ECONOMIC & ENERGY INDICATORS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 28, 2011
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: September 11, 1987
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
11 September 1987
DI EEI 87-019
11 September 1987
Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
 Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798ROO0600230005-8
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Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798ROO0600230005-8
 Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Industrial Production
Gross National Product
Consumer Prices
Money Supply
Unemployment Rate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption 9
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports 9
Crude Oil Prices 9
Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
 Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
United States
2.6
-7.2
5.9
11.2
2.0
1.0
3.2 3.7 8.8 4.8
1.0
0.4
3.5
11.1
4.6
-0.4
5.6 -1.9 -15.5 49.6
West Germany
-2.3
-3.2
0.3
3.3
3.9
2.2
-2.8 -0.5 38.4 -10.9
France
-2.6
-1.5
1.1
1.7
0.8
0.6
-1.3 8.1 12.4 26.0
United Kingdom
-3.9
2.1
3.9
1.3
4.7
1.9
3.5 1.9 11.2 -12.0
Italy
-1.6
-3.1
-3.2
3.4
1.2
2.7
11.5 2.4 30.7 -29.5
Canada
0.5
-10.0
5.3
8.8
4.3
Percent chan
seasonally adj
ge from previ
usted at an a
ous period
nnual rate
United States
2.5
-2.5
3.6
6.8
3.0
2.9
1.5
4.4
2.3
Japan
4.1
3.1
3.3
5.0
4.7
2.5
2.9
4.9
West Germany
-0.2
-1.0
1.8
3.0
2.5
2.4
-0.6
-3.4
4.1
France
0.2
1.8
0.7
1.7
2.2
2.1
United Kingdom
-1.4
1.9
3.5
2.8
3.4
2.8
3.9
5.3
Italy
0.2
-0.5
-0.2
3.5
2.7
2.7
1.2
-1.5
Canada
3.3
-4.4
3.1
6.3
4.3
3.3
0
6.1
6.1
Constant market prices.
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
United States
10.3
6.2
3.2
4.3
3.6
1.9
5.3 4.9 4.3 2.9
Japan
4.9
2.6
1.9
2.3
2.0
0.6
-2.2 5.0 -2.3 -5.8
West Germany
6.0
5.3
3.3
2.4
2.2
-0.2
0.9 1.4 0.9 3.6
France
13.3
12.0
9.5
7.7
5.8
2.5
5.3 2.3 2.0 2.7
United Kingdom
11.9
8.6
4.6
5.0
6.1
3.4
5.7 1.9 2.6 4.3
Italy
19.3
16.4
14.9
10.6
8.6
6.1
4.1 4.3 5.6 7.1
Canada
12.5
10.8
5.8
4.3
4.0
4.2
3.4 5.6 3.4 6.3
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 Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
Money Supply, M-1 a
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
United States b 7.1 6.6
11.2
7.0
9.2
13.4
13.8
6.5
-9.9
1.6
Japan 3.7 7.1
3.7
2.8
5.0
6.9
12.6
13.7
-10.8
10.8
West Germany 1.1 3.6
10.2
3.2
4.5
9.9
6.0
13.3
5.9
7.3
France 12.2 13.9
10.4
9.0
7.6
9.6
-0.1
26.6
United Kingdom NA NA
13.0
20.6
29.7
36.0
11.1
Italy 11.2 11.6
15.1
12.3
13.7
10.2
3.9
Canada 3.8 0.7
10.1
3.4
4.2
4.9
13.3
a Based on amounts in national currency units.
b Including MI-A and MI-B.
