BRIEFING OF ADMIRAL MOTT AND EDWARD NOBLE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00759R000100050001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 24, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 30, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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SECRET
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Executive Secretary
FROM:
Assistant NIO for Economics
NIC-02235-85
30 April 1985
SUBJECT: Briefing of Admiral Mott and Edward Noble
1. At the request of the DCI, Admiral Mott and Edward Noble were
briefed on 23 April on Soviet synthetic fuels activities and development
2. The briefers indicated that:
o Moscow is still weighing several alternatives for using
Kansk-Achinsk coal, but that development of these reserves are
accorded a relatively low priority compared to gas and oil.
o The Soviets are still at very early stages of developing
synthetic fuels technologies for using these deposits.
3. For your information, Noble wanted the briefing to obtain
ammunition for use before Congress in defending the budget for the
Synthetic Fuels Corporation. Summaries of articles relating to Soviet
testimony.
Attachments:
1. Letter to Edward Noble including
Unclassified Articles on Soviet
Synfuel s
2. DCI request for NIC Briefing of
Mott and Noble
3. SOV4 Paper on Soviet Synfuels
SECRET
CL BY SIGNER
DECL OADR
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SECRET
NIC-02235-85
30 April 1985
SUBJECT: Briefing of Admiral Mott and Edward Noble
UCI/NIC/A/NIO/Econ~
Dist:
Orig - ExSec
1 - ER
1 - DDI Reg
,,.2' - A/NI0/Econ
30 Apr 85)I 225X1
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The Director of Central l.htelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
30 April 1985
National Intelligence Council
Edward Noble
Chairman, Synthetic Fuels Corporation
2121 K Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20586
Dear Mr. Noble:
Enclosed per your request is a series of unclassified notes
on current synthetic fuels plans in the USSR. If you have any
questions, call me
Assistant National Intelligence Officer
for Economics
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UNCLASSIFIED
Plans and Feasibility
The long-term Energy Program announced in 1984 states that
the USSR plans by 1990 to develop and perfect technology for
production of synthetic fuels from gas, coal, and oil shale.
After 1990 the USSR plans to construct industrial enterprises for
the production of synthetic liquid fuels in the Kansk-Achinsk
coal basin. Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta, No. 12, March 1984, pp. 11-
14.
At the April 1983 Plenum of the Central Committee of
Communist Party of the Ukraine, the necessity for organizing the
production of liquid fuels was noted. Resources of the Ukrainian
republic for research and design work will reportedly be made
available on such scale that the first commercial demonstration
plants can be built during the 1990s. Pravda Ukrainy, 30 October
1983, p. 2.
Statement by Director of USSR Institute of Fossil Fuels:
"We are already committed to thinking about tommorrow now.
Reserves of oil are not infinite. And the size of our coal
deposits are such that they are sufficient for 100 years. In
regard to cost, according to the projections of economists, the
production of synthetic fuel will become profitable by the end of
the 1980s." Sotsialisticheskaya industriya, 17 November 1983, p.
4.
UNCLASSIFIED
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UNCLASSIFIED
Soviet scientists report that a more reliable determination
of the costs of producing liquid fuels from coal requires the
detailed design of a commercial-scale plant. They indicate,
however, that "on the basis of preliminary analysis, one can
contend that during 1990-95 the construction of a synfuels plant
on the basis of Kansk-Achinsk coal will turn out to be
advisable." Energiya, No. 2, 1984, p. 8.
According to the Director of the USSR Institute of Fossil
Fuels, Soviet synfuels research has laid the basis for
substantiating the possibility of producing 3 million tons of
liquid fuel per fuel. Coal consumption would equal 19.7 million
tons per year. Coke and Chemistry (Koks i khimiya), No. 12,
December 1984, p. 14.
Facil ities
The Soviets claim that an improved variant of primary
liquefaction of coal by hydrogenation has been developed by the
USSR Institute of Fossil Fuels. As a result, the pressure in the
reactor vessel can be lowered to 100 atmospheres. Khimiya i
Tekhnologiya Topliv i Masel (Chemistry and Technology of Fuels
and Oils), No. 3, 1984.
