THE STATE OF THE SOVIET ECONOMY AND THE ROLE OF EAST-WEST TRADE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88B00443R001103890007-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 5, 2007
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: October 29, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/07/06: CIA-RDP88B00443RO01103890007-6 25X1
S The Director of Central Intellynce
i
_
W 1i non. D C. 70505 t_
C
[
~
/~
MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
The Vice President
Secretary of State
Secretary of Defense
Counsellor to the President
Chief of Staff to the President
Deputy Chief of Staff to the President
Assistant to the President for
National Security Affairs
SUBJECT: The State of the Soviet Economy and the Role
of East-West Trade
The attached CIA paper identifies Soviet economic problems and assesses
how economic pressures can be put on the Soviets. The Soviets now face serious
problems in almost every sector of their economy and their need for Western
goods will grow in the 1980s. What will contribute most to their ability to
maintain their military buildup are:
(1) Western plant and equipment to help on their severe productivity
problem;
(2) Western oil and gas equipment to find new resources;
(3) specialty steels and large diameter steel pipe, pipe laying machinery
and compressors which will help meet their energy problems and which, coupled
with the commitment of financing and gas markets from Western European nations,
will enable them to maintain their hard currency earnings; and
(4) food, especially grains and meat.
I have asked the Intelligence Community to develop, against the background
of this paper, a. national estimate on the impact of a coordinated COCOM effort to:
(a) make it as difficult as possible for the Soviets to continue to build
their military capability, and
(b) to pursue more aggressively the prevailing less sweeping policy of
depriving the Soviets of strategically valuable technology, thus forcing them to
do their own research and development.
William J. Casey /
Attachment:
NFAC/OSA Paper,
"The State of the Soviet
Economy and the Role of
East-West Trade"
V
ccroc-r
Approved For Release 2007/07/06: CIA-RDP88B00443RO01103890007-6
25X1
 Approved For Release 2007/07/06: CIA-RDP88B00443RO01103890007-6
Distribution
Cy Each Addressee
1 - DDCI w/Attachment
1 - NI0/USSR w/o Atch
1 - D/NFA w/o Atch
1 - Ch, NIC w/o Atch
1 - ER File
1 - DCI w/o Atch
1* ?
Approved For Release 2007/07/06: CIA-RDP88B00443RO01103890007-6