Unemployment Rate a
United States 7.5 9.6
9.4
7.4
7.1
6.9
6.6
6.1
6.0
5.9
Japan 2.2 2.4
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.7
West Germany 5.6 7.7
9.2
9.1
9.3
8.9
8.8
8.8
8.9
9.0
France 7.6 8.4
8.6
9.8
10.2
10.4
10.9
11.0
11.0
11.1
United Kingdom 10.0 11.6
10.7
11.1
11.3
11.5
11.1
10.7
10.5
10.4
Italy 8.4 9.1
9.9
10.1
10.3
11.1
11.9
Canada 7.5 11.1
11.9
11.3
10.5
9.6
9.6
9.1
8.9
9.1
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 Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
Foreign Trade
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
United States b
Exports
Imports
Balance
233.5
261.0
-27.5
212.3
244.0
-31.6
200.6
258.4
-57.9
218.8
326.1
-107.3
212.7
345.8
-133.0
216.7
366.4
-149.6
57.0
93.2
-36.1
60.6
97.4
-36.8
20.4
33.4
-13.0
Japan
Exports
Imports
Balance
149.6
129.5
20.1
138.2
119.6
18.6
145.5
114.0
31.4
168.0
124.1
43.9
173.8
118.0
55.8
205.3
112.8
92.5
54.7
27.1
27.6
54.5
31.1
23.5
18.3
10.9
7.4
West Germany
Exports
Imports c
Balance
175.4
163.4
11.9
176.4
155.3
21.1
169.5
152.9
16.6
171.9
153.1
18.8
184.2
158.9
25.3
243.6
191.1
52.6
68.9
52.9
16.1
72.0
56.5
15.5
24.5
19.2
5.3
France
Exports
Imports
Balance
106.3
115.6
-9.3
96.4
110.5
-14.0
95.1
101.0
-5.9
97.5
100.3
-2.8
101.9
104.5
-2.6
125.0
124.9
0.1
34.6
35.6
-1.0
35.6
37.7
-2.2
12.1
12.7
-0.6
United Kingdom
Exports
Imports
Balance
102.5
94.6
7.9
97.1
93.1
4.0
92.0
93.3
-1.3
93.7
99.4
-5.7
101.0
103.6
-2.6
106.8
119.1
-12.3
30.3
32.0
-1.7
31.8
35.6
-3.9
10.4
11.6
-1.2
Italy
Exports
Imports
Balance
75.4
91.2
-15.9
73.9
86.7
-12.8
72.8
80.7
-7.9
73.4
84.4
-11.0
78.8
90.9
-12.0
97.9
99.9
-2.1
27.0
28.8
-1.7
28.1
31.2
-3.1
9.3
11.1
-1.8
Canada
Exports
Imports
Balance
70.5
64.4
6.1
68.5
54.1
14.4
73.6
59.3
14.3
86.5
70.6
15.9
87.6
75.2
12.4
86.9
79.4
7.5
23.1
20.8
2.3
22.6
20.6
2.1
7.5
7.4
0.1
Seasonally adjusted.
b Imports are customs values.
Imports are c.i.f.
United States
6.3
-8.1
-46.6
-107.0 -116.4 -141.4
-37.1
Japan
4.8
6.9
20.8
35.0 49.2 85.8
21.0
22.6
7.5
7.2
West Germany
-6.8
3.3
4.3
8.1 15.8 37.7
10.9
10.7
3.0
2.6
France
-4.7
-12.1
-4.9
-0.8 0.1 3.9
0.3
United Kingdom
15.3
8.5
4.7
1.8 4.5 -0.6
0.7
-0.9
-0.2
-0.5
-8.6
-5.7
0.6
-2.8 -3.5 4.8
-2.2
Canada
-5.0
2.1
2.4
2.6 -0.9 -6.7
-1.3
-1.5
- Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
 Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
United States
9.2
1.5
1.0
1.4
-0.6
0.4
-3.6
3.5
-5.8
Japan
5.5
-6.4
-2.4
0.2
-0.6
20.7
17.4
17.2
-15.8
West Germany
-14.9
-2.8
-3.2
-7.1
0
32.0
36.8
8.0
-16.3
France
-12.0
-5.5
-4.8
-2.9
2.5
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-6.2
-5.1
2.3
7.9
45.2
29.6
-14.1
Italy
-7.8
-3.0
-4.4
-5.1
-0.3
21.9
22.1
Canada
3.9
-2.0
0.2
-0.4
-5.6
-5.2
11.3
5.3
19.8
Percent chan
ge from pre
at an
vious period
annual rate
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
5.3
-2.0
-3.7
1.7
-2.4
-3.3
8.0
16.2
17.3
Japan
3.6
-7.4
-5.0
-2.8
-4.3
-13.4
39.8
23.2
-2.2
West Germany
-8.6
-4.7
-5.2
-4.8
-1.5
9.3
34.1
12.8
-8.7
France
-7.8
-7.2
-7.0
-3.8
-0.4
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-5.7
-4.5
0.5
5.1
46.4
16.7
-19.7
Italy
1.0
-5.3
-6.6
-3.7
-1.0
4.9
33.4
Canada
8.7
-1.1
0.6
1.0
-6.2
-2.3
9.8
5.3
-17.3
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 Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
Exchange Rate Trends
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
Trade-Weighted
United States
10.5
10.6
5.8
9.1
6.3
-13.3
-19.7
-9.7
-2.3
13.1
Japan
9.3
-5.7
10.4
6.2
6.8
32.7
4.9
22.6
17.9
-24.1
West Germany
-2.1
7.0
5.8
1.0
1.7
8.8
8.8
-1.4
4.5
-2.0
France
-5.1
-6.1
-4.7
-2.1
2.7
3.7
1.5
-1.7
0.8
-10.7
United Kingdom
2.5
-2.1
-5.0
-2.5
2.0
-6.6
5.9
19.4
18.5
-10.7
Canada
0.3
0.2
2.3
-2.3
-3.6
-6.9
8.0
-2.1
-21.0
7.2
2.7
-12.9
4.6
0
-0.3
29.3
16.6
24.9
17.0
-39.9
-58.5
