ECONOMIC & ENERGY INDICATORS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88-00798R000500190005-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 29, 2011
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: March 13, 1987
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2011/09/29 :CIA-RDP88-007988000500190005-4
Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
DI EE/ 87-006
3 March 1987
Approved For Release 2011/09/29 :CIA-RDP88-007988000500190005-4
 Approved For Release 2011/09/29 :CIA-RDP88-007988000500190005-4
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 Approved For Release 2011/09/29 :CIA-RDP88-007988000500190005-4
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Economic Industrial Production 1
Gross National Product 1
Consumer Prices 1
Money Supply
Unemployment Rate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption 9
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports 9
Crude Oil Prices 10
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Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Dec
1.2
-2.1
1.9
3.0
3.9
0.7
0.9
-2.1
-3.4
40.4
-0.1
10.2
-4.7
-5.8
6.2
7.1
-3.8
-23.3
2.7
0.6
5.0
-4.0
-7.4
13.5
6.0
-12.8
6.6
-20.5
-0.9
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
Japan
4.1
3.1
3.3
5.0
4.7
3.5
4.7 -1.7 3.8 2.6
West Germany
-0.2
-1.0
1.8
3.0
2.5
6.9
-2.7 -4.2 14.3 2.9
France
0.2
1.8
0.7
1.5
1.4
3.7
2.6 -0.8 4.3
United Kingdom
-1.4
1.9
3.5
2.8
3.4
-0.4
-0.4 S.5 1.4 1.4
Italy
0.2
-0.5
-0.2
2.8
2.3
0.2
1.6 -1.7 11.1 1.6
Canada
3.3
-4.4
3.1
5.5
4.0
3.1
7.3 2.4 3.1 1.2
e Constant market prices.
Consumer Prices
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1st Qtr
2d Qtr 3d Qtr 4th Qtr Jan
United States
10.3
6.2
3.2
4.3
3.5
1.4
-1.7 2.6 2.8
Japan
4.9
2.6
1.9
2.3
2.0
0.4
0.9 -2.0 -0.1 -1.2
West Germany
6.0
5.3
3.3
2.4
2.2
-1.0
-1.0 -0.5 -1.6 1.3
France
13.3
12.0
9.5
7.7
5.8
1.0
1.7 2.6 3.3
United Kingdom
11.9
8.6
4.6
5.0
6.1
4.0
0.7 2.4 6.7 7.2
Italy
19.3
16.4
14.9
10.6
8.6
5.9
5.0 5.0 3.1 5.1
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Money Supply, M-1 a
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3dQtr
4th Qtr
Dec
United States b
7.1
6.6
11.2
7.0-
9.1
9.0
16.4
17.5
18.2
35.1
Japan
3.7
7.1
3.7
2.8
5.0
7.3
9.6
9.6
9.2
-6.6
West Germany
1.1
3.6
10.2
3.3
4.4
9.8
11.3
7.4
9.9
-1.1
France
12.2
13.9
8.8
15.9
2.0
8.4
-0.1
-15.4
United Kingdom
NA
NA
13.0
22.0
26.1
30.7
14.2
-13.8
Italy
11.2
11.6
15.1
12.3
13.7
8.4
2.3
5.5
Canada
3.8
0.7
10.1
3.4
4.2
-4.3
-1.7
15.8
14.6
-3.4
e Based on amounts in national currency units.
b Including M1-A and M1-B.