UNCLASSIFIED
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UNCLASSIFIED
Tass Statement in English 2130 GMT 23 December 1984:
"The first Soviet pilot plant to produce synthetic oil has
been tested successfully; its output is 5 tons in 24 hours.
Another one that will process 75 tons in 24 hours is being built
at the Kansk-Achinsk coal basin in Siberia."
UNCLASSIFIED
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3 April 1985
MEMORANDUM FOR: National Intelligence Officer or Economics
FROM: Director of Central Intelligent
SUBJECT: Soviet Synthetic Fuel Projects
Admiral Bill Mott, who is chairman of a commission under the aegis
of the Interior Department on strategic minerals, and Ed Noble, Chairman
of the Synthetic Fuels Corporation, were over here a few weeks ago asking
me what we know about the Kansk-Achinsk coal basin. SOVA provided the
attached. Will you have somebody brief this to them in the manner which
conforms to their clearances and the security classification of this
material. Tell them this is in response to their request of some weeks
ago.
W1`Yi1m J. Casey
Attachment:
DDI 01549/85
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SECRET
The Director Lit Ce?rnrat Intvfi ;en --~ - '"
t8 1090
18 March 1985
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Soviet Analysis, DDI
FROM: DCI
What do we know about a synthetic fuel
project in the Kanshachin (sp.?) Basin on
the Ensei (sp.?) in western Siberia?
William J. Casey
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DDI-% Q~ / b S
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA . Deputy Director for Intelligence i~y
FROM Douglas J. MacEachin
Director of Soviet Analysis
SUBJECT Soviet Synthetic Fuel Projects
REFERENCE : DCI Inquiry, 18 March 1985
1. In the referenced memorandum you asked what we knew
about a synthetic fuel project in the Kansk-Achinsk coal basin.
For more than a decade, Moscow has linked development of
synthetic fuels to expansion of its largest single coal source,
the Kansk-Achinsk Basin located in East Siberia near the Yenisey
i
(
'
r
ver
see map). A forthcoming In
ence Assessment
will analyze these issues
as we as others of importance in determining how rapidly the
Soviets can expand coal-based energy production. We have
provided information from the draft IA relating to the synfuels
development at Kansk-Achinsk as an attachment to this
memorandum. (C)
2. In our judgement Moscow cannot push synfuels development
into a commercial-industrial phase until the 1990s. The USSR
synfuels research program has focused on development of two
technologies: a pyrolysis process and a direct coal-conversion
process that yields synthetic liquid fuels. Pyrolysis involves
heating the coal to produce a semicoke and small amounts of
liquid fuel; direct conversion uses heat, pressure, and the
addition of hydrogen to produce a maximum yield of liquid fuel.
(C)
3. The Soviets probably will not need substantial Western
technical assistance to construct commercial coal pyrolysis
facilities. On the other hand, the Soviet effort to improve the
Bergius_direct-conversion process--a technology pirated from
Germany at the end of World War II--has met with only limited
success. If the USSR decides to build a commercial direct-
conversion facility during the 1990s, we believe that substantial
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Western assistance in technology and equipment would be
required. Key events in Soviet synfuels development are
highlighted below. (C)
4. Key Events in Soviet Synfuel Development
a. Background Events:
o In the mid-1970s, the West Germans and the Soviets
agreed to exchanges of selected research results and
technical information on synthetic fuels. These
exchanges have been conducted annually. (C)
o Publication of the USSR's Long-Term Energy Program
(March 1984) verified a goal to construct during
1990-2000 the first industrial-scale facilities for
production of synfuels from Kansk-Achinsk coal. (U)
o During 1982, Soviet synfuel research was reorganized
--past failures to advance domestic projects were
publicized and Western synfuel programs were
favorably reviewed. Western technologies for direct
and indirect coal liquefaction were specifically
noted by the Soviets. (C)
b. Recent Events:
o A plant using Kansk-Achinsk coal to demonstrate the
commercial possibilities of the pyrolysis process was
put into operation in 1983. (U)
o December 1984 marked the beginning of operations of a
direct-conversion pilot plant that will test the
feasibility of processing lignite into synthetic
crude oil. (U)
c. Pending Events:
o Soviet plans call for the start-up this year of a
direct-conversion pilot plant that will process 75
tons of Kansk-Achinsk lignite coal into liquid fuels
each day.
