NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 12 APRIL 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000200020041-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 26
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 7, 2010
• Sequence Number: 41
• Publication Date: April 12, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
OCPASICIG
C y# 285
National Intelligence Daily
Thursday
12 April 1984
Top See, -
CPAS NID 84-086JX
12 April 1984
Copy 7 R S
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Top Secret
Contents
Western Europe-US-Nicaragua: Increasing Criticism .............. 1
Sudan: Increasing Labor Unrest ................................................ 2
UK: Tide Turning Against Strikers .............................................. 3
France: Possible Ministerial Changes ........................................ 4
USSR: Leadership Appointments ................................................ 6
USSR-Eastern Europe: High-Level Meetings Planned .............. 7
USSR-Pakistan-Afghanistan: New Soviet Proposal .................. 8
Morocco: Islamic Committee To Meet ........................................ 9
Africa: Prospects for an OAU Summit ........................................ 9
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Venezuela: Progress Toward Debt Rescheduling ...................... 10
India-Bangladesh: Deteriorating Relations ................................ 11
West Germany: Metalworkers' Strike Averted .......................... 11
Special Analysis
Lebanon: New Approaches ........................................................ 13
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WESTERN EUROPE- Increasing Criticism
US-NICARAGUA:
Criticism by West European countries of the mining of
Nicaraguan harbors Is being intensified by the US refusal to
accept the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice in
cases relating to Central America.
An official in.the Dutch Foreign Ministry, on the instructions of Foreign
Minister Van Den Broek, told the US Embassy yesterday his
government has "great difficulties" with the US decision on the ICJ
and finds it hard to defend. The Embassy reports that the US position
may cast more doubt on The Hague's final decision on INF
deployments. It also notes that those opponents of deployment who
rely on legal rather than political or ethical arguments may try to
exploit Washington's stand.
Norwegian Foreign Minister Stray, in a parliamentary debate
yesterday on the controversy, expressed regret about US policy. He
announced that the Norwegian Embassy in Washington has been
instructed to ask the US to clarify its role in Nicaragua. Although Stray
tried to -balance parliamentary criticism by claiming that the US has
some right to intervene in the region, a member of his party said the
Foreign Minister might have to retract his comments and take a
tougher line against US policy in Central America.
In the UK, 76 Labor Party MPs petitioned Parliament yesterday to
protest the US actions. In Belgium, an official in the Foreign Ministry
told the US Embassy yesterday that French Foreign Minister
Cheysson and other EC Foreign Ministers had expressed concern
about the situation during their meeting on Tuesday, but that the EC
has no current plans to take action. The Spanish Government
delivered a protest note to the US Embassy in Madrid yesterday
condemning the mining.
Comment: Domestic pressures probably will continue to raise the
level of public and official criticism of the US decision on ICJ
jurisdiction and of overall US policy in Central America. In addition,
West European politicians and the press continue to worry that Iran
will use the mining of Nicaraguan waters as a justification at some
point to block the movement of oil supplies through-the Strait of
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SUDAN: Increasing Labor Unrest
President Nimeiri has failed to end a strike by doctors, and he
will have to soften his position to avoid potentially damaging
sympathy strikes.
Sudanese security forces last Sunday arrested 43 doctors who had
resigned because the government refused to meet their demands for
better pay and hospital conditions. The US Embassy reports that on
Tuesday Nimeiri released the arrested doctors, except for a few he
considered leftist sympathizers.
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Last week Nimeiri closed Khartoum University, where professors
support the doctors and have threatened their own strike.
Last Saturday riot police used tear gas to disperse
student demonstrators near the university's campus.
Comment: Most Sudanese appear to support the doctors and to
doubt Nimeiri's claim that the strike is part of a Communist plot. A
series of sympathy strikes could paralyze the economy and lead to
disturbances.
In such circumstances, there is a strong possibility that the military
might fail to support Nimeiri. Military morale already has been shaken
by the insurgency in the south and by the Libyan airstrike.
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Tide Turning Against Strikers
militant strikers.
The government's strategy of using restraint in dealing with the
coal miners' strike seems to be turning sentiment against the
not require membership approval, into a nationwide walkout.