Unemployment Rate a
Percen
t seasonall
y adjusted
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Jan
United States
7.5
9.6
9.4
7.4
7.1
6.9
7.0
6.8
6.7
6.6
Japan
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.8
West Germany
5.6
7.7
9.2
9.1
9.3
9.1
9.0
8.8
8.7
8.7
France
7.6
8.4
8.6
9.8
10.2
10.1
10.4
10.5
10.5
10.5
United Kingdom
10.0
11.6
10.7
11.1
11.3
11.5
11.6
11.6
11.4
11.3
Italy
8.4
9.1
9.9
9.9
10.1
10.9
10.7
10.7
Canada
7.5
11.1
11.9
11.3
10.5
9.7
9.6
9.7
9.4
9.7
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Foreign Trade e
United States b
Exports
233.5
212.3
200.6
218.0
213.1
53.0
53.2
55.3
55.9
18.3
Imports
261.0
244.0
258.4
326.3
346.1
91.6
88.3
93.4
96.7
30.8
Balance
-27.5
-31.6
-57.9
-108.3
-133.0
-38.6
-35.1
-38.1
-40.8
-12.5
Japan
Exports
149.6
138.2
145.5
168.1
173.9
47.8
51.4
54.0
52.2
17.1
Imports
129.5
119.6
114.0
124.1
118.0
29.9
28.9
28.0
26.2
8.4
Balance
20.1
18.6
31.4
43.9
55.9
17.9
22.4
26.0
26.0
8.7
West Germany
Exports
175.4
176.4
169.5
171.9
184.3
55.2
60.8
63.2
64.7
22.2
Imports ~
163.4
155.3
152.9
153.1
158.9
44.9
47.9
48.1
50.5
16.8
Balance
11.9
21.1
16.6
18.8
25.3
10.3
12.9
15.1
14.2
5.4
France
Exports
106.3
96.4
95.1
97.5
101.9
30.4
29.8
32.4
32.7
11.0
Imports
115.6
110.5
101.0
100.3
104.5
30.3
30.9
32.1
32.2
10.4
Balance
-9.3
-14.0
-5.9
-2.8
-2.6
0.1
-1.1
0.3
0.5
0.6
United Kingdom
Exports
102.5
97.1
92.0
93.7
100.9
26.1
26.9
26.1,
27.5
9.4
Imports
94.6
93.1
93.3
99.4
103.5
28.2
29.3
30.6
31.3
10.5
Balance
7.9
4.0
-1.3
-5.7
-2.6
-2.1
-2.4
-4.5
-3.8
-1.1
Italy
Exports
75.4
73.9
72.8
73.5
78.9
23.3
24.4
24.9
25.2
7.7
Imports
91.2
86.7
80.7
84.4
90.8
26.0
24.4
24.2
25.3
7.4
Balance
-15.9
-12.8
-7.9
-10.9
-11.9
-2.7
0
0.7
-0.1
0.3
Canada
Exports
70.5
68.5
73.6
86.6
88.1
21.8
21.1
21.7
22.6
7.5
Imports
64.4
54.1
59.3
70.6
75.3
20.2
19.3
20.3
20.6
6.8
Balance
6.1
14.4
14.3
16.0
12.8
1.7
1.8
1.4
2.0
0.7
a Seasonally adjusted.
b Imports are customs values.
Imports are c.i.f.
Japan
4.8
6.9
20.8
35.0
49.2
12.7
23.1
24.4
25.8
8.1
9.4
West Germany
-6.8
3.3
4.3
6.7
13.8
6.9
8.3
8.0
13.2
4.8
4.3
France
-4.7 -
12.1
-4.9
-0.8
0.1
1.1
0.3
1.2
United Kingdom
15.3
8.5
4.7
1.7
4.7
0.8
0.4
-1.2
-0.3
-0.3
0.1
Italy
-8.6
-5.7
0.6
-2.8
-4.0
-3.4
1.2
e Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
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Export Prices in US $
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr Nov Dec
United States 9.2
1.5
1.0
1.4
-0.6
-0.5
1.8
5.0 5.6 3.2
Japan 5.5
-6.4
-2.4
0.2
-0.6
26.1
24.9
12.0 6.9 -3.0
West Germany -14.9
-2.8
-3.2
-7.1
0
40.7
16.5
30.3 -12.3 23.4
France -12.0
-5.5
-4.8
-2.9
2.5
33.3
-0.6
20.1 -18.8
United Kingdom NA
NA
-6.2
-$.I
2.3
-2.6
'7.2
-7.4 5.1 12.3
Italy -7.8
-3.0
-4.4
-5.2
-0.3
27.3
6.3
21.9 -2.6
Canada 3.9
-2.0
0.2
-0.4
-3.5
-14.0
2.8
-10.4 -18.0 3.7
Import Prices in US $
Percent change.from previous period
at an annual rate
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Ist Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr Nov Dec
United States 5.3
-2.0
-3.7
1.7
-2.4
-6.5
-9.6
-1.6 -3.9 -8.3
Japan 3.6
-7.4
-5.0
-2.8
-4.3
-5.3
-49.2
-12.6 -2.0 16.2
West Germany -8.6
-4.7
-5.2
-4.8
-1.5
10.0
-11.1
5.3 -17.8 15.8
France -7.8
-7.2
-7.0
-3.8
-0.4
11.0
-11.8
1.0 -13.8
United Kingdom NA
xA
-5.7
-4.5
0.5
-0.5
2.4
- 8.5 10.0 31.7
Italy 1.0
-5.3
-6.6
-3.7
-1.0
10.6
-19.1
- 2.7 -8.7
Canada 8.7
-1.1
0.6
1.0
-2.1
-8.7
3.4
- 6.8 -15.6 -4.7
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United States
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
16.24
12.49
9.23
10.56
8.16
7.68
6.75
6.09
5.92
6.07
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
7.79
7.23
NA
6.66
6.52
6.38
5.98
5.68
NA
NA
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
12.19
8.82
5.78
5.96
5.40
4.53
4.52
4.53
4.67
4.80
France
interbank money market
(3 months)
15.47
14.68
12.51
11.74
9.97
9.01
7.37
7.14
7.68
7.92
United Kingdom
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
13.85
12.24
10.12
9.91 1
2.21
12.28 1
0.12
9.99 1
1.27 1
1.37
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
20.13
20.15
18.16
15.91 1
