NATIONAL DEFENSE STOCKPILE GOALS STUDY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00759R000100060005-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 11, 2010
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: May 15, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

ON-FILE NSC PP I FOCF INCTRI IrTI(ThI APPI V1 - ' ? -- -
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'7_X0.:?'7D,:M FOR: Assistant to the President for National Security
Affairs
Deputy Assistant to the President for National
Security Affairs
SUBJECT: National Defense Stockpile Goals Study
1. The NSC Staff-led study is in many respects superior to the
studies done previously on this topic, including the 1979 study by FEMA.
However, it is premature to use this study as the basis for broad and
important policy conclusions.
2. In undertaking such a study it is of course necessary to make
many assumptions and preliminary decisions in order to obtain concrete
results. In this case, however, the nature and scale of the assumed
conflict is too narrow to provide a reasonable basis for broad-based
decisionmaking on the strategic stockpile. Specifically, further study
should be undertaken which allows for several significantly different
alternatives, such as:
A broader scale of conflict including hostilities in
Africa which could disrupt the supply of important
commodities.
A scenario which significantly disrupts the Atlantic or
Pacific shipping lanes and posed high risks for
transport.
A lower scale of conflict under which domestic econonic
activity and civilian demand was not curtailed so
severely, including a less drastic interruption of oil
supplies.
Analysis of the impact of Soviet Bloc activity in
minerals markets during the conflict, either for
military requirements or because of preemptive buying.
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EC:'. :a-.,na: Defer.~e _a_s Study
3. It is also important to n,:--e that this stud'; did not examine
conditions in each affected industry in order to determine the potential
for various industrial process bottlenecks, such as competing require-
ments for the capital goods needed to increase rapidly the extraction and
processing of materials. Further study may be needed of peak wartime
demand for particular materials taking into account the engineering of
specific, high-technology weapons systems. On a related point, will the
US have the technology in place to allow for substitution of materials to
occur without unnecessarily long R&D and process engineering?
4. I further believe we need a more systematic review of the market
and political impact of a policy of even selected disposals.
5. Thus, I do not believe that the NSC Staff-led study yet forms a
broad enough basis for policy implementation.
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"ay 19?
2017/1
NOTE FOR: Vice Admiral John M. Poindexter, USN
Deputy Assistant to the President
for National Security Affairs
SUBJECT: National Defense Stockpile Goals Study
John:
I just returned from abroad a few hours before
yesterday's NSC meeting on stockpile goals and had
not had an opportunity to study the document.
That's why I passed on commenting. I have since
been able to get at it and I send you this memo
to reflect my conclusion that while the study
points a direction for action on the stockpile,
further study with respect to specific materials,
additional conflict scenarios, and collateral
circumstances arising from the technology and
requirements of weapons production and the economy
is needed in order to implement a policy.
Wi l/l iam J. Casey
Attachment
SECRET
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