-24.6
-7.2
-5.2
-11.5
-3.3
26.2
29.0
7.1
12.9
-22.2
-20.4
-28.7
-20.8
-15.9
-14.7
-2.7
22.8
24.1
6.6
9.5
-21.8
-16.3
United Kingdom
-13.2
-13.4
-13.3
-11.9
-3.0
13.2
35.1
27.7
21.1
-19.0
-13.2
Italy
-32.8
-18.8
-12.3
-15.6
-8.6
21.8
21.5
2.1
-0.3
-25.8
-21.1
Canada
-2.5
-2.9
0.1
-5.1
-5.4
-1.7
12.4
1.3
-22.3
-2.3
-15.0
Money Market Rates
United States
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
Japan 7.79 7.23 NA 6.66 6.52 5.91 5.98 5.68 5.58
loans and discounts
(2 months)
West Germany 12.19 8.82 5.78 5.96 5.40 4.56 4.52 4.53 4.67
interbank loans
(3 months)
France
interbank money market
(3 months)
United Kingdom
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
Canada
finance paper (3 months)
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
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 Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
Bananas 214.0 217.0 232.0 243.0 110.3 108.9 116.3 NA NA NA
Fresh imported,
(Total world, $ per metric ton)
Australia
(Boneless beef,
f.o.b. US Ports)
United States
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
Cocoa (0 per pound)
89.8
74.3
92.1
106.2
98.7
89.3
86.0
88.9
87.0
NA
Coffee ($ per pound)
1.28
1.40
1.32
1.44
1.43
1.71
1.12
1.05
1.01
0.96
Corn
(US #3 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
150
123
148
150
125
101
82
93
96
91
Cotton
(World Cotton Prices, "A"
index, c.i.f. Osaka, US 0/lb.)
72.69
74.48
85.71
63.91
57.87
47.52
65.87
NA
NA
NA
Palm Oil
(United Kingdom 5% bulk,
c.i.f., $ per metric ton)
571
445
502
730
501
257
330
341
342
299
US (No. 2, milled,
4% c.i.f. Rotterdam)
632
481
514
514
484
348
224
256
283
NA
Thai SWR
(100% grade B
c.i.f. Rotterdam)
573
362
339
310
249
229
233
242
240
NA
Soybeans
(US #2 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Soybean Oil
(Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill,
$ per metric ton)
Soybean Meal
(US, c.i.f. Rotterdam
$ per metric ton)
Sugar
(World raw cane, f.o.b.
Caribbean Ports, spot prices ? per pound)
16.93
8.42
8.49
5.18
4.04
6.05
7.10
6.58
6.40
NA
Tea
Average Auction (London)
(a per pound)
91.0
89.9
105.2
156.6
90.0
87.5
85.5
64.4
60.0
NA
Wheat
(US #2. DNS
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
210
187
183
182
169
148
141
139
137
132
The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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 Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
Major US producer
77.3
76.0
77.7
81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
NA
LME cash
57.4
44.9
65.1
56.8
47.2
52.2
57.8
64.9
67.6
72.1
Chrome Ore
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ per metric ton)
53.0
50.9
50.0
50.0
43.9
40.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
Copper a (bar, ? per pound)
79.0
67.1
72.0
62.4
64.5
62.3
63.3
69.0
71.2
76.4
Gold ($ per troy ounce)
460.0
375.5
424.4
360.0
317.2
366.1
405.7
446.2
450.0
450.5
20.0
17.7
18.4
21.3
27.3
28.5
29.8
Manganese Ore
(48% Mn, $ per long ton)
82.1
79.9
73.3
69.8
68.4
65.5
64.8
62.3
61.4
61.4
Platinum ($ per troy ounce)
Major producer
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
517.0
600.0
600.0
600.0
600.0
446.0
326.7
422.6
358.2
291.0
458.1
515.3
581.0
567.0
567.0
8.1
6.1
5.5
5.5
7.6
7.4
7.6
86.4
74.4
73.4
76.3
NA
NA
NA
556.6
543.2
280.8
303.1
300.4
297.0
291.0
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
$ per metric ton)
18,097
13,426
10,177
10,243
10,656
6,936
6,351
7,811
7,633
7,633
US Steel
(finished steel, composite,
$ per long ton)
Lumber Index e
(I 980=100)
95
84
114
Industrial Materials Index r
85
71
82
(1980= 100)
Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME. As of February 1986 tin
prices from the Kuala Lumpur market.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
c Quoted on New York market.
a Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
e This index is compiled by using the average of 10 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
1The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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 Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
World
55,837
53,092
52,625
53,674
52,931
55,703
53,535
53,924
53,863
54,010
Non-Communist countries
41,602
38,810
38,228
39,257
38,692
40,901
38,640
39,029
38,968
39,115
Developed countries
12,886
13,276
13,864
14,302
14,730
14,510
14,376
14,110
14,141
13,856
United States
8,572
8,658
8,680
8,735
8,933
8,668
8,386
8,406
8,444
8,359
Canada
1,285
1,270
1,356
1,411
1,457
1,466
1,464
1,450
1,450
1,450
United Kingdom
1,811
2,094
2,299
2,535
2,533
2,508
2,478
2,271
2,300
2,100
Norway
501
518
614
700
785
841
965
931
900
900
Other
717
736
915
921
1,022
1,027
1,083
1,052
1,047
1,047
Non-OPEC LDCs
6,036
6,633
6,823
7,515
7,845
7,854
7,981
8,082
8,097
8,064
Mexico
2,321
2,746
2,666
2,746
2,733
2,431
2,524
2,540
2,555
2,536
Egypt
598
665
689
827
874
813
878
913
914
900
Other
3,117
3,222
3,468
3,942
4,238
4,610
4,579
4,628
4,628
4,628
OPEC
22,680
18,901
17,541
17,440
16,117
18,537
16,283
16,837
16,730
17,195
Algeria
803
701
699
638
645
671
600
600
600
600
Ecuador
211
211
236
253
280
289
189
27
40
40
Gabon
151
154
157
152
153
180
150
150
150
150
Indonesia
1,604
1,324
1,385
1,466
1,235
1,264
1,145
1,173
1,180
1,180
Iran
1,381
2,282
2,492
2,187
2,258
1,929
2,534
2,500
2,500
2,500
Iraq
993
972
922
1,203
1,437
1,746
1,631
2,000
2,000
2,000
Kuwait b
947
663
881
912
862
1,344
967
950
950
950
Libya
1,137
1,183
1,076
1,073
1,069
1,137
916
935
930
950
Neutral Zone
370
317
390
410
355
332
413
336
300
360
Nigeria
1,445
1,298
1,241
1,393
1,464
1,461
1,205
1,236
1,285
1,300
Qatar
405
328
295
399
302
342
245
260
280
350
Saudi Arabia b
9,625
6,327
4,867
4,444
3,290
4,935
3,652
3,932
3,800
4,000
UAE
1,500
1,248
1,119
1,097
1,146
1,331
1,115
1,188
1,165
1,265
Venezuela
2,108
1,893
1,781
1,813
1,621
1,576
1,521
1,550
1,550
1,550
Communist countries
14,235
14,282
14,397
14,417
14,239
14,802
14,895
14,895
14,895
14,895
USSR
11,800
11,830
11,864
11,728
11,350
11,754
11,860
11,860
11,860
11,860
China
2,024
2,042
2,121
2,280
2,496
2,613
2,613
2,613
2,613
2,613
Other
411
410
412
409
393
435
422
422
422
422
a Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
c Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
 Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
United States a
16,058
15,296
15,231
15,726
15,726
16,281
16,382
16,721
15,965
16,501
15,978
Japan
4,444
4,204
4,193
4,349
4,123
4,205
4,688
4,924
4,626
3,869
3,507
West Germany
2,120
2,024
2,009
2,012
2,060
2,187
1,953
2,108
2,198
2,063
France
1,744
1,632
1,594
1,531
1,498
1,539
1,747
1,736
1,673
1,478
1,250
United Kingdom
1,325
1,345
1,290
1,624
1,402
1,382
1,364
1,396
1,363
1,310
Italy b
1,705
1,618
1,594
1,513
1,507
1,536
1,694
1,847
1,773
1,579
1,415
Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
b Principal products only prior to 1981.
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
United States
4,406
3,488
3,329
3,426
3,201
4,178
4,385
3,896
3,742
4,115
4,243
Japan
3,919
3,657
3,567
3,664
3,377
3,254
3,782
3,742
3,256
West Germany
1,591
1,451
1,307
1,335
1,284
1,331
1,307
1,339
1,115
1,309
France
1,804
1,596
1,429
1,395
1,476
1,385
1,750
1,461
1,077
1,139
1,189
United Kingdom
736
565
456
482
523
665
797
646
OPEC Average, 34.50 33.63 29.31 28.70 28.14 23.49 17.97 17.61 17.79 17.87
(Official Sales Price)
a F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most cases, for the producing company buy-back oil. Weighted by the volume
of production.
Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
 Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
 Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
Average Crude Oil Sales Price'
34.50 33.63
30.87 F,
29.3 28.70 27.16
15.35
The 1973 price is derived from posted prices; 1974-84 prices are derived
from OPEC official sales prices; and, beginning in 1985, prices are a
measure of average world sales prices.
Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
 Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8
Approved For Release 2011/09/28: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600230005-8