REMARKS OF WILLIAM J. CASEY

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CIA-RDP88G01116R001202400005-8
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RIFPUB
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K
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15
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December 22, 2016
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October 15, 2010
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5
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Publication Date: 
March 21, 1986
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MISC
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Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 REMARKS OF WILLIAM J. CASEY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AT THE NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY ARMED FORCES STAFF COLLEGE NORFOLK, VIRGINIA FRIDAY, 21 MARCH 1986 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 Executive Registry 86~4 104--12 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 MY SUBJECT TODAY IS THE STRATEGIC BALANCE BETWEEN THE SOVIET BLOC AND THE WESTERN ALLIANCE AND HOW IT HAS BOTH BEEN TAKING ON NEW DIMENSIONS AND SERIOUSLY ERODING. FROM THE BEGINNING, THE SOVIETS HAD DOMINANCE IN LAND WARFARE. THIS WAS COUNTERED BY OUR SUPERIORITY IN STRATEGIC FORCES. BY 1980, THE SOVIET STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE FORCES HAD CAUGHT UP AND, IN MANY KEY AREAS, SURPASSED OURS. EVER SINCE 1980, THE UNITED STATES HAS ACTED TO MODERNIZE ITS STRATEGIC FORCES; THE SOVIETS HAVE BEEN DOING MORE. FOR EXAMPLE, THE SOVIETS ARE NOW PROTECTING THEIR LAND MISSILE FORCE BY MAKING MUCH OF IT MOBILE, WHEREAS THE U.S. MOBILE ICBM WILL NOT BE DEPLOYED UNTIL THE 1990s. PERHAPS MOST ALARMING, THE SOVIETS HAVE INVESTED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 YEARS OF RESEARCH ON THEIR STRATEGIC DEFENSES-- SOMETHING WE HAVE IGNORED TO OUR PERIL. AS YOU KNOW, THEY HAVE COMPLETED A BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM AROUND MOSCOW. WE HAVE NO COMPARABLE SYSTEM. DESPITE THIS FEVERISH EFFORT TO BUILD THEIR OWN STRATEGIC DEFENSES, THE SOVIETS LOUDLY BEAT THE PROPAGANDA DRUM IN AN EFFORT TO SCUTTLE THE PRESIDENT'S EFFORT TO BUILD A CREDIBLE STRATEGIC DEFENSE OF OUR OWN. Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 EVEN AT A TIME OF ECONOMIC DIFFICULTY AND A REORDERING OF DOMESTIC PRIORITIES, SOVIET DEFENSE PROGRAMS HAVE BEEN PROTECTED. INDEED, THE CURRENT HIGH LEVEL OF MILITARY SPENDING WILL CONTINUE TO GROW. DESPITE OUR OWN INCREASES IN DEFENSE SPENDING OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS, THE UNITED STATES HAS ONLY RECENTLY BEGUN TO CATCH UP WITH SOVIET WEAPONS ACQUISITION PROGRAMS. NOW, THIS HUGE MILITARY FORCE MAY NEVER BE USED AGAINST THE. UNITED STATES OR ITS NATO ALLIES. THE LARGER THREAT MAY LIE ELSEWHERE. THE SOVIETS' MASSIVE NUCLEAR AND CONVENTIONAL FORCES MAY BE ONLY A SHIELD FOR MOTHER RUSSIA, MAKING IT EASIER AND LESS RISKY FOR THE SOVIETS TO INTIMIDATE WEAKER