LETTER TO THE HONORABLE LIONEL OLMER FROM WILLIAM J. CASEY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88B00443R001500080043-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2007
• Sequence Number: 43
• Publication Date: June 7, 1984
• Content Type: LETTER

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The Director of Central intelligence
Washinglun,12 C 20505
Dear Lionel,
Executive Registry
84. 2549
Here is something that you will find
interesting, particularly in the context of the
Bart Rowan column we talked about today.
It was good to see you.
Yours,
The Honorable Lionel Olmer
Under Secretary for
International Trade
Department of Commerce
Washington, D.C. 20230
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1. Inflation: The UK has enjoyed the biggest decline in its inflation
rate of any OECD country. The peak was 22% in early 1980 and it fell to under
4% in 1983. It is presently 5%.
2. The Budget Deficit (ratio of budget deficit to GDP): At 2.25%, it is
lower in the UK than in any other OECD economy.
3. Balance of Payments: The UK has had a current account surplus for
six out of the last seven years--accumulative surplus for the period is equal
to that of Japan.
4. Labor Costs: The rate of annual increase in labor costs per unit of
output fell from 22% in the second quarter of 1980 to 3% today.
5. Money Supply: The annual growth rate of money supply has slowed from
18% in 1980 to between 9 and 10% today. (A significant proportion of that
growth is bank lending to the private sector.)
6. Productivity: Annual productivity growth in the manufacturing sector
of the economy has been 6% since 1980. Productivity has increased 3% per
annum across the economy as a whole.
7. GDP Growth: 1980 - declined 2%
1981 - declined 2 1/2%
1982 - 2% growth
1983 - 3% growth
1984 - projected 3 1/2% growth
NOTE: UK has the best overall economic growth rate of all countries in the EC
and the best productivity growth rate in the OECD.
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THE JOURNAL OF COMMERCE, Monday, 21 May 1984
UK Business
Confidence
On Upswing.
By JANET PORTER
JourW Of conwrw o_ go"
LONDON - Business confidence
in Britain is booming and fears that
the economic recovery might prove
sbort-lived are now starting to
c+ecede.
Underpinned by consumer demand
for the past couple of years, the
upturn is now likely to receive
further impetus from the improve-
ment in world trading conditions,
suggesting that the current recovery
may be more durable than its prede-
ressors.
Evidence of this is clear from the
results of the latest Confederation of
British Industry trends survey, pub-
lished at the beginning of May, which
showed that the U.K's manufacturing
Industry was enjoying its most wide-
spread improvement in orders and
output for seven years.
Although a large number of com-
panies in Britain are still working at
well below full capacity, the latest
CBI quarterly survey was the fifth in
a row to find greater business opti-
mism, with British manufacturers
particularly positive about the out-
look for exports. There was a general
expectation that export orders will
continue to rise over the next four
months. -
What is-especially cheering is the
broad based nature of the upturn
across all industrial sectors for the
first time since recovery began more
than two years ago.
With other major European econo-
mies now starting to pick up, and the
U.S. economy still booming, the out-
look for British exports is looking
good. Stockbrokers Phillips and Drew
expect U.K exports to grow by 45 to
5 percent in volume terms this year
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and around 4 percent in 1985, com-
pared with a L5 percent rise in 1983.
. In particular, Britain Is mounting
a major new sales onslaught on its
largest overseas market, the United
States. Although non-oil exports to
the United States grew by 27 percent
(in sterling terms) last year, Britain's
share r.* U.S. imports fell from around
b percent to only about 4.6 percent in
1983. The U.K. is now determined to
regain this lost ground and is urging
British exporters to take a fresh look
at the market opportunities in the
United States, especially on the West
Coast
Despite Britain's substantial bal-
ance of payments current account
surplus last year of f2 billion, there
was a huge deterioration in the
country's non-oil account from a
deficit in 1982 of f22 billion to #7.5
billion last year. The country's oil
trade surplus isexpected to rise
slightly this year compared with last,
but tlpere is nevertheless concern
about the non-oil account In particu-
lar, tb- U.S. recorded a deficit in Its
manufactured trade last year, the
first for some 200 years.
This reflects, in part, the fact that
Britain's recovery began earlier than
elsewhere and was fueled by domes-
tic consumer demand rather than by
exports. The U.K. authorities are now
boping that the export drive in the
United States, coupled with improv-
ing demand for British goods from
other European countries as their
economies Improve, will stimulate
U.K. overseas trade and help sustain
the recovery.
Mcanwhile, improved business
confidence, helped in no small mea-
szue by the budget in March, has
encouraged investment intentions.
Phillips and Drew, for example, say
that prior to the budget they were
looking for a rise to manufacturing
investment of &6-7 percent in real
terms this year followed by a 15-4
percent advance next year. However,
because of the new tax measures, the
brokers are now forecasting an in-
creisse of 10-12 percent in 1984 and a
farther 6-8 percent in ).985.
The CBI survey concluded that the
volume of fixed investment would
rise by about 7 percent this year.
However, while a considerable Im-
provement on recent years, it would
only restore investment levels to
around 1982 levels, the CBI notes.
.Although now into its third year,
Britain's economic upturn so far has
been slow and shaky with many
British companies seeing Kittle evi-
dence of any real recovery. Although
still tentative in many sectors and
regions, the upturn does, at last, seem
to have taken a firm grip.
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