4.95
15.87 1
2.74 1
1.43 1
1.33 1
1.59
Canada
finance paper (3 months)
18.46
14.48
9.53
11.30
9.71
11.08
NA
8.57
NA
NA
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
16.87
13.25
9.69
10.86
8.40
7.90
7.00
6.29
6.15
6.36
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Wheat
(US # 2. DNS
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
a The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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Chrome Ore
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ per metric ton)
53.0
50.9
50.0
50.0
43.9
40.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
Copper a (bar, ? per pound)
79.0
67.1
72.0
62.4
64.5
62.3
64.5
64.5
60.3
59.8
61.5
Gold ($ per troy ounce)
460.0
375.5
424.4
360.0
317.2
366.1
342.6
341.6
376.2
404.1
407.3
Lead a (~ per pound)
32.9
24.7
19.3
20.0
17.7
18.4
16.7
17.6
17.7
21.5
21.8
Manganese Ore
(48% Mn, $ per long ton)
82.1
79.9
73.3
69.8
68.4
65.5
67.2
64.8
65.1
64.8
64.8
Nickel ($ per pound)
Cathode major producer
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
LME Cash
2.7
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.75
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
Platinum ($ per troy ounce)
Major producer
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
517.0
475.0
475.0
517.0
600.6
600.0
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
446.0
326.7
422.6
358.2
291.0
458.1
383.1
420.1
510.8
518.5
493.3
Rubber (? per pound)
Synthetic b
47.5
45.7
44.0
44.4
44.1
37.6
42.8
38.7
35.6
33.2
NA
Natural ~
56.8
45.4
56.2
49.6
42.0
42.8
41.7
40.1
44.1
45.3
NA
Silver ($ per troy ounce)
10.5
7.9
11.4
8.1
6.1
5.5
5.9
5.2
5.3
5.6
5.4
Steel Scrap n ($ per long ton)
92.0
63.1
73.2
86.4
74.4
73.4
74.0
71.8
73.8
73.9
NA
Tina (Q per pound)
641.4
581.6
590.9
556.6
543.2
280.8
357.4
250.5
244.9
270.4
303.6
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
$ per metric ton)
18,097
13,426
10,177
10,243
10,656
6,936
8,673
7,567
6,558
4,945
5,460
US Steel
(finished steel, composite,
$ per long ton)
543.5
567.3
590.2
611.6
617.8
555.4
551.2
554.4
557.1
558.9
NA
Zinc a (Q per pound)
38.4
33.7
34.7
41.5
35.4
34.5
28.5
33.8
37.5
38.1
35.3
Lumber[ndexe
(1980 =100)
95
84
114
105
103
112
100
121
113
112
110
Industrial Materials Index ~
85
71
82
76
69
70
69
70
68
71
72
Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME. As of February 1986 tin
prices from the Kuala Lumpur market.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
Quoted on New York market.
d Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
e This index is compiled by using the average of 10 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
rThe industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
Thousand b/d
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Dec
World
55,837
53,092
52,625
53,674.
52,931
54,977
55,802
56,705
55,167
55,648
Non-Communist countries
41,602
38,810
38,228 .
39,257
38,692
40,384
41,026
41,833
40,287
40,768
Developed countries
12,886
13,276
13,864
14,302
14,730
15,114
14,200
14,380
14,384
14,416
United States
8,572
8,658
8,680
8,735
8,933
9,099
8,762
8,455
8,368
8,348
Canada
1,285
1,270
1,356
1,411
1,457
1,412
1,456
1,529
1,509
1,500
United Kingdom
1,811
2,094
2,299
2,535
2,533
2,663
2,377
2,513
2,479
2,502
Norway
501
518
614
700
785
860
651
892
959
1,000
Other
717
736
915
921
1,022
1,080
954
991
1,069
1,066 ~
Non-OPEC LDCs
6,036
6,633
6,823
7,515
7,845
7,600
7,882
7,914
8,039
8,218
Mexico
2,321
2,746
2,666
2,746
2,733
2,273
2,478
2,509
2,460
2,570
Egypt
598
665
689
827
874
813
787
760
890
935 r
Other
3,117
3,222
3,468
3,942
4,238
4,514
4,622
4,645
4,689
4,713
OPEC
22,680
18,901
17,541
17,440
16,117
17,670
18,939
19,539
17,864
18,134
Algeria
803
701
699
638
645
652
684
688
662
662
Ecuador
211
211
236
253
280
297
299
285
274
285
Gabon
151
154
157
152
1153
180
180
180
180
180
Indonesia
1,604
1,324
1,385
1,466
1,235
1,265
1,342
1,263
1,188
1,188
Iran
1,381
2,282
2,492
2,187
2,258
2,324
2,067
1,537
1,865
2,200
Iraq
993
972
922 '
1,203
1,437
1,750
1,748
1,750
1,617
1,550
Kuwait b
947
663
881
912
862'.