GOVERNMENTS AND TO GOBBLE UP PIECES OF TERRITORY AROUND THE GLOBE. THE SOVIETS HAVE ACQUIRED BRIDGEHEADS IN CUBA AND VIETNAM, AND CLIENT STATES IN SOUTH YEMEN, ETHIOPIA, ANGOLA, KAMPUCHEA, NICARAGUA, AND AFGHANISTAN. SINCE COMING TO POWER A YEAR AGO, SOVIET PARTY LEADER GORBACHEV HAS MOVED STRONGLY TO STRENGTHEN THE SOVIET HOLD ON THESE COUNTRIES WHICH ARE LOCATED EITHER NEAR STRATEGIC CHOKE POINTS OR IN AREAS OF ALMOST CERTAIN REGIONAL CONFLICT. THEY ARE BEING LINKED, MOREOVER, IN A GROWING LOGISTIC AND MUTUAL SUPPORT NETWORK THAT DEPENDS ON EXPANDING SOVIET NAVAL AND AIR POWER. 2 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 TAKE, FOR EXAMPLE, THE SOVIET POSITION IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE SOVIETS HAVE CREATED IN CUBA THE STRONGEST MILITARY FORCE IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE; WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR OWN. OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS THEY HAVE GIVEN CUBA MASSIVE INFUSIONS OF MIG-23 AIRCRAFT, T-62 TANKS, ARTILLERY PIECES AND MULTIPLE ROCKET LAUNCH SYSTEMS, INFANTRY COMBAT VEHICLES, ANTI-AIRCRAFT GUNS, HELICOPTER GUNSHIPS, SA-2 AND SA-6 SURFACE-TO-AIR MISSILES, FAST TORPEDO AND MISSILE ATTACK BOATS AND FOXTROT-CLASS SUBMARINES. THE SOVIETS THEMSELVES HAVE AT THEIR OWN MILITARY BASES IN CUBA 4,500 SOVIET TROOPS AND ADVISORS AND THE LARGEST INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION AND ELECTRONIC MONITORING CAPABILITY OUTSIDE THE SOVIET UNION. TODAY, WE HAVE AN EXTENSION OF THIS BASE ON THE AMERICAN MAINLAND IN NICARAGUA. EVEN NOW, CUBAN CONSTRUCTION CREWS ARE COMPLETING, OUTSIDE MANAGUA, THE LARGEST MILITARY AIRBASE IN CENTRAL AMERICA. WHEN FINISHED, IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF ACCOMMODATING SOVIET JET FIGHTERS, HEAVY TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT, AND TU-95 BOMBERS. SOVIET RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NOW ROUTINELY FLY FROM THE KOLA PENINSULA IN THE SOVIET ARCTIC TO CUBAN AIRFIELDS AND ON TO ANGOLA. WHEN THE NEW FIELD IS OPERATIONAL, THE SOVIETS WILL BE ABLE TO FLY FROM THE SOVIET HOMELAND TO NICARAGUA, REFUEL THERE, AND CONTINUE BY WAY OF THE PACIFIC TO AIR BASES IN THE SOVIET FAR EAST. 3 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 IN ADDITION, THE ALREADY SHORT, DIRECT SEA CONNECTION BETWEEN CUBA AND NICARAGUA WILL BE MADE EVEN SHORTER NEXT YEAR WHEN THE BULGARIANS COMPLETE A MAJOR PORT FACILITY ON THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA. NOW IF THIS WERE USED ONLY FOR NICARAGUAN EXPORTS, THAT WOULD BE FINE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE EXISTING PORT IS USED FOR WHOLESALE IMPORTATION OF SOVIET WEAPONS. THE NEW PORT WILL SIMPLY MAKE THEIR TRANSSHIPMENT FROM CUBA ALL THE MORE EFFICIENT. SIMILAR LINKS AND COMPONENTS OF THIS NETWORK HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED AROUND THE GLOBE. FROM ANGOLA, SOVIET NAVAL AND AIR FORCES NOW ROUTINELY OPERATE ASTRIDE WESTERN SHIPPING LANES IN THE ATLANTIC. THESE FORCES DEPEND ON A GROWING WEST