NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 6 APRIL 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000200020021-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 7, 2010
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: April 6, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of T-owSeeret
Central
ICI ?~~ Intelligence
OCPAS/CIG.
Nazi ce Daily
Friday
6 April 1984
TOPuec, et
CPAS NID 84-081 JX
6 April 1984
Copy 7
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Contents
USSR: Verification of Chemical Weapons Destruction .............. 1
Syria: Power Struggle Continues ................................................ 4
Israel: Labor Party's Election Prospects .................................... 5
Japan-US: Visit by Socialist Leader ............................................ 6
Guinea: New Regime Taking Hold .............................................. 7
Angola: UNITA's Political and Military Plans .............................. 8
Israel-Syria: Warning on Attacks ................................................ 11
Libya-USSR: Qadhafi May Offer Military Facilities .................... 11
USSR-Jordan: Possible Visits .................................................... 12
USSR-Turkey: Concern About Possible INF Deployments ........ 12
France-Nicaragua: Reported Offer of Minesweepers ................ 13
China-US: Political Atmospherics .............................................. 13
Czechoslovakia: Press Attack on the Pope .............................. 14
Somalia: Changes in Military Commands .................................. 14
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Terrorist Watch 16
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USSR: Verification of Chemical Weapons Destruction
The latest Soviet proposal on verifying the destruction of
chemical weapons appears intended to maintain propaganda
momentum and avoid any firm commitment.
Last Monday the Soviet delegation to the Conference of Disarmament
in Geneva gave the US delegation an advance copy of a proposal on
verification procedures for the destruction of stockpiles of chemical
weapons. The document, which will be distributed at the conference
this week, follows up Soviet statements in February accepting the
principle of continuous international on-site monitoring of the
destruction of chemical weapons. The Soviets have touted that move
as a concession because they previously had insisted verification
should be based on a quota system.
The proposal calls for verification of the entire destruction process,
either by the permanent presence of international representatives or
by a combination of systematic international inspections and the use
of instruments. It suggests that inspectors could be present during
the destruction of binary chemical weapons, supertoxic lethal
chemicals, and corresponding munitions or devices.
Comment: The proposal clearly favors the alternative of combining
monitoring by instruments with occasional visits, apparently based on
a quota system. Its wording appears to exclude international
inspection of storage sites except for those that would be specially
designated for the storage of weapons slated for imminent
destruction. The proposal suggests that inspection of these sites
should coincide with visits to verify actual destruction.
Moscow's proposal allows it the maximum maneuverability in the
tough negotiations that presumably lie ahead. The Soviets apparently
wanted to put their views on record before the US tabled its own
treaty calling for more rigorous verification. The move is in keeping
with their apparent strategy of professing interest in progress on
various arms control issues while hewing to their fundamental
positions.
The Soviets have dismissed as propaganda the proposed US ban on
chemical weapons. They claim the US is blocking an accord by posing
unacceptable verification provisions.
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SYRIA: Power Struggle Continues
Tension In Damascus remains high despite President Assad's
efforts to impose a compromise on the rival factions in his Inner
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armed conflict between Rifaat and his opponents in the military has
risen during the past week. The close proximity and continued high
level of alert of opposing forces in Damascus increases the likelihood
of accidental clashes. Moreover, the lack of a solution to the str ucale
Comment: Relations between Assad and Rifaat probably are being
strained by the latter's willingness to flout the President's efforts to
resolve the crisis. Rifaat appears increasingly determined to force
Assad's hand and extract an unchallenged claim to the succession.
Assad almost certainly is reluctant to move against Rifaat. An open
break might threaten the survival of the Alawite regime. The President
may eventually conclude that such a step is necessary, but he
continues to exercise strong personal authority and might yet devise
an acceptable compromise.
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ISRAEL: Labor Party's Election Prospects
The Labor Party enters the election campaign more united than
at any time since it was ousted from power in 1977.
Party leader Peres was chosen yesterday to be the party's candidate
for prime minister. A public opinion poll published this week shows
Labor maintaining the strong lead over Likud that it has held since
last summer.
Comment: Labor's support among the public is likely to decline as
the election approaches. Prime Minister Shamir can take advantage
of his powers in the government for maximum political advantage. In
addition, Finance Minister Cohen-Orgad will manipulate economic
policy to win public support, although probably not as blatantly as his
predecessor did in 1981.
The public, moreover, sees, Peres as an unscrupulous politician but as
an effective administrator. He is neither popular nor respected.