Comment: The executive council of the coal miners' union could
decide today to hold a vote on a nationwide strike in the next few
weeks. Militant union members, led by union President Scargill, have
been staging regional strikes for the past four weeks to protest the
government's plan to close 20 unproductive mines within a year.
Moderates-who dominate the-council-have been urging a ballot to
frustrate Scargill's scheme to transform the regional strikes, which do
Pickets so far have shut down two-thirds of the country's coal mines
and idled more than 120,000 miners. The union's membership,
however, is deeply divided on the issue and is unlikely to sanction the
continuation of the strikes.
The credibility of the strikers appears to be eroding. The
government's refusal to seek legal charges against the militants
reportedly has deprived the miners of a unifying cause.
The press also has increased its criticism of Scargill, suggesting that
he is using the strikes to conduct a political crusade against the
government. The US Embassy reports that even the leadership of the
Labor Party, which traditionally has represented the trade unions in
Parliament, hopes a national strike ballot would go against Scargill. It
also reports that the public generally disapproves of the militants'
actions.
The militants are receiving only sporadic backing from other union
members. The rail and steel unions, which pledged solidarity last
week, are wavering in their support. In addition, the members of the
country's second-largest coal pit have twice voted to continue
working.
relieve the pressure to dip into stockpiles.
Such uneven support probably will prevent the strikers from
disrupting the economy. The government says it has enough.coal on
hand to last six months, and the arrival of warmer weather should
to feel pinched until early fall even if the strikes last that long.
According to press accounts, however, the government has been
The Embassy reports that power plants and steel mills will not begin
forced to cancel a planned cut in coal prices.
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FRANCE: Possible Ministerial Changes
Mounting public criticism of President Mitterrand's domestic
policies may force a ministerial shakeup in coming months.
Press reports have emphasized that increasing Communist
opposition to the government's policies threatens for the first time to
rupture the leftist coalition. Communist leader Marchais has publicly
criticized the government's plan to reform the steel industry as a
"tragic error," and he has encouraged participation in the "March on
Paris," which is scheduled for tomorrow.
Comment: An expected poor showing by leftists in the election of the
European Parliament in June may encourage Mitterrand to replace
some of his key ministers. Well-publicized press accounts and opinion
polls indicate that the government's reduction of jobs in ailing
industries and its financial austerity measures have hurt its popularity.
Key groups that support the government have led 'the protests against
its economic policies. They include the largest Socialist-affiliated
trade union and dissidents in the Socialist leadership of the National
Assembly. Mitterrand almost certainly would hope that new faces in
the government would help rebuild leftist support in preparation for
the legislative elections in 1986.
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USSR: Leadership Appointments
New state posts for Politburo members Gorbachev and General
Secretary Chernenko will improve their ability to deal with foreign
affairs. The Supreme Soviet session yesterday appointed Gorbachev
to head the same foreign affairs commission to which Chernenko was
named in 1982 after Brezhnev died. Chernenko was elected Chairman
of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet, or head of state, as Soviet
sources had predicted, and Premier Tikhonov was reappointed to his
post. Today the session will name the rest of the Council of Ministers
to serve under Tikhonov, discuss the proposed school reform, elect a
Supreme Court, and appoint a USSR prosecutor. 25X1
Comment: Chernenko's real political power continues to reside in his
post as General Secretary, but the "presidency" legitimizes his status
in dealing with foreign heads of state. Similarly, Gorbachev already
held a stronger position as the party's chief executive under
Chernenko, but the additional post adds visibility to his activities in
foreign affairs, and it also strengthens his credentials as a future
contender to become General Secretary. The 53-year-old
Gorbachev's firm hold on the party's number-two position makes him
the heir apparent in any immediate succession to Chernenko.l 25X1
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USSR-EASTERN EUROPE: High-level Meetings Planned
Soviet and East European leaders will hold their first high-level
discussion since General Secretary Chernenko's succession during a
series of conferences and summits that begin later this month.
a meeting of Warsaw Pact Foreign 25X1
Ministers will take place in Budapest on 19 and 20 April. The meeting
will discuss the.situation in Europe following INF deployments,
according to a Yugoslav press report sourced to observers in
Budapest. The press report states a summit of Warsaw Pact party
leaders in Sofia will follow the Foreign Ministers' meeting. Bulgarian
leader Zhivkov last week announced in Poland that a CEMA summit
also would be held soon. 25X1
Comment: These meetings probably will provide the first indications
of Soviet policy under Chernenko toward the other members of the
Warsaw Pact and how much latitude they may have for resisting
Moscow's political and economic demands. Reports from several
sources suggest that the Soviets are seeking tighter coordination of
foreign policy under Chernenko. There may be conflicts over this
issue at one or more of the impending meetings.
