NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY MONDAY 9 APRIL 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000200020030-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 7, 2010
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: April 9, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of Top Gewet
Central
National Intelligence Daily
Monday
9 April 1984
Top Sem et
CPAS
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Contents
USSR-US: Chernenko on Bilateral Relations ..............................
USSR: Meetings of Leadership ..................................................
Kuwait-US: Defense Minister's Concerns .................................. 4
Poland: Church-State Relations ............................................. 5
China-US: Progress on Joint Venture ........................................ 6
Cameroon: Attempted Coup Suppressed .................................. 6
China-Vietnam: Clashes on Border ............................................ 7
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Special Analysis
Romania: Ceausescu Under Pressure ........................................ 9
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General Secretary Chernenko's interview in Pravda today is
notably more critical of the US and more pessimistic on the
prospects for US-Soviet relations than his speech on 2 March.
The Soviet leader accuses the US of torpedoing the START and INF
talks and states that contacts with Washington show no positive
changes in the US position on. these issues. He says "measures" by
the US and its allies to restore the situation existing before the start of
INF deployments by the US are the "real road" to resuming talks.F_
reaching an agreement with the USSR on this issue.
Chernenko reviews the issues he had cited in his speech in March as
offering the possibility of a breakthrough in US-Soviet relations. He
claims that President Reagan recently stated that the US is beginning
a broad program of arms deployment in space and has no intention of
an agreement."
The General Secretary notes that the US has not yet tabled a treaty to
ban chemical weapons and is accelerating production and
deployment of them. He also cites the lack of US movement on
ratifying the Threshold Test Ban Treaty, the Peaceful Nuclear
Explosions Treaty, and a comprehensive test ban treaty. He accuses
the US of raising the issue of verification "whenever it does not want
had implied he might be more flexible on this than Andropov.
the Soviets to agree to resume the Geneva talks. In March his speech
Comment: The Soviet leader's interview today comes closer than his
earlier speech to specifying that the US must withdraw its missiles for
Minister Gromyko and Defense Minister Ustinov.
Chernenko may be genuinely disappointed that his earlier speech did
not bring forth more concessions from the US. In addition, with the
Central Committee plenum beginning this week, he may have found it
expedient to use language more akin to that in statements by Foreign
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USSR: Meetings of Leadership
The Central Committee plenum and the Supreme Soviet session
this week will provide indications of the extent of General
Secretary Chernenko's success in consolidating his power, amid
signs of the increased influence of Foreign Minister Gromyko and
some others.
The plenum, which is to begin today or tomorrow, and the Supreme
Soviet session on Wednesday are to deal primarily with personnel
matters rather than policy questions. Most Soviet officials say that the
Supreme Soviet will approve Chernenko as president and that
Tikhonov will remain as premier.
Several Soviet sources have reported that party secretary Gorbachev
will assume Chernenko's old post as chairman of one of the two
Supreme Soviet foreign affairs commissions along with the
ideological portfolio in the party Secretariat. Rumors are circulating
that KGB chief Chebrikov may be made a full member of the
Politburo.
Comment: Chernenko's anticipated election as president, combined
with his assumption of the chairmanship of the Defense Council,
would add to his authority. Chernenko, however, probably will have to
share power more than his predecessor did with Gromyko, Defense
Minister Ustinov, and Gorbachev.
Gromyko's increased influence has been acknowledged by several
Soviet officials. He has participated in all of Chernenko's meetings
with foreign heads of state since Andropov's funeral, and he
apparently has become the main formulator of foreign policy.
Gorbachev also has gained additional power since Andropov's death,
and his position may be strengthened at the meetings.
Chernenko probably has persuaded Tikhonov, his closest ally, not to
retire. If Chebrikov is promoted, it would indicate the continued
strength of the KGB and of Gorbachev and others who were allied
with Andropov in the Politburo.
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KUWAIIT-US: Defense Minister's Concerns
Defense Minister Salim-who arrives in Washington today-is
pleased by the public support for the sentences of those
responsible for the bombings in December, but he is worried
about the increased likelihood of an Iranian military strike or
terrorist attack.
Kuwait has received several threats since the sentences were
announced two weeks ago. Iran's Ayatollah Montazeri-Ayatollah
Khomeini's probable successor-expressed "regret and surprise" at
Kuwait's siding with the "foreign infidel" against Islam. In addition, a
Tehran-backed Islamic student group has threatened to bomb the
Amir's palace, government buildings, and foreign embassies if all
Muslim prisoners are not released.