AFRICAN MARXIST BASE MANNED AND PROTECTED BY NEARLY 2,000 SOVIET BLOC ADVISORS, 35,000 CUBAN TROOPS, AND A LOCAL ANGOLAN GOVERNMENT ARMY OF 100,000. THE MEDITERRANEAN SEGMENT OF THIS SOVIET GLOBAL NETWORK IS ANCHORED AT LIBYA AND SYRIA. SOME 6,000 SOVIET BLOC ADVISORS AID THESE COUNTRIES. THEIR PRESENCE MAKES ACHIEVEMENT OF A LASTING PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST LESS LIKELY, AND THEY ALSO PROVIDE THE "GROUND CREWS" FOR RAPID EXPANSION OF SOVIET MILITARY POWER IN THE REGION. SIMILARLY, THIS NETWORK THREATENS WESTERN SEA LANES IN THE RED SEA, ARABIAN SEA, AND INDIAN OCEAN FROM BASES IN ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH YEMEN. BASE RIGHTS IN THESE AND SOME OTHER COUNTRIES ENABLE THE SOVIETS TO OPERATE THEIR NAVAL FORCES OVER EXTENDED PERIODS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. 4 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 FINALLY, SOVIET NAVAL AND AIR FORCES OPERATING OUT OF OUR FORMER BASES AT CAM RANH BAY AND DA NANG IN VIETNAM COMMAND THE VITAL SEA LANES LINKING JAPAN, TAIWAN AND SOUTH KOREA WITH MIDDLE EAST OIL SUPPLIES AND SOUTHEAST ASIAN ALLIES. THESE BASES PERMIT THE SOVIETS TO OPERATE ROUTINELY FROM NAVAL AND AIR BASES IN THE SOVIET FAR EAST DOWN THE CHINA COAST AND THREATEN CLARK FIELD AND SUBIC BAY IN THE PHILIPPINES, WHICH ARE CRITICAL TO THE DEFENSE OF OUR FRIENDS AND ALLIES THROUGHOUT THE PACIFIC. NOW, THE WEST COULD COPE IF THE SOVIETS WERE MERELY INTERESTED IN ACQUIRING OVERSEAS MILITARY BASES AND COLONIES. BUT THE SOVIETS SHOW NO INTENTION OF STOPPING THERE. THESE BRIDGEHEADS ARE BEING USED TO SPREAD SUBVERSION, TERROR, AND DESTABILIZATION, AND SPAWN NEW BRIDGEHEADS IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES. FROM NICARAGUA, TERRORISM AND SUBVERSION ARE BEING EXPORTED THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO CHILE, COLOMBIA AND ELSEWHERE IN LATIN AMERICA. THE NICARAGUANS HAVE PROVIDED SAFEHAVEN AND TRAINING TO SEVERAL LATIN AMERICAN GUERRILLA GROUPS. NICARAGUA HAS ALSO SERVED AS A TRANSFER POINT FOR DRUG TRAFFIC EN ROUTE TO THE U.S. FROM LIBYA, THERE IS INVASION OF CHAD, ATTEMPTS AT DESTABILIZING GOVERNMENTS IN EGYPT AND TUNISIA, ZAIRE AND SUDAN, AND SUBVERSION THROUGHOUT WEST AFRICA. FROM ANGOLA, THERE ARE INTRUSIONS INTO ZAIRE. FROM SOVIET-OCCUPIED AFGHANISTAN, THERE HAVE BEEN 5 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 ARMED INTRUSIONS INTO PAKISTAN AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN IRAN. SINCE 1964, NORTH KOREA HAS BEEN DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN SUBVERSION AND TERRORISM IN AT LEAST TWENTY-EIGHT COUNTRIES. THEY ARE KNOWN TO HAVE PROVIDED GUERRILLA TRAINING TO GROUPS IN FORTY-TWO COUNTRIES, WHILE SUPPLYING ARMS AND FUNDING TO TERRORISTS IN THIRTY-THREE COUNTRIES. NORTH KOREA IS ALSO KNOWN TO HAVE SMUGGLED DRUGS AND CONTRABAND, KIDNAPPED AND ASSASSINATED SOUTH KOREAN OFFICIALS, AND ILLEGALLY ACQUIRED ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY. THE SOVIETS AND THEIR FRIENDS HAVE DISCOVERED IN TERRORISM A LOW-COST, LOW-RISK