AFRICA IN THE 1990S: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88B00443R001904420056-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 23, 2011
• Sequence Number: 56
• Publication Date: March 15, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

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ET
15 March 1986
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
FROM: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Africa in the 1990s: Implications for the United States
1. I think the paper on Africa in the 1990s is a very good piece of work.
2. I would consider breaking it into two separate papers issued in
succession to each other, one on sub-Saharan Africa and the other on South Africa.
They are really two separate problems and each would get more focus and attention
if they were separated.
3. I would review the sub-Saharan paper so as not to entirely exclude any
possibility of coping with the problem and even perhaps achieving some successes.
For example, is there a possibility of the kind of Soviet ouster or withdrawal
that occurred earlier in Egypt and Sudan? If not, the paper might state why not.
4. Also, I would like to see the paper address the prospects of limited
Western successes through a determined application of Western skills, technology,
resources and enterprise, particularly in countries where agricultural and
natural resource assets exist.
5. What is likely to develop from the growing informal economic sector
or, as they call it in Peru, the "second economy" which is said to be larger
than the legal economy there.
6. I agree with the note on page 30 which says that the comment there
is too simplistic.
7. The information on the drastic shift from a large preponderance of
economic aid in the 1960s to 3-to-1 military aid in the 1980s should be brought
up into the Key Judgments in order to get the attention of policymakers.
8. On the South Africa section, pencilled notes beginning "How will it
happen?" raise the question which might be addressed a little further. What
role will economic forces arising from changing demographics play? The note
on page 59 should be brought up front in addressing this question.
9. I also like the note on page 60 relating to how it will happen.
The paper might look at the Zimbabwe precedent, as well as Katanga, mentioned
in the note on page 60.
William J. Casey
SECRET
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18 February 1986
NOTE TO: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
1. Some months ago, the Directorate completed a three-year
research program on Africa. Drawing on all of that work (some 25
or so research papers), ALA has produced a major overview paper,
Africa in the 1990s: Implications for the United States. The
paper is in two parts, the first oSub-Saharan Africa generally,
and the second on South Africa.
2. This is a paper of great importance and I do not want to
issue it without your having read it. Let me give you two
extracts from the key judgments that will suggest to you both the
importance of the paper and its potential for controversy:
-- "Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s will face seemingly
insurmountable economic and political problems.
Enduring political instability characterized by coups
and insurgencies will produce ineffective governments
whose leaders are guided by xenophobic ideologies and
preoccupied with the near term struggle to stay in
power. Africa's intractable economic problems are
likley to worsen under weak political leadership that is
unable to take bold, effective measures-to manage the
region's crisis. Economic deterioration will persist
and Africa will face more food shortages, Western
disinvestment, falling production, and declines in the
standard of living."
-- "Dramatic political change is already taking place in
South Africa and by the end of this century we believe
the transition to black majority rule in Pretoria will
be well underway, if not complete."
The papers are well done and where there are diff s -- as
South Africa -- they are explicitly spelled out.
ET
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3. This paper will break rice bowls all over town. The
section on Sub-Saharan Africa will deeply offend AID, the State
Department, all liberals and probably a number of members of
Congress. The South African section will be disquieting to all
who read it. Because the conclusions are so stark and dismaying,
I intend to give the paper a relative1 limited circulation and
to use our numbered paper system.
4. I intend to hold publication until I hear from both of
you. I would welcome any comments or suggestions.
Robert . Gates
Deputy Director for Intelligence
Attachment:
As Stated
2
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 25X1
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25X1 Africa in the 1990s: Implications for the United States
An Intelligence Assessment
This paper incorporates information available as
of 18 February 1986.
This paper was prepared by
of the Office of
African and Latin American Analysis. Comments and queries are welcome and
25X1 should be addressed to the Chief, Africa Division,
25X1FTSanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/23: CIA-RDP88B00443R001904420056-4