LONG RANGE ESTIMATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88B00443R001304040020-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 20
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/02/21: CIA-RDP88B00443RO01304040020-1
EXECUTIVE SECRETARIAT
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~ Approved For Release 2008/02/21: CIA-RDP88B00443RO01304040020-1
 Approved For Release 2008/02/21: CIA-RDP88B00443R001304040020-1
26 February 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
FROM: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Long Range Estimates
1. This note about Egypt's dependence on Ethiopia for water
twenty years out when its population reaches 70 million suggests to
me that we might develop an estimative or research project gathering
such long range problems as can be perceived now, i.e. water with
respect to Lebanon, Jordan and Israel, and probably a lot of other
countries, population as tipping the political balance in South Africa,
economic balance in Mexico, oil and mineral supply requirements as
altering the economic prospects in some countries for better and
others for worse, etc.
2. Side by side with this we should take a look at resource
availability and economic needs in economic depressed Third World
countries and how the application of Western technology and financial
guarantees would accelerate resource development and the meeting of
specified needs. The focus of this would be to point up opportunities
to utilize Western technology and financial strength to reverse the
downward economic spiral which threatens the Third World and also
our own financial structure. Both George Shultz and Don Regan, as
well as Helmut Schmidt in a speech last week, have expressed the need
to address the threat to the international financial structure by
promoting growth rather than imposing austerity. We should see what
we can do to pinpoint opportunities to and methods of shifting gears
in this way.
3. I attach one application of this concept suggested by a former
president of First National Bank of Chicago who is now President of
Occidental Petroleum.
William J. Casey
Attachment:
As stated
cc: NIO/Economics
Approved For Release 2008/02/21 CIA-RDP88B00443R001304040020-1