MEANS OF ATTACKING DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENTS IN EUROPE, THE MIDDLE EAST, AND LATIN AMERICA. UNFORTUNATELY, SOME VICTIM NATIONS, PARTICULARLY IN EUROPE, HAVE BEEN NOTICEABLY RELUCTANT TO PUNISH THOSE WHO TERRORIZE THEIR LAND AND PEOPLE. THE MAJOR TERRORIST STRIKES OF 1985 MAY SEEM DIVERSE, IN TERMS BOTH OF LOCATION AND STATED OBJECTIVES. BUT THERE ARE TWO COMMON THREADS: 1. THE ATTACKS WERE DIRECTED AGAINST WESTERN (OR PRO-WESTERN) TARGETS. THE SOLE EXCEPTION WAS THE KIDNAPPING OF FOUR SOVIET EMBASSY OFFICIALS IN BEIRUT BY AN OBSCURE SUNNI MOSLEM GROUP. THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE ABDUCTIONS REMAIN MURKY. IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT THANKS TO PROMPT INTERVENTION BY SYRIAN AND IRANIAN INTELLIGENCE, THE PRIME SPONSORS OF LEBANESE TERRORISM, THE THREE SURVIVING SOVIETS WERE SOON FREED. THIS CONTRASTS WITH THE LONG AGONY OF THE SIX U.S. HOSTAGES IN THE HANDS OF THE ISLAMIC JIHAD IN THE BEKAA VALLEY. 6 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 2. THE MAJOR TERRORIST STRIKES INVOLVED AN ELABORATE SUPPORT APPARATUS, AND MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS INFRASTRUCTURE WERE THE SOVIET BLOC AND ITS REGIONAL SATELLITES AND SUBCONTRACTORS. THE LIST INCLUDES BULGARIA, CUBA, CZECHOSLOVAKIA, EAST GERMANY, LIBYA, NICARAGUA, NORTH KOREA AND SYRIA. WE BELIEVE THAT THE SECRET SERVICES OF MANY OF THESE COUNTRIES ARE INVOLVED IN THE SELECTION OF TERRORIST TARGETS. TERRORISM TODAY IS AN INTEGRAL PART OF THE FOREIGN POLICY AND DEFENSE APPARATUS OF SOME STATES. LIBYA, IRAN AND NICARAGUA, FOR EXAMPLE, HAVE THREATENED WAVES OF TERRORIST ATTACKS IN THE EVENT THE U.S. OR OTHER WESTERN NATIONS TAKE MILITARY ACTION AGAINST THEM. WE FACE A "RADICAL ENTENTE" CONSISTING OF IRAN, LIBYA, NORTH KOREA, CUBA, AND SYRIA, ALL SEEKING TO UNDERMINE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES IN MANY PARTS OF THE GLOBE. SPOKESMEN FOR THE TEHERAN REGIME HAVE EXPRESSED APPROVAL OF THE MASSACRES AT ROME AND VIENNA AIRPORTS, AND PLEDGED FULL SUPPORT FOR LIBYAN DICTATOR QADHAFI, THE SPONSOR OF THE ATTACKS, IN THE FACE OF THREATENED U.S. REPRISALS. THIS GIVES A SHARPER EDGE TO QADHAFI'S RECENT THREATS TO SEND ASSASSINS AND SUICIDE BOMBERS TO THE UNITED STATES, SINCE THE IRANIAN PRESENCE IN NORTH AMERICA IS CONSIDERABLY LARGER THAN THAT OF THE LIBYANS. 7 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 WE SEE ENHANCED COOPERATION BETWEEN EUROPEAN TERRORIST GROUPS TARGETING NATO INSTALLATIONS. WESTERN SECURITY OFFICIALS ARE GROWING CONCERNED THAT ARMENIAN TERRORIST NETWORKS MAY BE MOBILIZED IN A NEW WAVE OF ATTACKS ON U.S., NATO AND ISRAELI TARGETS AS WELL AS THE ARMENIAN UNDERGROUND'S TRADITIONAL ENEMY, TURKEY. ARMENIAN TERRORISTS ARE CURRENTLY RECEIVING TRAINING AND OTHER SUPPORT AT FACILITIES IN IRAN, SYRIA AND IN THE SYRIAN-OCCUPIED BEKAA VALLEY IN LEBANON. IN THE RECENT PAST, THE ARMENIAN GROUPS WERE TRAINED IN LEBANON AND SOUTH YEMEN BY FACTIONS OF THE PALESTINE LIBERATION ORGANIZATION. TODAY WE ARE SEEING GROWING PLO