COMPUTER PANEL REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88G00186R000901080020-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 16, 2010
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: February 21, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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2 1 FEB 1985
MEMDRANDUAM FOR: Harry E. Fitzwater
Deputy Director for Administration
SUBJECT' : Canpu ter Panel Report
1. The Computer Study Panel looked, as you know, only at the
computer space occupied by the former Office of Data Processing. In
examining the present and planned space occupation options, the Panel
accepted the basic assumptions presented by the then Office of Data
Processing. The substantive findings of the Panel were that retention
of any computer space in the present Headquarters building would be of
no value. An additional finding was that under present planning, growth
requirements for computer-grade space could be satisfied until 1995, but
only by displacing personnel. The most critical, and driving, finding
is that any measure can serve only to slow the growth rate. That is,
like Boyles Law, computers will expand to fill any available space
because as the population becomes more skilled at using such computers,
the population demands for even greater capabilities increase. Of
course, a discussion of possibilities of splitting computer capabilities
provides the benefits of dual capabilities or a built-in backup.
2. The historical trends of the management of information resources
have been to follow the oath of least resistance -- laissez faire. Like
other institutions, CIA entered the computer world as a means of
speeding transactions, using batch processing with an extremely low
requirement for any form of interaction. As the demands upon batch
processing increased, it was easy to associate another computer with the
existing facilities. Terminals were relatively few and the data
processing network was skeleton-like, accordingly. Control of the
utilization of the resources was not the critical factor. Basically,
any problems could be overcome by throwing new hardware at it. As
hardware costs fell, this type of solution became even easier of
attainment. Consequently, there was little reason to impose any control
over the use of the computer system. While a great deal of attention
was paid to the acquisition of hardware because this process used dollar
resources, little attention was paid to the number of users, the
requirement for direct access storage, or the ultimate implications in
terms of terminals and utilities.
3. That world has changed. Information remains the primary
commodity of this Agency. Everybody wants access to it, everybody wants
to exchange information, and no one wants to let go of it. We are
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literally at a stage where every employee can have access to an
information processing terminal. Not only has population changed, but
the method of using information has changed. The great bulk of our
usage is now between 8 to 5, in interactive modes. We have also made
systems such as SAFE available to large numbers of users at relative
facility, and utility of such systems have served only to accelerate the
growth curve. The slope of the curve for DASD shown in figures 1, 2,
and 3 of the reports are symptomatic of a growth curve reaching to
infinity.
4. Management controls have not worked in this Agency because they
have never been effectively applied. In private industry, the use of
information is of pecuniary value to the organization. It can create
profits or losses. All organizations in private industry have sane type
of management of this increasingly critical resource. Faced with an
unending growth pattern, it does not seem appropriate to dismiss
management controls out of hand. A combination of exploiting the
technological and management controls can serve to limit the growth of
information storage, particularly, to that which is consistent with
Agency objectives.
5. The implications contained in the Study Panel itself are that
the Agency is prepared to change its philosophy with regards to computer
operations. In the past, computers have increased at the central
facility. Personnel have been disbursed to accommodate the new need for
computer space. The implications are that the reverse will take place;
that computers, except for a kernel, will disburse and people will
stay. If we do have to expand the Agency population, we again would be
confronted with moving people. The implied accepted trade off for
moving people is an increase in security vulnerability. Protecting two
computer centers is on the face of it more complex and expensive than
protecting one. Increasing the capabilities to deal with the security
problem can be at hand. Likewise, the technical capability to
canmunicate at appropriate speed between computer centers or directly
from remote computers to users does exist. It would seem axianatic that
the shorter the communication path, the fewer the complexities and the
less the dependency upon the communication technology.
6. The rate of change in both the communication technology and data
processing technology is decreasing. The number of circuits that could
be put on a chip initially changed at a rate of about ten to the sixth
every two years. It is now at about ten squared and shortly will be at
a factor of ten. While change will continue to take place in the
technology, the rate of change as measured by the basic technical
capabilities, that is chip loading, head gap distances, and information
density will begin to flatten out within the present technology. While
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research continues to go on, the best likelihood for technological
change is represented by the replacement of silicon chips by gallium
arsenide and the effective development of read and write optical disks.
The former will bring about sane reduction in the size of mainframes,
but that is not a critical area. The latter, coupled with the increase
in magnetic density should increase storage capacity by a factor of
about 15. The foregoing suggests that the recommendations of the Study
Panel are based upon reasonable expectations and are durable and also
echoes the Study Panel in postulating that technology, whether applied
near at hand or remotely, will not solve the problem of growth.
7. In considering the likelihood of implementation of general
tenor, the local political situation with regards to additional
buildings on the compound must be considered in face of the extreme
sensitivity of the McLean Citizens Association, coupled with security
disadvantages of putting a new computer center in the same location as
the old, it is easy to agree with the Study Panel's recommendation of a
remote location. On the other hand, the bulk of the people involved
live in Nothern Virginia and Maryland. A distance could cause the loss
of upward of 30% of the work force. Therefore, it would seem logical
that the move be distant, but not too distant; close, but not too
close. A further complication is the judgment as to how much money can
be acquired for this purpose. We have a lame duck administration which
reduces the leverage of Congress; a relatively unorganized Congress
which finds itself only 18 months abaay from the next Congressional
election, an expanding deficit and national debt, both of which cry for
expenditure reduction. This political factor suggests that we would be
hard put to cane up with the capitalization needs for a new building.
8. I would conclude that the thrust of the recommendations
contained in paragraph 6.2, page 20, of the Panel Report are reasonable
and form the basis for developing a detailed plan. To those
recommendations, I would add the following:
a. That management controls, possibly volume cap, be placed on
the use of computer resources, especially D7SD.
b. That we actively explore leasing a building in the Route 123
- Route 7 vicinity to accommodate the disbursed location. Leasing
is suggested on the premise that the annual budget increment will be
more acceptable to Congress than a major capitalization
expenditure. The suggested geographic location should minimize loss
of personnel.
c. That the Agency aggressively pursue technology as an
assistance in limiting the growth of computer facilities.
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d. That Agency management articulate the goals that it has for
information resource management and the purpose and intents for the
establishment of information resource networks and facilities.
Attachment
Report of the Computer Study Panel
1985
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