US Embassy sources report that security around key installations
remains tight at the port of Shuwaybah-a target of the bombings in
December-and its associated petrochemical complex, and electric
power and desalination plants. Restrictions on visas and travel
imposed after the bombings remain in effect. Security authorities
continue to arrest and deport foreigners on a wide range of charges.
Comment: During his visit, Salim will raise the subject of Western
arms sales to Iran, and he will seek US support for ending the war.
Like other Kuwaiti officials, Salim believes the US can influence both
issues.
Salim prides himself on his diplomatic skills rather than his military
expertise, and he will see his visit as an opportunity to ease bilateral
tensions that were aggravated by Kuwait's rejection of the US
Ambassador-designate last summer. Salim also will probe US
willingness to sell Kuwait advanced fighter aircraft. He will be
reluctant, however, to discuss military cooperation, contingency
planning, or arrangements for the storage of military equipment.
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POLAND: Church-State Relations
The church and the government have temporarily resolved the
dispute over crucifixes at the agricultural school south of
Warsaw, but the decision by the regime not to proceed with
legislation granting the church legal status is likely to
complicate the resolution of other issues..
A senior church official told US Embassy officers that the compromise
on the crucifix issue might serve as a national model for resolving the
problem. According to Western press reports, however, other church
officials have said the return of the crosses would encourage students
throughout Poland to display crucifixes in their schools.
In addition to dropping its demand that students sign pledges to obey
school authorities, the government will permit students to wear
crosses on their clothing and allow crosses in the school library and
dormitories.
The parliament on Friday passed a general bill under which the church
can create a private foundation to provide funds to Polish agriculture.
Tough negotiations lie ahead on the specific regulations for the
foundation, according to church spokesmen. Meanwhile, a senior
church official told US Embassy officers that the government has
indefinitely shelved the long-anticipated legislation on the church's
legal status, because the regime lacks the will to overcome opposition
in its ranks.
Comment: Resolution of the crucifix controversy indicates that senior
government and church officials are intent on resolving minor
conflicts. They probably will try to exert greater control over zealous
local officials. Nevertheless, numerous contentious issues remain,
some of which are likely to cause public controversy.
The regime's decision not to proceed with the legislation defining the
church's rights and obligations probably reflects its concern about
possible criticism from domestic and Soviet hardliners, who would
view it as a major concession. The decision, however, probably will
delay agreement on the exchange of diplomatic representatives and
other issues between the Vatican and Poland.
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Mongolia
)Lake
Baikal
Soviet Union
BEIJING
Province
boundary
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Hainan
Dao
South
China
Sea
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
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North
Korea
p
Philippine
Sea
9 Aoril 1984
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CHIOMA-US: Progress on Joint Verdure
China and a US firm signed financial agreements last week that could
lead to the largest Chinese joint venture with a foreign country to
date. The Bank of China will guarantee loans obtained by Occidental
Petroleum to develop the world's largest open-pit coal mine at
Pingshuo in Shanxi Province. A final operating agreement reportedly
will be signed in China at the same time as President Reagan's trip
later this month. The mine, which could begin partial production in
1986, is expected to produce 15 million tons of coal per year, largely
for export markets.
Comment: Occidental's $360 million share of the $600 million
proposed project dwarfs the $85 million US firms now hold in Chinese
joint ventures. Pingshuo is the first joint venture to have foreign-
partner loans underwritten by the Chinese. Delays in port expansions
and a fall in world coal prices last year led Occidental to urge the
Chinese to secure its loans and guarantee a reasonable profit.
Negotiations had stalled until Premier Zhao, a longtime supporter of
the project, intervened early this year.
CAMEROON: Attempted Coup Suppressed
President Biya will need to reconstruct a workable ethnic and regional
balance in his government after having put down the attempted coup.
He announced late Saturday that the 36-hour mutiny by his northern-
dominated presidential guard had been crushed by paratroopers
airlifted to the city. Biya was unharmed and troops loyal to him
continued mopping-up operations in the capital yesterday. Reliable
estimates of casualties'and damage are not yet available, but no US
citizens have been harmed and the capital is returning to normal.
Comment: Biya will have difficulty handling demands from fellow
southerners that he deal harshly with northern mutineers without
appearing to seek retribution against the Muslim north.
Cameroonians throughout the country will profess support for Biya,
but his position has been weakened. Loyalist southern officers now
hold the balance of power, and at the least will be watching the
President closely. They may demand greater participation in
government decisions.
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Hanoi claims that on Friday it repulsed an attack by several Chinese
battalions after a three-hour fight. Beijing yesterday denied that
Chinese troops had entered Vietnam but reported that artillery units
continued shelling Vietnamese positions in retaliation for alleged
violations of Chinese borders on Thursday and Friday. The US
defense attache in Beijing reports that China's artillery attacks are
intended mainly as retaliation for stepped-up Vietnamese military
activity along the Thai-Kampuchean border.