In particular, Peres has failed to build a following among Sephardi
voters, who migrated from Islamic countries and now constitute a
majority of the electorate. Many Sephardis believe Peres deliberately
heightened ethnic tensions during the election campaign in 1981 in
order to rally Labor's traditional Ashkenazi voters, who came.from
Europe and North America.
Peres could still improve Labor's image among Sephardis by giving'
public assurances that former President Navon, who is a Sephardi,
would hold a key policymaking post in a Labor-led government. Labor
also could improve its chances if another Sephardi, Israel Kessar, is
appointed as expected to the top position in the Histadrut, Israel's
large union federation.
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JAPAM-US: Visit by Socialist Leader
Socialist Party Chairman Ishibashi hopes a successful visit to the
US will help move his party toward a more balanced foreign
olio and thereby strengthen its standing with the voters.
Ishibashi arrives in Washington tomorrow for 10 days of meetings
with Administration officials, members of Congress, businessmen,
and academicians. Although the Socialists are the largest opposition
party, they have not sent a delegation to the US since 1979. This is the
first to be led by the party chairman.
The US Embassy reports that Ishibashi will support the government
on bilateral trade issues while emphasizing that the Socialists have
basic differences rulin Liberal Democrats on defense and
foreign olic.
Comment: Since his election last summer, Ishibashi has been
unusually successful in directing the Socialists away from ideological
squabbles and in developing the realistic policies necessary to
challenge the Liberal Democratic Party. His criticism of Soviet SS-20
deployments and the shootdown of the South Korean airliner, as well
as his endorsement of Japan's "inseparable relations" with the US,
are designed to correct the party's longstanding pro-Soviet bias.
If the visit goes well, moderate Socialists may encourage further
contacts with the US. They also may take a firmer stand against the
party's left wing, which is already losing ground.
The extreme Marxists, however, still retain enough influence to have
forced Ishibashi on the eve of his departure to seek a meeting in the
US with South Korean dissident Kim Dae Jung. He also is having to go
slower in developing the party's contacts with Seoul.
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GUINEA: New Regime Taking Hold
The military leadershi has named a government and is trying to
win popular support.
Colonel Lansana Conte, who is head of the ruling Military Committee
and a former Army chief of staff, has been named President. Colonel
Diarra Traore, the second-ranking man on the Committee and the
former head of the Air Force, is the Prime Minister.
Traore heads a 31-member cabinet composed largely of middle- and
junior-level military officers, most of whom have been drawn from the
committee. Several civilians also are included in the cabinet. The US
Embassy reports that there seems to be a good balance by tribe and
among the various armed services in the makeup of the committee
and the cabinet
The committee has made several public pledges to assure the
security of property and to encourage private enterprise. Most of the
civil restrictions imposed during the coup have been removed.
Nonetheless, the committee has asked the public to be alert to efforts
to stage a countercoup, even though there are no signs of opposition
and all members of the former regime have been rounded up.
Comment: The new leaders seem to be consolidating their position
and moving toward forming a basically moderate government. The
fact that virtually all committee members have cabinet positions
suggests that the committee's influence and its collegial rule will soon
fade.
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LUANDA
South
Atlantic
Ocean
*KINSHASA
$umbe
UN/TA ra'd
last weeks
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Cafundo
I
200
Kilometers
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
9 Angolan/Cuban garrison
UNITA Claims
11 Control
Influence
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ANGOLA: UIXIIITA's (Political and Military Plans
UNITA leader Savimbi has again emphasized that conditions
leading to a Cuban troop withdrawal can only follow direct
negotiations between his organization and the regime in Luanda.
Savimbi told Western journalists who visited his headquarters in
southern Angola last week that UNITA would launch a diplomatic and
military offensive aimed at forcing Luanda to enter negotiations. He
added that, although he would not try deliberately to jeopardize the
current withdrawal of South African forces from Angola, UNITA is not
a party to the disengagement process and is not bound to curtail its
own operations.
The successful raid on the provincial capital of Sumbe last week was
described by the insurgents as the prelude to a military campaign that
would be directed increasingly. against Angolan cities. UNITA claimed
a force of several thousand men temporarily seized the poorly
defended city.
seven Cuban military personnel were killed and 21
wounded during the battle.
Savimbi also warned that UNITA would attack projects that involve
the UK and West Germany if the two governments do not deal with
UNITA in the same manner as the US, France, and Portugal. Earlier
this week London announced that it would break with past policy and
begin dealing directly with UNITA concerning British hostages
captured in February at a British-operated diamond mine.