con st tion of this plant is only
finished. (S
Attachment:
as stated
Douglas J. MacEachin
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Exploitation of Kansk-Achinsk Coal
Kansk-Achinsk has the largest proved reserves of any coal
basin in the Soviet Union. According to Soviet coal industry
journals, the basin contains about 600 billion tons of lignite,
of which 140 billion tons are reportedly recoverable by surface
mining methods. Since the average thickness of the coal seams in
the basin ranges from 45 to 60 meters, the coal is readily
extracted through low-cost, open-pit mining methods with a very
low overburden-to-coal ratio. With such an enormous reserve
base, Soviet energy planners have considered Kansk-Achinsk coal a
major potential fuel source for electric power plants and
feedstock for synthetic fuels manufacture. (U)
Kansk-Achinsk coal is, however, a poor quality fuel. The
high moisture content (about 40 percent), low heating value
(3,300 kilocalories per kilogram), and variable physical and
chemical characteristics make direct shipment by railroad from
Kansk-Achinsk to power plants in the western USSR uneconomical.
Kansk-Achinsk coal is also subject to spontaneous combustion in
storage and transit and tends to freeze together in cold
weather. (U)
Current Production and Long-Range Plans
The USSR decided to proceed with development of the Kansk-
Achinsk basin in the late 1970s. Output has increased from 28
million tons in 1975 to an estimated 40 million tons in 1984.
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b hUKE'1' NUl URN
four mines in the basin are
currently producing: the Borodino mine, the largest mine in the
basin accounting for about half of the basin's total output;
Nazarovo 1 and 2; and the Berezovskoye mine which is in the early
stages of development. (S NF
The Soviet press reports that Moscow plans to produce about
70 million tons of coal at Kansk-Achinsk in 1990 and to increase
output to 170-200 million tons per year (t/y) by 2000. To attain
a production level of 170-200 million t/y, the Soviets plan to
develop two new surface mines, Borodino 2 and Uryupskiy 1.
Eventually the Soviets plan to develop three additional mines--
Berezovskoye 2 and Italskiy 1 and 2--and increase total basin
output to 350 million t/y. (U)
What to Do With the Coal?
Equipment capacity probably will not constrain development
of the Kansk-Achinsk basin, but the Soviets will still have to
overcome technical problems with the quality of the coal. The
quality limits the maximum economically effective shipping radius
to 1500 km--400 km short of major demand centers in the Urals and
2,000-3,000 km short of the industrial centers of the European
USSR. Proposed solutions for rapid development of the Kansk-
Achinsk basin have involved two general approaches:
-- Extracting the energy content of the coal in power
plants near the mines in central Siberia and sending
the electricity to the Western USSR over very high-
capacity power transmission lines.
-- Upgrading the coal quality through processing in
2
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facilities near the mines and transporting the
resulting semicoke, thermocoal, or liquid fuel to the
western USSR. (C)
Semicoke and Thermocoal: A Dead End?
Earlier Soviet plans called for the large-scale production
of either semicoke or thermocoal.' With these products, most of
the moisture would be eliminated and as a result, the final
products would be more economically transportable to the Western
regions. In 1983 the USSR completed construction of a commercial
demonstration facility at Krasnoyarsk--construction began in
1976. The facility uses pyrolysis to process to 1.2 million tons
of Kansk-Achinsk coal per year and produce about 400,000 tons of
semicoke, 54,000 tons of synthetic oil, and 120 million cubic
meters of gas. Earlier media reports indicated plans to build
three large-scale commercial pyrolysis facilities, each with the
capacity to process 25-50 million tons of coal. (S NF
We believe that the Soviets have scaled back their plans for
using pyrolysis or thermocoal processes.
research funds for the pyrolysis process were cut off in 1979.