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USSR-PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN: New Soviet Proposal
UN Special Representative on Afghanistan Cordovez has told the US
Embassy in Islamabad that the USSR has made a new proposal for
separate and parallel discussions on Soviet troop withdrawals. He
says that, if Pakistan will negotiate seriously on noninterference in
Afghan internal affairs, and if the US will "guarantee" Pakistani
pledges, Moscow will immediately negotiate with its Afghan allies on
withdrawing Soviet troops. The results of both negotiations could
then be incorporated into a UN accord.
Comment: The USSR apparently has gone back to its longstanding
public position that troop withdrawals are a bilateral issue between
Moscow and Kabul. In talks with Cordovez last April, the Soviets
agreed that withdrawals could be a subject for negotiations between
the Afghans and Pakistanis but later rejected the idea. Moscow's
current offer suggests that the Soviets want to keep the negotiations
alive but that they are not serious about negotiating.
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Members of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC)
South
Atlantic
Ocean
a Afghanistan's membership was suspended in January 1980
Note: The Palestine Liberation Organization is a member of the O/C
Jerusalem Committee Members of the OIC
Bangladesh
Jordan
Pakistan
Guinea
Lebanon
PLO
Indonesia
Mauritania
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Morocco
Senegal
Iraq
Niger
Syria
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North
Pacific
Ocean
alaysia J r? (F% -0,
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King Hassan is to chair a meeting of the "Jerusalem Committee" of
the Islamic Conference on 20 April to discuss the proposal by the US
Congress to move the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. The US
Embassy in Rabat reports that Hassan has been urged by several
Islamic states to convene the committee. An adviser to the King says
that Hassan will have no choice but to advocate a tough response if
the legislation is passed and the Embassy is moved.
Comment: Hassan is well informed on the issues involved in the
proposal. The committee may decide to send him to the US to deliver
a message approved at the meeting. If the Embassy is moved, the
conference may call on its 45 members to break diplomatic relations
with the US.
AFRICA: Prospects for an OAU Summit
Algeria and other supporters of the Saharan Democratic Arab
Republic are urging a decision to hold the next OAU summit meeting
in Addis Ababa in late May, according to the US Embassy in Addis
Ababa. The support of. 34 African countries-two-thirds of the OAU
members-would be necessary to force a meeting. The backers of
the Saharan republic hope to gain OAU membership for it.
Comment: Morocco and other moderates in the OAU will seek
another venue for the summit and may succeed in delaying it until late
this year. Morocco apparently has lost support among some African
states, who blame Rabat for stalling settlement efforts sponsored by
the OAU on the Western Sahara dispute. The seating of the Saharan
Democratic Arab Republic at the summit would prompt a walkout by
Morocco and probably some of its allies. A summit in Addis Ababa
next month would be likely to extend the term of the current OAU
chairman- Ethiopia's Mengistu-for another year.
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VENEZUELA: Progress Toward Debt Rescheduling
Venezuela has improved its prospects for a major debt rescheduling
agreement later this year. The US Embassy reports that the
government recently repaid almost all of the estimated $225 million in
overdue interest on the public-sector debt. This enables US banks to
avoid classifying these loans as nonperforming and reporting reduced
first-quarter earnings. To break the impasse in the negotiations on
rescheduling, Venezuela has promised to begin paying $900 million
toward interest on the private-sector debt.
Comment: The interest payments and President Lusinchi's new
economic adjustment program are important steps in arranging the
refinancing of the $14 billion due to banks this year. International
bankers are waiting to see whether Caracas follows through on its
promise to begin paying overdue private-sector interest, which will
require the government to provide foreign exchange. Caracas
probably will begin to tap its $11 billion in reserves to repay these
debts, thereby opening the way for a rescheduling agreement.