SUPPORT OF HIZBALLAH TERRORISTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. ONE OF THE MOST DIFFICULT TASKS FOR INTELLIGENCE IN THE YEARS AHEAD WILL BE TO PENETRATE THE SMALL, FANATICAL GROUPS WHICH CARRY OUT THE CRIMINAL ACTS OF MURDER, ROBBERY, BOMBING AND KIDNAPPING. THESE GROUPS ARE UTTERLY WITHOUT MORAL RESTRAINT, AND HOLD INNOCENT PEOPLE IN COMPLETE CONTEMPT. YET ANOTHER WORRISOME PROBLEM FOR THE U.S. GOVERNMENT IS THE SPREAD OF SMALL WARS, MANY OF WHICH ARE WAGED BY PROXY. THERE ARE PRESENTLY FORTY-TWO CONFLICTS THAT INVOLVE SOME FOUR MILLION PEOPLE IN WARS, REBELLIONS, OR UPRISINGS. FEW OF THESE CONFLICTS HAVE BEEN FORMALLY DECLARED. THIS AMBIGUITY ABOUT HOSTILITIES PLACES A SPECIAL PREMIUM ON EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE. 8 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 THE SOVIET UNION HAS PRESSED TO THE HILT ITS USE OF PROXY NATIONS TO CARRY OUT ITS WARS ABROAD. IT IS PERFECTLY CONTENT TO RELY ON OUR FEAR OF WIDER--ESPECIALLY, NUCLEAR--WAR TO KEEP US LARGELY PARALYZED. TO FURTHER TILT THE BALANCE AGAINST THE WEST, THE SOVIETS ARE NOW SPENDING $4 BILLION A YEAR IN CUBA, $1 BILLION A YEAR IN ANGOLA, SEVERAL HUNDRED MILLION IN NICARAGUA, $4 BILLION A YEAR IN AFGHANISTAN, AND MORE THAN ANOTHER BILLION IN VIETNAM. THIS EFFORT IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A FLOOD OF WEAPONS THAT POURS OUT OF THE GREAT ARMS DEPOT AT NIKOLAYEV ON THE BLACK SEA TO PRO-SOVIET REGIMES AND INSURGENT GROUPS ALL OVER THE WORLD. WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO PREVENT THIS SOVIET TEN BILLION DOLLAR ANNUAL INVESTMENT FROM PRODUCING EVEN MORE HOSTILE BASES AND ERODING THE STRATEGIC BALANCE EVEN MORE RAPIDLY? DURING THE 1960s AND 1970s, PEOPLE IN MANY PARTS OF THE WORLD WERE FLOCKING TO JOIN COMMUNIST INSURGENCIES. IN THE 1980s, THIS TREND HAS REVERSED. TODAY, SOME HALF MILLION PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD ARE FIGHTING IN RESISTANCE MOVEMENTS AGAINST COMMUNIST REGIMES OR COMMUNIST OCCUPATION. AFGHANISTAN IS VIRTUALLY A NATION-IN-ARMS FIGHTING AGAINST 120,000 SOVIET OCCUPATION TROOPS. IN ANGOLA, SAVIMBI HAS SOME 60,000 FIGHTERS IN ALL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BATTLING THE CUBANS, MARXIST ANGOLANS, 9 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 AND SOVIET ADVISORS. IN ETHIOPIA, ERITREAN AND TIGREAN REBELS FIGHT THE MARXIST MENGISTU GOVERNMENT AND THE LARGEST ARMY IN AFRICA WITH ITS CUBAN AND SOVIET ADVISORS. IN KAMPUCHEA, 50,000 INSURGENTS STRUGGLE BITTERLY WITH 170,000 OCCUPYING VIETNAMESE SOLDIERS. IN MARXIST NICARAGUA, 20,000 RESISTANCE FIGHTERS--MOST OF THEM CAMPESINOS DRIVEN FROM THEIR HOMES BY THE REGIME--ARE HOLDING THEIR OWN AGAINST 120,000 SANDINISTA TROOPS AND MILITIA ARMED WITH THE LATEST SOVIET ASSAULT HELICOPTERS AND TANKS. MORE IMPORTANTLY, OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS DEMOCRACY HAS TAKEN HOLD OR MADE GREAT PROGRESS IN EL SALVADOR, HONDURAS, GUATEMALA, ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, PAKISTAN AND OTHER COUNTRIES. JUST THIS