COMMENT ON DCI S MEMO, "ESTIMATES"

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00472R000100050055-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 15, 2008
• Sequence Number: 55
• Publication Date: May 25, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Cr n n r-r
Approved For Release 2008/01/15: CIA-RDP87T00472R000100050055-0
25 May 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
FROM : Hal Ford
SUBJECT: Comment on DCI's Memo, "Estimates"
1. Welcome his interest; invite him to ongoing, periodic discussion
of these questions with the NIC--occasionally in plenary with the NIO's.
Also, I agree with Dave Gries' point about estimates as Cadillacs.
2. Suggest to DCI that in response to PFIAB (or whomever) he might
best stress not the gaps, but the very positive aspects of estimates and
NIC policy support of the present and the past year or so--the best, most
relevant, etc., which has existed to date.
3. There have always been gaps, and of necessity there will continue
to be. There is only so much time and so many people. A prime function of
the NIC (and past NIC's) has been to help the DCI pursue truly priority
items. That, of course, means that something has to give.
4. Here the record of the estimates has been an excellent one,
especially of late. There are no key issues which have been left bare.
Those subjects not treated have been secondary (e.g., Argentina prior to
Falklands), or not very relevant to today's world (e.g., International
Communism). The very relevant subject of nuclear proliferation, for
example, has been treated extensively in the recent past and at present.
5. Remind the DCI that the NIE's are not the whole production show
(per this a.m.'s discussion).
6. Inform the DCI that years ago the AG numbered 25-30; Nowadays we
do what we can with our present 10-person AG. The record with respect to
non-NIC drafters continues to be very much a hit-or-miss proposition.
There simply has to be a NIC-type staff, a batch of broad-guaged, very able
officers who are sensitive to policy consumer interests, and who can in
quick time conceive, write, check, and help manage the production of
estimative materials. This can best be done--as has been demonstrated to
the DCI--by having our own stable of type NIC
officers. We can't take our chances, especially in important, fast-track
situations, on ma be getting the borrowed services of an outside drafter
who may or may not be able to produce the type and quality of work we need.
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 cGrorT
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7. Yes an estimate on Argentina after Falklands is an obvious
must. 25X1
8. Syria, etc.--as discussed--is being treated in projects just
finished or underway.
9. Invite more what-if SNIEs from the policymakers
cc: VC/NIC
EXO/NIC
AG
NIC
/
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Approved For Release 2008/01/15: CIA-RDP87T00472R000100050055-0