MEMO TO THE VICE PRESIDENT FROM WILLIAM J. CASEY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88B00443R001304040082-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 11, 2008
• Sequence Number: 82
• Publication Date: January 29, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/07/11: CIA-RDP88BOO443RO01304040082-3
The Dircctor of Central Intclligcnce
%%Sshingon. D C. 20505
29 January 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: The Vice President
Here are three papers which you may find useful both as background fbr
your discussions in Europe and for assessing moves the Soviets might make
and things you may hear during your trip.
The first lays out some scenarios on how the Soviets might try to impact
your trip and other developments leading up to the German election. It comes
from officers in our Soviet, European and Arms Control analytical groups.
The second deals with Soviet strategy to derail INF deployment. It
assesses Soviet purposes and lays out and projects negotiating strategy and
political strategy, as well as possible options and plans available to them
if the negotiations and political moves.fail. It reports much of what we have
been seeing and know about Soviet involvement in and financial support to
European peace groups. It speculates on Soviet positions and negotiations
through the balance of this year on the type of agreement Moscow might accept
and on available military and other options if their negotiations and political
moves fail. Finally, the last two pages lists the significant events and meet-
ings in Europe during 1983 which could provide opportunities for Soviet moves.
Thirdly, there is the draft of our estimate on the Soviet approach to
arms control which is ready to be brought to the NFIB for final action next
week or early the following week. This is the first Intelligence Community
estimate on Soviet arms control objectives since 1968. It's been a long hard
pull but I think it is now a realistic review of what can be learned from our
earlier negotiating experience and what the Soviets can now be judged to be
seeking in current negotiations.
If there are any significant changes in judgments while the estimate is
going through processing, I will see that word gets to you.
On that score we will be sendingh IFBIS
reporting on press and radio comment on your trip. We will similarly be
sending Marty Feldstein a separate cable covering new information which
comes along on Third World debt and other developments in the international
financial and economic situation.
William J. Casey
Attachments:
As stated
Approved For Release 2008/07/11: CIA-RDP88BOO443RO01304040082-3