HIGHLIGHTS OF MEETING ON NIE 11-12 POST-MORTEM AND FOLLOW-ON

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00495R000600540013-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 18, 2009
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: April 11, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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11 April 1984
SUBJECT: Highlights of Meeting on NIE 11-12 Post-Mortem and Follow-on
1. Meeting was held as scheduled on 16 March 1984. Agenda and
attendance list are attached. Unfortunately, the following persons were
unable to attend:
a. principal drafter of NIE 11-12-83 whose
perspective is critical to developing the concept and terms of reference
for the follow-on Estimate.
h. Bert Smith, Army representative had visited with Julian Nall and
on 15 March and had expressed general agreement with and
support for our planned approach.
c. Max Koontz, Navy representative met with later in the
day and discussed the meeting. His comments are included in the meeting
summary.
2. A short summary of analytical and data gaps identified in
NIE 11-12-83 and a preliminary schedule for the follow-on Estimate were
distributed (attached).
3. The tone of the meeting was very positive. Without exception,
comments addressed what might be done to produce a better follow-on Estimate
and little time was spent on recriminations over the last Estimate.
4. TTAC was represented and it was recognized that their support for and
participation in the follow-on is essential if the significant technology
transfer analytical gaps in NIE 11-12-83 are to be ameliorated in the follow-
on.
5. Julian Nall reviewed the results of discussions he has had with
consumers of the Estimate with regard to gaps and critical technologies.
Julian mentioned the "DeLauer memorandum" which contained favorable comments
on NIE 11-12-83 and recommendations for the follow-on which we will pursue
(attached). He. also mentioned his wish to expand R&D support and his plans to
form an advisory group at the outset (rather than at the end) of the NIE
process. Plans to shorten the time to prepare the Follow-on Estimate, to
reduce its volume, and to divide the support analytical effort throughout the
Community were described.
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6. The following summarizes the major points of discussion:
a. Follow-on planning must integrate the Estim e r duction with
on-going analysis to the maximum extent possible Integration
appears feasible since both current ion plans
reflect, closely NIE 11-12-83 gaps The level of
preparation is extremely important, however; what is doable and who is
going to do it must be decided at an early stage The need
for greater SOVA involvement was noted 0 The importance of early
planning was emphasized in light of the heavy NIE preparation load in the
second half of 1984 and the need to coordinate 11-12 with other
Estimates, especially NIE 11-3/8 0 Using gaps as working agenda
and generating collection and analysis initiatives for each was
recommended . The need for a detailed firm and early TOR was
stressed . It was noted that response to
the TOR wou likely be passive unless there were formal tasking,
deadlines, etc. associated with it DIA was "refocussing"
production priorities now and early decisions on concentration areas for
the follow-on could be accommodated in their tannin Increased
reliance on Service S&T Centers was suggested
b. Divergence of annexes C and D was pointed out as a problem
needing to be solved in the follow-on Several
factors were noted as contributing to the divergence: technologists are
not generally knowledgeable of systems requirements 0 even when
considering technologies in a systems context technologists understood
current rather than future developments effective communications
between technologists and systems analysts was lacking
Winnowing technologies through a systems filter during the planning
process was, offered as an approach to bring the areas into convergence
While needing to limit the number of technologies
considered: SDI, AI and Stealth must be addressed
c. The scope of the Estimate needs to be clarified (e.g., should the
Estimate address the kinds of systems the Soviets would develop in the
future?) Also, WSSIC support was recommended in defining future Soviet
military requirements Other comments made concerning improved
scoping and definition for t e follow-on Estimate included:
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-- A conceptual framework was needed for addressing "technology
surprise"
-- Ouantitative
approaches n
eeded to assess technology
developments
-- Parametric forecasts and quantifying technology thresholds
should he considered
-- Developing measures-of-effectiveness for technology and
addressing questions of "success" were recommended
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-- Need to investigate nature of potential Soviet responses to
Western military technology developments
-- Guard against establishing different technical bases for
different applications of similar technologies
-- Ad hoc studies on system/technology linkages, role and impact
of technology transfer and the efficacy of the R&D process
were recommended as precursors to drafting the follow-on
d. Unevenness of contributions to NIE 11-12-83 (both quantity and
quality) was discussed. The possibility of making greater use of working
(instead of coordinated) papers in drafting the follow-on Estimate was
raised.
e. SOYA, volunteered help with the ad hoc study on role
of R&D process in Soviet military technology and provided list (attached)
of newly initiated analysis likely to yield results of value to the
follow-on.
7. The meeting revealed a general consensus on the approach to the
follow-on Estimate indicating no further post mortem discussions are needed.
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~.UI 1 U6 t l1i1 , tri o ~% P
(SAA)
THE UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Honorable William Casey
Director
Central Intelligence
Washington, D. C. 20505
Execuiva FL-,is r=y
~f - yo
2 3 JANv 1984
Dear Bill:
I've reviewed the second issue of the National Intelligence
Estimate (NIE 11-12-83), "Prospects for Soviet Military Technology
and R&D (U)," which your staff prepared at my request. It is an
excellent follow-up to-the initial 1980 effort. and
Julian Nall briefed me on the summary and key judgments of the
estimate in late December, and Julian mentioned that he is already
planning for the follow-on estimate. I know that many people in
the Intelligence Community worked hard to make this effort
successful. They deserve to be complimented on an important job
well done.
Because I was the original sponsor of this estimate, Julian
suggested that my views on the follow-on effort might be helpful
in planning the 1985 effort. I have included them in the
attached page. I will be happy to help in any way I can to
provide DoD expertise in support of NIE 11-12.
Thank you for your excellent effort. Please express my
appreciation to the intelligence people who made this such a
valuable product.
Sincerely,
Attachment (C)
cc: Director,, DIA
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