VIENNA PARLEY MAY NOT ESCAPE LINKAGE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88-01315R000400370044-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 16, 2004
• Sequence Number: 44
• Publication Date: June 8, 1979
• Content Type: NSPR

Approved For ~ &ea /O11f~t s C R ,F 88-01315R000400370044-3
3. .. -...
By t.`(SRD MEY R
WASEIINGTON -- Alter condemning
"linkage" throughout the SALT I1
negotiations, President Carter will be
ironically obliged at the Vienna suum-
mit to warn Chairman Brezhnev that
Senate ratification of the treaty will
depend heavily on how the Soviets
behave over the next four months.
One big test of their behavior will be
Brezhnev's response to Carter's
request that the Soviets pose no
objections to flights by U-2 planes over
Turkey. The Turks say they will not
permit the flights unless. the Russians
concur. If _ U-2s cannot be used to
monitor Soviet missile testing, it seems
unlikely that 67 senators will vote for
the treaty.
Carter himself spelled out why these
flights are essential in a letter last
month to Turkish Prime Minister
Ecevit. The letter was leaked, and
senators like John, Glenn (D: Ohio)
mean to use it to insure that ratifica-
tion is made contingent on the over-
flights.
Carter's letter confirmed what has
been obvious to intelligence experts
since the American monitoring bases
in Iran were closed down. Line-of-sight
coverage of the launch phase of
Russian. ICBM'tests is' indispensable
for determining the weight and size of
the missile. Without this information,
the. limits set by SALT II cannot be
verfied.
Mountainous terrain. prevents this
coverage by the American ground
bases in Turkey, and a new satellite
surveillance system to recover the lost-
data,cannot be put into orbit until 1984:
U-2s based in Cyprus can be equipped
in one year to pick up these signals, but
they have to be able to fly close to the
Turkish-Russian border to insure cov-
erage.
Secretary of State Vance broached
the problem to Soviet Ambassador
Dobrynin two weeks ago. The only
subsequent hint of Soviet reaction has
been the statement of a Russian
official visitor to Turkey that Moscow
would welcome the Turks' refusal to
permit the ove-flights:
The subject will have to he raised by
Carter at Vienna with a warning that
Soviet obduracy will almost certainly
a test of Soviet intentions. They would
have Carter go further and warn
Brezhnev that if the Soviets persist in
their efforts to destabilize Turkey
politically, they will jeopardize the
prospects for ratification..
Turkish of ";icials suspect covert
Soviet funding channeled through the.
Eastern European intelligence services
has fueled the leftist demonstrations
and mounting terrorism.. Clandestine
broadcasts into Turkey:: from- East
Germany in the name of the illegal
Turkish Communist Party are calling
for mass protests against Turkey's
membership in NATO and for closing
down all American bases.
These inflammatory broadcasts have
been monitored and translated. After
the Iranian experience,- this hard evi- -
dance of Soviet destabilization tactics
against a NATO ally will be powerful
ammunition in the hands of a Senate
opponent of SALT. Some-Carter offi-
cials feel the Soviets should be bluntly
advised to terminate these broadcasts
if they seriously want a treaty.
The Soviet leaders are beginning to
show a dawning awarenes& that their
hopes for a treaty depend on how their
global. actions are judged by. 100 U.S.:
senators.. The Russians have grudg-
ingly released a few prominent dissi
dents, allowed increased Jewish emi
gration-and ended the barrage of
microwave radiation against the U.S.
embassy in Moscow..
White House aides who are counting
undecided votes in the Senate want
Carter to press Brezhnev in Vienna for
more substantial gestures:'-A? Soviet
decision not to veto the retention of the
U.N. emergency force in the Sinai, a
voluntary removal of idiG-23s from
Cuba, restraint in arming the Rhode-
sian guerrillas and the beginning of a
phased withdrawal of Cuban troops
prom Africa would do much to improve
the atmosphere. -
Most important, the Soviets will need
to avoid public boasting that they have
manipulated the SALT negotiating pro-'
cess to force a decisive change in the
world balance of power. Such a boast
appeared recently in a Soviet journal,
"Questions of History," where a senior
Soviet official gloated over the success
Amer c'an p }n capab Tiny 1 1"de~la ' ..e polit,ca~~ r' ?
be flatly unacceptable to many sena- this victory of the Soviet Union in the
tors. arras race .unleashed against it can
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