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Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
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INDIA-BANGLADESH: Deteriorating Relations
The Chief Minister of the Indian State of Assam has told the US
Ambassador that India has begun construction of a fence along its
border with Bangladesh. The fence, which Dhaka strongly opposes, is
intended to stop the illegal entry of Bangladeshis. It was proposed by
officials in Assam last year, following a major outbreak of ethnic
violence between Assamese Hindus and Bengali Muslims.
Comment: Relations between New Delhi and Dhaka are already
strained over water sharing and land disputes. Cost and technical
problems are likely to deter New Delhi from fencing the entire 4,000-
kilometer border, but it will build sections in those areas where the
likelihood of illegal entry is greatest. In Dhaka, Chief Martial Law
Administrator Ershad's political opponents will use the controversy to
strengthen their charge that he is submissive to India.
Leaders of the pacesetting metalworkers' union on Tuesday backed
off from calling for a strike vote by its 2.5 million members on its
demand for a 35-hour workweek. According to one poll, as little as
20 percent of the membership was willing to strike over the issue. The
union agreed instead to resume talks with management next
Tuesday. The press says the union is-looking for a face-saving
conclusion to its uncharacteristically militant campaign for a 35-hour
workweek.
Comment: While the possibility of short, selective strikes remains, an
industrywide action appears to have been averted. Government and
business leaders had feared that the shortened workweek with no cut
in wages would have increased employers' costs, threatening West
Germany's competitiveness and the accelerating pace of recovery. A
peaceful settlement would be a political victory for Chancellor Kohl's
government, whose proposals for legislation on early retirement
helped deprive labor of an issue. The opposition Social Democrats, on
the other hand, have endorsed the union's demand for a 35-hour
workweek.
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In Brief
Middle East - Lebanese Foreign Ministry official says ties with Iran and Libya to
be restored once Tehran demonstrates "good intentions" .. .
probably meant as incentive to Libya to curb support for
opposition ... ties with Iran would mollify Shias.
to missile complexes.
- Soviets have notified US, as "goodwill gesture," of multiple
ballistic missile launches between 6 and 21 April ... could include
ICBMs, IRBMs, and SLBMs ... also may test SS-17 emergency
communications system, which could send launch authorizations
Hu Yaobang by expanding campaign.
- Beijing rumor mill says Chinese party propaganda chief sacked ...
may be scapegoat for leadership's mishandling of "spiritual
pollution" campaign ... he allegedly tried undermine party leader
backpedaling on. austerity would endanger talks with IMF.
- Peruvian cabinet changes offer little chance of correcting
government's drift ... despite pressure to ease austerity
measures, fiscal conservatives will fill key economic posts ...
South Asia - Violence continues in Indian state of Pun'ab ... resentment rising
against police control measures ..
- Compromise wage agreement ends 26-day strike in major Indian
ports ... press estimates production and export losses as high as
$2 billion ... port congestion will hinder economy for several more
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Distribution of Lebanese Confessional Groups
.u I
1 Heights
49f (Israeli 1949
_-! Israel i occupied)
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Maronite
Greek Orthodox
Greek Catholic
Mixed Maronite and
Greek Catholic
Shia Muslim
Sunni Muslim
Druze
Mixed Druze and
Greek Orthodox
Population shifts caused by the June
1982 Israeli invasion are not depicted.
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative,
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Special Analysis
LEBANON: New Approaches
Following Syria's failure at Lausanne.to arrange a political
settlement in Lebanon,.Maronite Christians and Druze have
decided to abandon efforts at political reform and are now
pushing to transform Lebanon into a federation of sectarian
ministates. This approach works against-the political and
economic interests of the Muslim majority, especially the Shias,
whose approval will be necessary for any lasting
accommodation. The proponents of federation probably will try
to take advantage of the current hiatus in foreign involvement in
Lebanon to override Shia opposition.
Christian hardliners remain unwilling to negotiate with Muslims and
Druze over sharing power in a unified state. The abrogation of the
Lebanese-Israeli accord has reduced Syrian pressure on the
Maronite-dominated Lebanese Government to respond to reforms.
Moreover, the current power struggle in Damascus and the lower
policy profiles of the US and Israel have interrupted foreign initiatives
to achieve a Lebanese settlement. As a result, factional leaders
probably believe they have more room to explore alternative
strategies.
