MEETING WITH EURA AND OGI ANALYSTS TO DISCUSS TRIAL OF PAPAL ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87R00529R000200140011-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 23, 2010
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: March 2, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/23: CIA-RDP87R00529R000200140011-6
40
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC No. 01408-84
2 March 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
Assistant National Intelligence Officer for Western Europe
SUBJECT: Meeting with EURA and OGI Analysts to Discuss Trial of Papal
Assassination Attempt
1. On 2 March, I met with DDI analysts
the status of the Italian case against Bulgarian, Sergey Antonov,
accused by Mehmet All Agca of aiding him in attempting to kill the
Pope. The following summarizes the principal points discussed. OGI's
next issue of the Terrorism Review will cover much of this topic in
greater detail.
2. Pendin Decisions. Two major decisions are yet to be made by
Italian aut orities:
-- First, whether Antonov, resentl under house arrest,
.should be returned to jail. The chief magistrate--wile
reading the massive legal brief on the case--recommended
that he be returned to jail in January, but the time has
elapsed for a decision to be made concerning his appeal
and he still remains under house arrest.
-- Second, whether a formal indictment will be handed
down. Only the magistrates and the Interior Minister
have access to the 50,000-page legal document that lays
out the evidence against Antonov; it has been almost a
year and a half since he has been apprehended, and still
there is wrangling within the Italian bureaucracy over
whether a strong case can be made against him.
3. The Evidence. Many Italian officials apparently do not
believe there is anything beyond the Agca testimony linking Antonov
directly to the Papal assassination plot. CIA analysts do not know
what is in the brief, whether it contains more than circumstantial
SECRET
0
CL BY SIGNER
DECL OADR
DERV MULTIPLE
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/23: CIA-RDP87R00529R000200140011-6
25X1
25X1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/23: CIA-RDP87R00529R000200140011-6
46
?
evidence that has come to light so far is circumstantial, showing
connections between Agca and Bulgarian intelligence services dating
back to the 1970s, and perhaps showing Antonov's dealings with Agca on
subjects not directly bearing on the Pope's shooting.
4. Italian Politics. The snail's pace of the investigation is
partly attributable to the slow Italian legal system and the
internecine conflicts within the Italian bureacracy. The Italian
magistrates dealing with the case want to bring it to trial, believing
that not to do so would sully the legal system's image. Magistrate
Martella apparently intends to press the case, to the chagrin of
Foreign Ministry officials who would like to see the case dropped so
that bilateral relations with Bulgaria could get back on a normal
footing. Recently, Sofia and Rome have announced that they are naming
new ambassadors
and the Foreign Ministry is also
interested in an exchange of two Italians in Bulgarian jails, accused
of spying.
Agca's credibility has also been
questioned because of slander charges lodged against him for his
statements against Antonov on alleged assassination attempts against
Lech Walesa.
5. Likely Outcome. Analysts believe that there will probably be
a trial, although not as soon as some sources are suggesting.
However, it is by no means clear that the trial of Antonov will be
focused on his connection with the Papal assassination attempt,
because of the possible lack of evidence. However, the Italians might
be able to convict Antonov of espionage--for which there is good
evidence of his activities as a military intelligence officer. This
route could raise some tricky questions about the extent of East
European espionage within Italy and the operation of Italian security
services. A good indication of how fast the Italians might move on
the indictment would be when and whether they move to place Antonov
back in jail.
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
-2-
CFr.RFT
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/23: CIA-RDP87R00529R000200140011-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/23: CIA-RDP87R00529R000200140011-6
?
NIC No. 91480-84
2 March 1984
Assistant National Intelligence Officer for Western Europe
SUBJECT: Meeting with EURA and OGI Analysts to Discuss Trial of Papal
Assassination Attempt
Distribution:
1 - VC/NIC-HM
1 - NIO/USSR-EE
1 - NIO/CT
1 - NIO/AL/Ford
1 - NIO/WE
1 - NIC/AG/Kane
1 - NIO/WE chrono
1 - NIO/WE subst.
1 - DDI Reg.
A/NIO/WE
(2MAR84)
1 - EURA/EE
1 - EURA/WE
1 - OGI/Ter
SECRET
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/23: CIA-RDP87R00529R000200140011-6