SALT PROSPECTS ENHANCED BY HEARINGS, BOTH SIDES FEEL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88-01315R000400360031-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 8, 2004
• Sequence Number: 31
• Publication Date: August 3, 1979
• Content Type: NSPR

THE WASHINGTON POST
3 August 1979
~ Enhanced
By Robert G. Kaiser
\Vaihinston Past Sca'f Writer
Four weeks of hearings on the new
strategic arms limitation treaty ap-
pear to have enhanced prospects for
eventual approval of SALT It, in the
view of many in the Senate on both
sides of the issue. But the treaty still
needs 67 votes, and its supporters con-
News Analysis
cede they still cannot see exactly
where they will come from.
A month ago, the treaty's supporters
anticipated the hearings with some
dread, but in fact the intervening time
has brought a number of surprises
that all seem to help their cause. Is-
sues that- once looked ominous have
been defused, and the debate about the
merits of the treaty document has
been largely supplanted by a debate
over American defense spending.
Even some of the treaty's opponents
acknowledge that the Senate now ap-
pears much more likely to Brant its
approval of SALT If.
"I smell ratification," one of the
Senate's best head-counters observed
-and this is a conservative who prob-
ably will vote against the treaty. `?I
wouldn't have said that five or six
weeks ago," he added.
In the highest reaches of the Carter
administration, these first weeks of
hearings have produced a sense of re-
lief and some optimism. "We still
have to get 67 votes," one senior offi-
cial observed, noting that the basic po-
litical challenge posed by the SALT
ratification fight remains to be met.
But, like others, this man believes
that the treaty is in far better shape
today than it was a month ago.
Just five weeks ago, Minority
Leader Howard H. Baker Jr. (R-Tenn.)
announced his strong opposition to
SALT II as submitted to the Senate.
Baker's statement alarmed the White
House and raised doubts about the
prospects for winning two-th,irds sup?
port for the treaty.
Fee
of SiIes
Baker was seen as a key figure five
weeks ago, but today in the Senate his
star seems to be on the wane, at least
in terms of the SALT debate. That is
one of the changes that have occurred
during the Senate hearings.
Baker tied his opposition to specific
treaty provisions, particularly the one
that would allow the Soviets to main-
tain 308 "heavy" supermissiles that
the United States could not match in
its arsenal.
But when the hearings began Baker
had trouble arguing his case against
the treaty. He was sharply rebutted
by. administration witnesses and fel-
have detracted from their impact in
the hearings. -
The Carter administration feared
that Sen. Henry M. Jackson (D-Wash.),
the dominant senator in the 1972 de-
bate on the first SALT agreements,
would have a bag-full of embarrassing
surprises when the Armed Services
Committee began . hearings last
month. Inrtead Jackson's points were
familiar and predictable, to the ad-
ministration's relief.
In private conversations this week,
senators of many different persua-
sions agreed_that one unforeseen fac-
tor has worked to SALT II's advan-
tage-the total absence of public in-
active participation in the Foreign
"There is absolutely no interest in
Relations Committee's hearings. The this issue in the country," one senior
leadership role he had hoped to play Democrat observed. "When Ygo home,
did not materialize.
no one talks about SALT."
A month ago "verification" looked
"The lack of public interest is unbe-
like a potentially decisive issue. The lievable," added a conservative. Re-
'to publican from the West. And both of
word refers to America's ability
.
monitor Soviet compliance with the them agreed that public indifference 1
detailed provisions of the treaty, and tends to help the-treaty's prospects.
for a time it looked as though the re- "This isn't like Panama at all," one
cent loss of spy stations in Iran might senator said, a comparison to the in-
lead
many senators to conclude that tense public sentiment that developed
the treaty could not be monitored. in many states against the Panama ,
Instead, Sen. Barry Goldwater (R- Canal treaties. Once the SALT II de-
Ariz.) has stated publicly that he - bate looked like something of a replay
thinks the verification problems are ,of the Panama, fight; now the parallel
manageable. Adm. Stansfield Turner
of the CIA has h erdened his support
for the verifiaoility of the treaty. The
issue still concerns some senators. ut
now seems unlikely to etermine
many-if anY-votes.
Opponents of SALT II were saying
privately in June that, when the hear-
seems less clear.
The emergence of the military
spending issue last week changed the
nature of the SALT II debate, and i
probably transformed it. Sen. Sam
Nunn (D-Ga.). set the new course, and
Henry A. Kissinger tacked his per-
sonal ship-of-state in the same direc-
tion. The specific terms of the treaty
and shortcomings in the treaty would are no longer in dispute for those who
be revealed. But this hasn't happened.
Instead the critics have complained
about alleged inequities in SALT II
that have been public knowledge for
months. Their very familiarity may
have taken this line; instead the ques- !
tion is whether the United States will
pursue an aggressive defense buildup
to match the Soviets in time for SALT
III. - _ -
- The sudden popularity of this ap- i
coN1~1_,D
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