COMPARATIVE LOOK AT NATIONAL ESTIMATE PRODUCTION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88B00443R001704320051-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 30, 2010
• Sequence Number: 51
• Publication Date: June 11, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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Ex Live Secretary
11 Jun 85
3637 "081
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11 June 1985
MEMORANDUM FOR: Senior Review Panel Members
FROM: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Comparative Look at National Estimate Production
1. Let me first apologize for the delay in acknowledging your excellent
comparative look at national intelligence production. It is really a
first-class job. One reason I didn't respond earlier is that I had in
mind asking you to supplement your job by listing somehow among the
innovations new art forms that have stemmed out of the national estimating
process like:
-- Vulnerability study and others
they turn out in the NIC.
Evaluations of various scenarios for change which have been
done
2. Again, thanks for doing a good and important job so quickly and
well.
William J. Casey
Attachment:
Memo, dtd 5 June 85, from D/OGI,
SECRET
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0 5 JON 1985
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MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution List
narios of Dramatic Political
Change
1. This memorandum presents a number of ossible scenarios
that could lead to dramatic change It thus
complements Intelligence Community assessmen s and estimates that
focus on probable further developments The analysis,
purposely provocative, aims to make explicit and bring to the
forefront of our thinking the diversity of challenges that could
threaten the regime in the years to come. Because the analysis
out of context is susceptible to misunderstanding, external
distribution has been severely restricted. Please limit
circulation in your office and do not reproduce the document.
Your thoughts on the analysis and suggested indicators are
welcome.
2. We will send you similar papers on other countries as
they are completed.
Attachment:
Typescript onl I Scenarios of Dramatic
Political Change" (GI M 85-10153L)
WARNING NOTICE
INTELLIGENCE SOURCES
OF METHODS INVOLVED
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