Comment: UNITA apparently is trying to interject its demands for
direct talks with Luanda into future negotiations over a withdrawal of
Cuban troops. Although the guerrillas hold the military initiative and
probably can, attack cities throughout the country, UNITA is still
unable to defeat Angolan and Cuban forces in the major garrisons
and cities. A more active urban campaign nevertheless would reduce
the government's freedom to consider a Cuban troop withdrawal.
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ISRAEL-SYRIIA: Warning on Attacks
Defense Minister Arens's warning to Syria earlier this week to control
Palestinian attacks against Israeli soldiers in the Bekaa Valley
underscores Israel's policy of holding Syria responsible. An Israeli
military spokesman said that the Israeli artillery strikes last Sunday on
two of the PLO bases in Syrian-controlled territory were intended as
retaliation for a series of incidents along the cease-fire lines. He also
said they were a warning to Syria and the PLO that Israel will not
tolerate a war of attrition.
Comment: Tel Aviv issued a similar warning last spring, apparently
with some effect, when Palestinian attacks began to increase. If the
attacks continue, Tel Aviv is likely to authorize strikes against Syrian
positions in Lebanon. The Israelis, however, probably would be
selective in their choice of targets. They presumably would not want
to divert the Syrians' attention from their domestic political problems.
LOIBVA-USSR: Qadhati May Offer Military Facilities
Libyan leader Qadhafi in the past week has issued two warnings that
he intends to offer the USSR military facilities in Libya if the US
persists in its threats against Tripoli. In a major speech on 28 March,
Qadhafi stressed that such an action by Libya would be defensive and
intended to offset US nuclear missiles and NATO bases in southern
Europe as well as US military support for Egypt and Sudan. This week
Libya delivered an official statement to diplomats from several
Mediterranean countries emphasizing that Qadhafi is serious about a
military alliance with Moscow.
Comment: Qadhafi may hope that his threats will mobilize Arab,
European, and US public opinion against US policy toward Libya. As
Qadhafi has grown increasingly suspicious of US intentions, he
probably has become more interested in seeking Soviet protection-
an idea he previously rejected. Moscow and Tripoli discussed a
friendship treaty over a year ago, but that effort foundered. Qadhafi
presumably issued his current warnings without Moscow's approval.
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The US Embassies in Moscow and Amman report that Karen
Brutents, deputy chief of the Soviet party Central Committee's
International Department, may go to Amman from Beirut and that
Jordan's commander in chief has been invited to visit Moscow. A
Soviet diplomat recently told US officials that the USSR believes
Jordan's ties with the US are strong but that King Hussein is angered
by US policy toward Israel and by Washington's failure to provide
military equipment. He said Moscow would seriousl consider any
future Jordanian request for more Soviet weapons.
Comment: If Brutents visits Amman, he almost certainly will probe
Jordan's willingness to expand bilateral ties and its future arms
supply relationship with the USSR, following the US deferral of
Amman's request for air defense equipment.
USSR-TURKEY: Concern About Possible INF Deployments
Earlier this week, a
Soviet party foreign affairs expert stated in a BBC interview that
Moscow has reports of a US-Turkish agreement on cruise missile
deployment. A TASS report on Wednesday accused the NATO
nuclear planning group of seeking other suitable candidates in case
the Netherlands and Belgium refuse deployments.
Comment: Moscow's concern apparently has been heightened by a
combination of Dutch reluctance to decide on deploying the full
allotment of 48 cruise missiles, speculation in the Turkish press, and
the coincidential meeting in Turkey of NATO's nuclear planning
group. The Soviets apparently have not accepted private assurances
from Turkish officials, or public statements by the US, that there are
no plans for such deployments.
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FRANCE-NICARAGUA: Reported Offer of Minesweepers
The French press and the US Embassy report that Foreign Minister
Cheysson has hinted in a letter to Colombian President Betancur that
France might assist in reestablishing freedom of navigation in
Nicaraguan waters. Cheysson reportedly said that France would be
willing to provide minesweepers if Latin American countries
requested them and if at least one other West European country
participated.
Comment: President Mitterrand almost certainly does not intend to
jeopardize his good relations with the US by sending minesweepers to
Nicaragua. Cheysson has often made statements that subsequently
were refuted by official policy. In any case, his offer contains
unrealistic conditions. Cheysson may have wanted only to
demonstrate the government's credentials on Third World issues in
order to impress its leftist domestic supporters. Paris showed its
reluctance to provide aid to the Sandinistas last year when it
announced that it would stop selling arms to Managua.