The USSR Long-Term Energy Program, which was circulated early in
1984, indicates plans to produce semicoke only on a limited basis
1 In the production of therrrocoal, the moisture is singly removed by heating
the coal to about 450 degrees centigrade; most of the volatile matter that
contributes to better combustion remains. Although no synthetic liquids are
produced, the heating value of Kansk-Achinsk coal is increased from about
3,500 kilocalories per kilogr$n to about 6,400 kilocalories per kilogram. In
the production of senicoke by the pyrolysis process, coal is heated in the
absence of air to about 550 degrees centigrade and sane synthetic liquids are
produced. (C)
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from the Kansk-Achinsk coals that cause the worst boiler-fouling
problems when burned--about 8-9 percent of the basin's
reserves. The thermocoal process has also apparently lost
support because no synthetic liquids are produced and
transportation is required for a solid product. Soviet media
reporting that has discussed prospects for the Kansk-Achinsk
basin during the last few years seldom has mentioned pyrolysis or
thermocoal and instead has emphasized plans for liquefaction. (C
NF)
Coal Liquefaction
Despite serious research efforts during the past decade,
Soviet technology for converting coal into liquid fuels
(liquefaction) is only in the pilot-plant stage of development.
The Soviet liquefaction process must still be perfected before
being used in a commercial scale facility. The Soviets'
dissatisfaction with their progress is evidenced by their
attempts, during the past several years, to solicit cooperation
in coal conversion technology from West German, Japanese,
Italian, and US firms. (S NF
The Soviet Union is currently operating a 5 t/d (input)
direct conversion pilot plant--the ST-5 facility--(with an output
of 1 ton per day of synthetic liquids) at a mine near Moscow.
Construction of the plant began in 1981 but was not completed
until 1984. The plant reportedly uses an improved version of the
Bergius conversion process--a technology pirated from Germany at
the end of World War II. If the process proves feasible, the
Soviet media report plans to build a 75 t/d (input) liquefaction
4
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0Z% Jml.I Mir%JZU4
facility at the Berezovo mine in West Siberia.
A recent media report indicates, however, that the Soviets
are still evaluating coal liquefaction and that much work needs
to be done before a full-scale commercial plant could be built.
According to the USSR long-range energy goals, during 1986-90 the
Soviets will attempt to develop and perfect coal liquefaction
technology suitable for large-scale production of synthetic
liquids. The Soviet liquefaction process has a low yield--about
20 percent--of synthetic liquids whereas the yield for most D7.
Western technologies is about 40-50 percent. During 1986-90, the
Soviets may pursue joint-feasibility design studies of
liquefaction processes with Western firms. (C)
Most of the proven direct conversion technology with pilot
plant operating capacities greater than 5 t/d is of US origin.
The US processes--EDS and H-coal--can work with a variety of
coals, and the technology has been successfully tested with
lignite-grade coals. Two West German firms, Ruhrkohle and Veba,
operate the only significant direct-conversion facility located
outside the US. Ruhrkohle, moreover, is a sponsor of the two US
processes. Ruhrkohle may be able to share the technology with
the USSR under the sponsoring agreement. We are trying to
clarify this connection as we investigate the technology-transfer
aspects of Soviet synfuel development. (C)
The USSR's Long-Term Energy Program calls for the
construction of commercial direct-conversion facilities during
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the 1990s. We estimate that Western assistance in technology and
equipment is essential in order to meet this goal.
in 1983 that no real
experimental base exists in the USSR to support major West
Siberian synfuels projects. Moreover, the USSR is presently
unable to build a reliable hydrocracker--a secondary oil refining
technology that breaks down heavy fuel oils into lighter, more
valuable products-2 US experts indicate that most coal
conversion technologies employ "everything available in a
hydrocracker and then some."
the USSR is unable to build reliable hydrocrackers because of
equipment inadequacies, particularly the lack of high-pressure
and high-temperature equipment. (C NF F7
2 The Soviets have been unsuccessf lly trying to copy a French-built
hydrocracker since 1976. (S 1
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