Comment: The Vietnamese claim of incursions by battalion-size
Chinese units probably is an exaggeration, but sporadic small-unit
skirmishes probably have occurred since the artillery exchanges
increased last week. Chinese and Vietnamese units remain on alert,
,but there are no signs that either side is planning major hostilities.
Although Vietnamese attacks along the Thai-Kampuchean border
appear to have subsided, China probably will maintain pressure on
Hanoi to demonstrate its support for Thailand and the resistance
forces in Kampuchea.
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Near East 25X1
In Brief
- UN Security Council to meet soon to consider six-month renewal
of UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon ... current mandate expires
19 April . .. Perez de Cuellar may suggest UN and Lebanese forces
council ... Army commanders and public supported Doe's
replace Israeli troops in Lebanon.
willingness to show support for Qadhafi.
and naming of commander unusual and underscore Moscow's
- Soviet naval task group will begin five-day visit to Libya tomorrow
... first visit by Soviet ships since July ... public announcement
-Liberian Head of State Doe has commuted death sentences of 10
of 13 coup plotters despite unanimous demand by ruling military
Yoruba under northern-dominated regime
decision
- Nigeria's military rulers deadlocked over issue of whether to
punish former President Shagari ... disagreement could provoke
palace coup ... also increasing potential for violence by southern
now in Mozambique to defend supply lines
trucks transiting Mozambique ... 800-1,000 Zimbabwean troops
- Zimbabwean military will escort convoys of imported food through
Mozambique ... follows recent Mozambican insurgent attack on
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Special Analysis
President Ceausescu's domestic standing appears to have fallen
to an ailtime low as a result of deteriorating economic
conditions. To counter his critics and protect his position, the
President shuffled the party and state leadership late last month.
The changes, however, are unlikely to lead to improvements in
economic conditions. On the contrary, they could cause
additional disaffection in the bureaucracy and dangerously erode
Ceausescu's standing.
Fuel shortages have been disrupting industry and transportation
since January. Heavy winter snows and exceptionally cold weather
severely affected economic activity, which already had been hit hard
with import cuts, especially of energy.
Following the second poor, rgrain crop in three years, consumers
apparently have less food. local
governments are cutting rations of basic foodstuffs, and even bread is
becoming scarce in some parts of the country. Officials visiting the
West in recent months have said that workers have to wait in line for
most foods, and they are spending much of the workday planning how
to feed their families.
These developments have eroded popular morale, although there has
Ceausescu's decision to make changes in his leadership team
suggests he may sense pressure building against him. The
replacement of the Minister of Electric'Power and the Minister of
Agriculture and Food Industry appear intended to shift the blame for
the increasing shortages of power and food and to show that remedial
action is being taken.
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The new ministers, however, are undistinguished functionaries. They
presumably were selected mainly for their loyalty to the President,
and they probably will have little success in improving the
performance of their ministries.
At the party plenum late last month Ceausescu also made changes in
the Secretariat, which implements policy. The changes apparently
were designed to strengthen the grip of Ceausescu and his politically
powerful wife. The plenum replaced the secretary in charge of foreign
relations, added four new secretaries, and reportedly centralized the
personnel selection process.
Mrs. Ceausescu is believed to have
engineered the selection of Secretary for Foreign Relations Stoian as
a means of countering the authority and influence of Foreign Minister
Andrei, whom she dislikes. The strong-willed Stoian reportedly has
clashed frequently with the officials in the Foreign Ministry.
party secretary Bobu, who is a close ally of Mrs.
Ceausescu, has been given overall responsibility for cadre selection
and party organization. This is first time in nearly a decade that a
single individual has been allowed to control this powerful portfolio.
Another crony of Mrs. Ceausescu reportedly has been out in charge
of health, education, and social security.
These changes have not been received well by the growing number of
Ceausescu's critics. Some members of the Central Committee
reportedly have said that the new party secretaries are the worst
selections that could have been made.
The concern and resentment of party members about the increasing
influence of Ceausescu's family and his cronies were underscored by
rumors that circulated at the plenum. Ceausescu's next move
reportedly may be to name his son, Nicu, party secretary for military
and security affairs. In addition, he may name one of Nicu's close
friends as minister of interior.
Despite his current problems, Ceausescu still wields considerable
power through his control of the internal security apparatus.
Nonetheless, continued economic decline-especially if combined
with radical personnel moves that unsettle the party bureaucracy-
could make him more vulnerable than at any previous point in his rule.
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