1,134
1,402
1,536
1,300
1;300
Libya
1,137
1,183
1,076
1,073
1,069
1,000
1,306
1,242
1,000
1,000
Neutral Zones
370
317
390
410
355
234
305
433
353
333
Nigeria
1,445
1,298
1,241
1,393
1,464
1,432
1,566
1,542
1,303
1,300
Qatar
405
328
295
399
302
300
334
374
358
350
Saudi Arabia b
9,625
6,327
4,867
4,444
3,290
4,318
4,696
5,676
4,966
5,000
UAE
1,500
1,248
1,119
1,097
1,146.
1,230
1,430
1,448
1,213
1,201
Venezuela
2,108
1,893
1,781
1,813
1,621
1,554
1,580
1,585
1,585
1,585
Communist countries
14,235
14,282
14,397
14,417
14,239
14,593
14,776
14,872
14,880
14,880
USSR
11,800
11,830
11,864
11,728
11,350
11,540
11,720
11,830
11,840
11,840
China
2,024
2,042
2,121
2,280
2,496
2,613
2,613
2,613
2,613
2,613
Other
411
410
412
409
393
440
443
429
427
427
a Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Approved For Release 2011/09/29 :CIA-RDP88-007988000500190005-4
 Approved For Release 2011/09/29 :CIA-RDP88-007988000500190005-4
1st Qtr 2d Qtr 3d Qtr Oct Nov Dec Jan
United States e 16,058 15,296 15,184 15,708 ` 15,726 16,056 15,864 16,172 16,441 16,051 16,897 16,583
Japan 4,444 4,204 4,193 4,349 4,123 4,737 3,658 3,824 4,117 4,548
West Germany 2,120 2,024 2,009 2,012 2,060 2,214 2,500 2,124 1,955 1,797
France 1,744 1,632 1,594 1,531 1,498 1,718 1,441 1,422 1,464 1,462 1,753
United Kingdom 1,325 .1,345 1,290 1,624 1,402 1,407 1,360 1,387 1,434
Italy b 1,705 1,618 1,594 1,513 1,507 1,691 1,390 1,500 1,672
Canada 1,617 1,454 1,354 1,348 1,342 1,297 1,308 1,365 1,386
Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
b Principal products only prior to 1981.
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
1st Qtr 2d Qtr Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
United States 4,406 3,488. 3,329 .3,426 .3,201 3,111 4,138 4,984 4,317 4,453 4,444 4,281
Japan 3,919 3,657 3,567 3,664 3,377 3,691 3,008 3,168 3,122
West Germany 1,591 1,451 1,307 1,335 1,284 1,336 1,294 1,382 1,240
France 1,804 1,596 1,429 1,395 1,476 1,410 1,432 1,825 1,123 1,209
United Kingdom 736 565 456 482 523 477 606 925 897 689
Italy 1,816 1,710 1,532 1,507 1,462 1,593 1,640
Canada 521 334 247 244 283 346 295 400 421
Approved For Release 2011/09/29 :CIA-RDP88-007988000500190005-4
 Approved For Release 2011/09/29 :CIA-RDP88-007988000500190005-4
OPEC Average a 34.50 33.63 29.31 28.70 28.14 26.17 22.59 22.33 22.86 18.01 18.10
(Official Sales Price)
a F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most cases, for the producing company buy-back oil. Weighted by the volume
of production.
Approved For Release 2011/09/29 :CIA-RDP88-007988000500190005-4
 Approved For Release 2011/09/29 :CIA-RDP88-007988000500190005-4
Average Crude Oil Sales Prices
11.29 11.02 11.77 12.88 12.93
~...,:.
.... .. a::::
3.39 ~ ,r~ ate:
r-, d,. to
~ ~
~O o
ri oo ..-~
15.35
I II III IV I II III IV J
1985 1986 1987
a The 1973 price is derived from posted prices; 1974-84 prices are derived
from OPEC official sales prices; and, beginning in 1985, prices are a
measure of average world sales prices.
Approved For Release 2011/09/29 :CIA-RDP88-007988000500190005-4