Exploring New Strategies
Lebanese Forces militia commander Fad! Fram has told the US
Embassy that he anticipates a period of precarious calm while the
factions explore new strategies. Fram expects that eventual progress
on security issues will affect political developments and enable the
contesting groups to reach a modus vivendi. He believes this
eventually will lead to a federal government in Lebanon.
Fram acknowledges that the Lebanese Forces militia has temporarily
stopped trying to reach a settlement with Shia leader Bard-who
opposes efforts to change the government structure-in favor of
cooperating with Druze leader Junblatt. The Shias are preoccupied
with Syrian and Israeli control over their main population centers. As
a result, they are not now in a position to resist the machinations of
the Maronites and the Druze.
Junblatt has not been a consistent advocate of a federated Lebanon,
and in the past he has turned down the concept of a Druze ministate.
Nevertheless, his inability to reach agreement with Gemayel has led
him to conclude that his best alternative is to deal directly with the
continued
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Estimated Percentage of Lebanese
Confessional Groups in 1983
Other Christian-1
Other Catholic-3
Orthodox-6
Confessional Group Population
? Muslim sects
? Christian sects
? Druze
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The Druze and Lebanese Forces recently took a step toward an
accommodation. They agreed to an Israeli-sponsored plan that
resulted in the evacuation of Maronite militiamen from a
predominantly Druze region south of Beirut. In exchange, the Druze
agreed to protect returning Christian residents.
Federation is not a satisfactory solution for the Druze, however,
primarily because it leaves their territory vulnerable to Israeli and
Syrian influence. Without a central government committed to
protecting the Shuf, the region could become a buffer-or a
battleground-for conflicting Syrian and Israeli interests
Druze overtures to the Maronites underscore the conflict of interests
between the Druze and the Shias, who recently collaborated in
wresting control of West Beirut from the government. The Shias want
to turn their advantage in numbers into political and economic power.
They oppose federalism because it would dilute their strength and
produce a central authority without any interest in freeing Shia
population centers in the south and in the Bekaa Valley from Israeli
and Syrian control.
The Sunnis, traditional allies of the politically dominant Maronites,
also oppose the federal concept. Like the Shias, the Sunni community
is scattered. Political decentralization would confine them to their
demographic strongholds around Tripoli and Sidon, far from the
commercial heart of Lebanon and subject to Syrian or Israeli
influence.
Non-Maronite Christians, who outnumber the Druze, have neither a
defined territory nor military leverage to defend their interests.
Similarly, other political groups not strictly sectarian would
lose out in a federated state.
In the short term, the Sunnis will be forced to ally themselves with the
Shias. This alliance is awkward, particularly in view of recent Druze
and Shia efforts to suppress. the Murabitun, a band of street thugs
that nonetheless is the only militia representing Sunni interests.
Relations between the two groups will founder eventually, if only
because the Sunnis fear that the numerically dominant Shias will
displace them politically.
The Maronites and the Druze may be able to take advantage of the
present power void in Lebanon to lay the groundwork for their own
sectarian cantons. Over the longer term, however, they cannot force
the Muslim majority to accept a federal system that disregards
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Muslim-especially Shia-demands for political and economic
power. Unless Shia aspirations can be satisfied, any attempt to
reorganize the state will encounter determined resistance.
DIA agrees that, in the aftermath of the Lausanne conference and the
departure of the Multinational Force, the intensity of efforts by
regional and international parties to assist Lebanon in achieving
national reconciliation has indeed been reduced. However, neither
Syria nor to a lesser extent Israel feels that its interests will be served
by a more institutionalized partition than already exists, or by the
subjugation of any particular faction by other factions.
Internally, the alliance between the Shia and the Druze has not
deteriorated to an extent that would mandate a Phalange-Druze
coalition strong enough to force the Muslim community to accept a
federal state. Furthermore, there is no evidence that Phalange-Druze
discussions on federation have progressed beyond the preliminary
stage, and, as each has a different definition of "federalism," it seems
improbable that such talks will lead to an effective alliance. Finally,
there is a prospect of further withdrawals by Israeli, and possibly
eventually Syrian, forces. This could allow Shias currently located in
foreign-occupied areas to join their coreligionists in confronting any
attempt to partition Lebanon.
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