FORECAST AND WARNING REPORT FOR WESTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87R00529R000300300046-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 6, 2011
• Sequence Number: 46
• Publication Date: January 20, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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D
The Director of Central Intelligence
Wuhh1t, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC No. 00518-84/1
20 January 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
FROM : Milton Kovner
National Intelligence Officer for Western Europe
butwtL t Forecast and Warning Report for Western Europe
1. Attached is My report to the DCI based on our meeting held 18
January 1984. If there are any significant amendments or additions you
would wish to make, please let me know. (U)
2. Next month's warning meeting will be on 22 February 1984 at 1000
in room 7-E-62 Headquarters. Please have clearances passed and
call with names of the attendees by the opening 25X1
of business on 21 February 1984. (U)
3. I also encourage you. to phone in suggestions for the agenda and
proposals to make opening presentations. It would be helpful to have
your comments for the next meeting by Monday, 13 February 1984. (U)
Milton Kovner
Attachment
NIC 00518-84
This document is UNCLASSIFIED
when separated from attachment.
CL BY SIGNER
DECL OADR
DERV Multiple
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The Director of Central lntdligenoe
wu6ingtoo, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC No. 00518-84
20 January 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH : National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT : Monthly Forecast and Warning Meeting
I. Europe's Economy: A Medium-term Forecast
1. Economic Outlook. Most analysts believe that European economic
growth in the coming year will be lackluster compared to the US
recovery, and not large enough to stem high unemployment. Some believe
that the modest upswing foreseen for European economies this year could
in fact, tempt governments to put off politically difficult structural
adjustments that will be necessary for longer-term recovery. On the
positive side, projected levels of growth will range from 2 1/2 percent
for West Germany and Great Britain to 0-1 percent for France and Italy;
inflation will be down from last year, ranging from 3 percent in the
FRG, 7-9 percent in France and Britain, and 12 percent in Italy.
However, sources for continuing economic pessimism in Europe remain:
high unemployment, few cutbacks in the expensive welfare system, costly
new-labor demands in some countries, and the rising possibility of labor
strife.
2. EC and the French President. Community analysts agree that the
E
uropean Community faces a major crisis this year in resolving its
differences on EC budget and agricultural policies. Most analysts
believe that the EC, under French leadership, will marshall the
political will to reach compromises needed to avert the bankruptcy of
the Common Agricultural Policy and to limit national budget
contributions that discriminate against the British and West Germans.
"
"
These analysts point to the
crisis
atmosphere and the Mitterrand
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government's renewed commitment to Europe as the essential ingredients
for reaching economic compromises acceptable to all parties. However,
other analysts emphasize that the necessary political consensus on EC
budget and agricultural reforms will be difficult to construct in time
for the March EC summit; they note that Paris has only begun its
bilateral talks with EC partners and has not announced any new
initiatives to resolve the differences revealed at the December Athens
meeting. Spain's accession rides on the Community's ability to put its
economic house in order this year, and both Madrid and Paris may expect
the United States to accept EC import restrictions in order to
facilitate Spain's accession. This issue will be dealt with in the
forthcoming NIE on Spain, NATO and Europe.
II. European Attitudes toward Central America
3. Role of the SI. The official views of the Socialist
International have not moderated much over the past few months, and
Central America remains the area of greatest ideological disagreement
between the SI and the United States. The tacit agreement under Willy
Brandt's leadership -- to allow non-European members to take the lead in
Third World issues while European countries dominate the arms control
and security field -- will tend to perpetuate an anti-US tone to SI
pronouncements on Central America. Analysts do not expect any great
change in the organization's posture, even though there is speculation
that Willy Brandt may step down as early as next year, since possible
successors are still likely to defer to Latin American views on Central
America. Within their national political contexts, however, West
European Socialist leaders are behaving more moderately than suggested
by official SI statements. The revelation of Cuban manipulation of SI
activities in the Caribbean has recently caused internal strife among
members. Privately, some West European Socialist leaders have
acknowledged their growing disenchantment with Nicaragua.
5. Government Views on Central America. Recent State reporting has
confirmed that there has, been some moderation in official criticism of
US policies in the region -- owing in part to high level US visits
.(Bush, Dam, Stone, etc.) and Department efforts to explain Washington's
views. Also, Central America remains essentially a secondary concern to
most West Europeans, compared to INF, US-Soviet relations, and the
general East-West dialogue. Analysts note, however, that many Europeans
still see the US supporting more rightist elements in Central America,
not safeguarding human rights, and using heavy pressure on Nicaragua
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that could harden Managua's attitude toward the West. West Europeans
have always wanted to believe that moderate elements existed within the
Sandinista directorate, but some analysts believe that there has been
substantial progress in weaning them from this view -- e.g., Italian,
Portuguese, and Spanish disenchantment has grown and recent reporting
suggests that the West German SPD will soon consider a paper that warns
of Communist domination of the Nicaraguan leadership.
III.Watching Briefs: Turkey
6. Turkey and the Council of Europe (CDE). A long festering
confrontation between Ankara and the Council -- over the seating of a
Turkish parlimentary delegation to the European Assembly -- could occur
this month. The COE has proposed that Ankara not send a delegation in
exchange for the Council deferring action on Turkish membership until
May. Most analysts believe that President Ozal will ultimately accept
the compromise, provided there is sufficient assurance that Turkish
credentials will be accepted then. Barring such assurances, Ozal
appears inclined to force the issue.
7. Europe and the MNF. Analysts agree that European participants
in the MNF are looking for ways to end their involvement in Lebanon,
although Paris and Rome have made only limited reductions thus far. The
Italians and the French appear ready ultimately to let the UN take their
places -- if the French can convince the Soviets, and the Syrians, to
accede to this approach. European allies have become more concerned
about a sudden change in the US MNF posture that could catch them by
surprise. Europeans will view any US redeployment that appears to
reduce American risks relative to theirs -- e.g., partial or complete
redeployment off-shore -- as a step toward US withdrawal which could, in
turn, precipitate Italian and French withdrawals.
Milton Kovner
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