CHINA-US: Political Atmospherics
Beijing has gone to unusual lengths to assure the US that President
Reagan will be well received in China. Premier Zhao told Secretary of
the Treasury Regan recently that China attaches "great importance"
to the visit and hopes that it will lead to the sustained development of.
bilateral relations. Moreover, the US Embassy reports Chinese
leaders are suggesting that talks on the maritime treaty and other
agreements could be concluded in time for the President to sign them
in Beijing. The media have tempered their comments on sensitive
issues, including the recent US announcement of the sale to Taiwan of
spare parts for military equipment.
Comment: Beijing's treatment of the impending visit contrasts with
its blunt criticism of US policy on Taiwan before Premier Zhao's visit
to Washington in January. The Chinese probably have concluded that
they can secure a more stable relationship and greater benefits from
the US by adopting a low-key approach to major issues.
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CZECHOSLOVAKIA: Press Attack on the Pope
The regime's recent attack on the Pope in the official press indicates
that it probably intends to continue a tough approach toward the
church, following an unproductive exchange of visits with the Vatican.
During the meetings, Prague demanded unsuccessfully that the
Vatican lift its two-year-old ban on priests' membership in Pacem in
Terris, which is the regime-sponsored organization of clergy. The
Vatican made no headway in obtaining permission to appoint new
Czechoslovak bishops. The US Embassy to the Vatican reports that
the last meeting in early March was acrimonious and nearly broke
down altogether.
Comment: The press attack presumably was designed to reassure
hardliners and to restrain the recent limited growth in church
attendance. The regime also is concerned that the effectiveness of the
church's ban reduces state control over church activities. In addition,
Prague's longstanding apprehension about the impact of a Polish
Pope on the stability of East European regimes is likely to have been
intensified by the recent rise in church-state frictions in Poland. F__1 25X1
SOMALIA: Changes in Military Commands 25X1
President Siad reassigned key military personnel last Sunday,
He stripped Minister of Defense
Samantar of his position as commander of the Army, replacing him
with the northern sector commander, General Ganni. Siad appointed
his own son-in-law to replace Ganni in the north. There are rumors
that more changes will be made.
Comment: Samantar's removal as Army commander creates
separate command structures for all branches of the armed forces,
thereby giving Siad greater direct control. The move will appease
influential clan leaders who resent Samantar's clan affiliation and puts
Ganni, a member of Siad's own clan, into a key position. Northern
leaders have long called for Ganni's removal, but Siad's son-in-law is
likely to continue dealing' firmly with them. Samantar will still play a
key role in military dealings with the US. Ganni, who has criticized US
military aid to Somalia, will be more heavily involved in such dealings.
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In Brief
Middle East - Lebanese envoys representing Gemayel went to Damascus
yesterday to prepare for summit meeting with Assad ... no date
has been set ... talks probably will focus on efforts to implement
cease-fire in Beirut.
coup would be another blow to West African stability.
- Preliminary reports indicate military elements this morning
overthrew Cameroonian President Biya ... most likely a power
grab by northern officers against southern-dominated regime .
investor and donor confidence.
- US Embassy reports 13 Liberian coup plotters scheduled to be
executed today ... Head of State Doe under Western pressure to
commute sentences ... executions could further erode Western
Bangkok yesterday lodged second protest at UN.
out pockets of Vietnamese forces still on their territory ...
- US Embassy reports clashes subsiding between Thai and
Vietnamese troops along Kampuchean border ... Thai clearing
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Terrorist Watch
Western Europe - The leftist 17 November organization, which has claimed credit for
the shooting of a US Army sergeant in Athens on Tuesday, states
that it will continue to attack US military personnel. The group also
claimed responsibility for the killing of a US Navy officer in Athens
in November. It reportedly seeks to force the US military out of
Greece.
Middle East - Black June has claimed credit for the attack in Jerusalem on
Monday that injured 44 people, but
the Democratic Front for
the Liberation of Palestine was responsible. The terrorists
apparently entered Israel from Lebanon, and the Israelis believe
the front could not have launched the operation without Syria's
support. Israel is likely to carry out reprisals in Syrian-controlled
areas of Lebanon.
Latin America - The attack on a Colombian town on Wednesday by elements of the
leftist M-19 group probably reflects the creation of a previously
announced western front. It also underscores the group's rejection
of the peace agreement recently signed by the government and the
country's largest insurgent organization.
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