would thus amount to
the creation of an artifical sandwich.
Revised paragraphs 64 to 66 to treat more fully the
complexity of Hungary's evolution for Washington and Moscow.
George Kolt
Distribution:
1 - VC/NIC/Ford
1 - VC/NIC/Fuller
1 - NIO/EUR chrono w/o
1 - NI0/EUR develop
NIO/EUR/GKOLT/sbl24JAN86
STAT
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/18: CIA-RDP87R00529R000100050064-9