SNIE 27.1-86: THE FRAGMENTATION OF PORTUGUESE POLITICS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (FAST-TRACK)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87R00529R000100050077-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 13, 2011
• Sequence Number: 77
• Publication Date: January 13, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/18: CIA-RDP87R00529R000100050077-5
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
NIC No. 00167-86/2
13 January 1986
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: George Kolt
National Intelligence Officer for Europe
SUBJECT: SNIE 27.1-86: The Fragmentation of Portuguese Politics
and the Presidential ection ast- rac
1. Thanks to the good work of of DDI/EURA STAT
we completed the draft over the weekend and are on schedule for
presentation to the NFIB on Thursday, 16 January.
2. We agree with the SRP's suggestion in paragraph 2c of their
memo. We shall insert a schematic showing the voting and Parliamentary
strengths of the various parties arranged from left to right, and the two
most recent Parliamentary elections. We shall also add thumbnail
biographies and photos of the principal political actors. We disagree,
however, with other SRP suggestions. To go into the details recommended
in paragraph 2b (more than we now have on the powers of the President in
our paragraph 2) and in paragraph 3 of their memo (more on "debt, trade,
terrorist controls, access, transit, and base rights") would give
policymakers more than they want to know right now while diluting and
most likely delaying the information they need urgently. For interested
readers, however, we shall add a reference to the recently published IA
on Portugal: Prospects for Increased Political Uncertainty (January
1986 which goes into some of the areas discussed by the RP. Because we
want to maintain the SNIE roughly within current parameters we also
believe that it does not need a Key Judgments section: The SNIE as
currently written is already shorter than the Key Judgments of most SNIEs.
3. I shall begin. coordinating the text at the representative level
at 0900, Tuesday, 14 January and plan to have the revised text to you on
15 January.
Attachment:
Draft F-T SNIE 27.1-86
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 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/18: CIA-RDP87R00529R000100050077-5
NIC No. 00167-86/2
13 January 1986
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: George Kolt
National Intelligence Officer for Europe
SUBJECT: SNIE 27.1-86: The Fragmentation of Portuguese Politics
and the Presidential Election (Fast-Track)
Distribution:
1 - DC I
1 - DDCI
1 - EX.Dir
1 - ER
1 - C/NIC
1 - ADDI
1 - VC/NIC/Ford
1 - VC/NIC/Fuller
1 - NIC/PO
1 - SRP
1 - DDI/EURA
1 - A/NIO/EUR
1 - NIO/EUR chrono
1 - NIO/EUR develo ment
NIO/EUR/GKOLT/sb1,13JAN86
SECRET/NOFORN
STAT
STAT
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SECRET
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
NIC-00199-86
13 January 1986
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Chairman, National Intelligence Council
NIO for Europe
Senior Review Panel Comments on Draft
SNIE 27.2-86: The Fragmentation of
Portu uese Politics and the Presidential
Election (Fast-Track), dtd 12 Jan 1986
1. The Panel's quick reaction to the draft is that it
usefully conveys three messages: (a).Portuguese politics are in
a newly fluid state; (b) US-Portuguese ties will on balance
probably remain good; (c) the conduct of our relations will be
more troublesome in the period ahead.
2. We appreciate the speed, and applaud the brevity, with
which the paper has been prepared. But we think the paper would
be improved if:
a. a brief Key Judgments section were included;
b. a summary box clarified the Portuguese political
system for the benefit of non-specialists--i.e., presidential
term, something more on his powers, and some amplification of
the statement that he "will likely be a key player in the
next parliamentary election" (page 3, paragraph 4);
c. a schematic on Portugal's parties: orientation,
stand on major issues, present Parliamentary seats, previous
voting strengths, and thumbnail biographies of the
candidates.
3. Finally, in the concluding section on "Implications for
the United States" and elsewhere, the terms "American-oriented"
Signers ??,. ~^
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and "European-oriented" seem to us a bit ambiguous. Could these
be supplemented by more specific application to our major
interests and problems in Portugal--debt, trade, terrorist
controls, access, transit, and base rights?
cc: VC/NIC (Mr. Ford)
VC/NIC (Mr. Fuller)
ODCI/SRP:thelma
Distribution:
1 - Ea Addressee
1 - VC/NIC (Mr. Ford)
1 - VC/NIC (Mr. Fuller)
1 - SRP File
1 - SRPChrono
1 - PO/NIC
1 - ER
1 - SRP
1 - SRP
STAT
STAT
STAT
2
CFrP T
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