YEAR,-ONE-MAN RULE IN HAITI AND THE PHILIPPINES HAS BEEN REPLACED BY GOVERNMENTS COMMITTED TO A DEMOCRATIC FUTURE. WE CAN PARTICULARLY REJOICE AT THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHILIPPINES WHERE THE WHOLE NATION TOOK PART IN AN ELECTION--QUITE FREE, THOUGH MARRED BY FRAUD--IN WHICH LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE USED NON-VIOLENT POPULAR EXPRESSION TO FREE THEMSELVES OF TWO DECADES OF MARTIAL LAW. NOW WE MUST HELP HAITI RESIST CUBAN SUBVERSION AND THE AQUINO GOVERNMENT DEAL WITH A SAGGING ECONOMY AND COMMUNIST INSURGENCY IN THE PHILIPPINES. 10 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 DESPITE THESE VALIANT EFFORTS TO SHAKE OFF THE SOVIET YOKE, THE OUTCOME OF MANY LIBERATION STRUGGLES IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. THE SOVIETS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REACT VIOLENTLY TO INSURGENCY, POPULAR REBELLION, OR EVEN ATTEMPTS BY LESSER MARXIST GOVERNMENTS TO LIBERALIZE THEIR REGIMES. DURING THE BREZHNEV ERA, THE SOVIETS ANNOUNCED THE SO-CALLED BREZHNEV DOCTRINE WHICH SAYS, IN EFFECT, "ONCE COMMUNIST, ALWAYS COMMUNIST." THERE IS EVERY INDICATION THAT--DESPITE HIS SMILES AND SMOOTH MANNER--GORBACHEV WILL APPLY THAT DOCTRINE WITH RENEWED VIGOR. NOW THIS IS NOT NEW. DURING THE 1950s AND 60s THE SOVIETS INSTALLED WHOMEVER THEY PLEASED AS LEADERS IN EASTERN EUROPE. YOU MAY RECALL THEIR VIOLENT REMOVAL OF ALEXANDER DUBCEK AND INSTALLMENT OF THE PUPPET HUSAK REGIME IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA IN 1968. THE SOVIET APPARATUS ALSO REMOVED--AND MURDERED--TWO PUPPET PRESIDENTS IN AFGHANISTAN IN 1979, AS WELL AS BISHOP IN GRENADA IN 1982. IN JANUARY OF THIS YEAR, HARDLINE PRO-SOVIET ELEMENTS IN THE SOUTH YEMEN GOVERNMENT INITIATED A COUP AGAINST PRESIDENT ALI NASSER. THE COUP SOON ESCALATED INTO A BLOODY CIVIL WAR BETWEEN MILITARY AND TRIBAL ELEMENTS LOYAL TO ALI NASSER AND THOSE OF THE HARDLINE PRO-SOVIET CAMP. AFTER WATCHING THE BLOOD FLOW FOR A FEW DAYS, THE SOVIETS THREW THEIR UNRESERVED SUPPORT TO THE PRO-SOVIET YEMENI VICE PRESIDENT, THEN IN MOSCOW, WHO WAS SPEEDILY CONFIRMED BY THE YEMENI POLITBURO AS THE NEW 11 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 PRESIDENT. SOVIET PLANES POUNDED PRO-GOVERNMENT FORCES AND SOVIET WEAPONS WERE IMMEDIATELY FLOWN TO REBEL FORCES. THE MESSAGE IN ALL THESE CASES IS CLEAR: LEADERS OF GOVERNMENTS INSTALLED BY MOSCOW WHO SEEK IMPROVED RELATIONS WITH THE WEST DO SO AT THEIR PERIL. THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR THAT THE SOVIETS WILL BROOK NO CHALLENGES IN ANY PART OF THEIR EMPIRE. THE BRUTALITY OF THE COMMUNIST REGIMES AGAINST WHICH MANY PEOPLES HAVE RISEN HAS ALREADY DRIVEN MILLIONS OF THEIR FELLOW COUNTRYMEN INTO EXILE. OUR FAILURE TO SUPPORT THEIR STRUGGLES WILL SEND MILLIONS MORE OUR WAY. WE SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY FORGOTTEN THE TRAGIC EXPERIENCE OF THE "BOAT PEOPLE" FROM VIETNAM AND KAMPUCHEA. COMMUNIST-INITIATED VIOLENCE AROUND THE WORLD HAS RESULTED IN THOUSANDS OF DEATHS ATTRIBUTABLE DIRECTLY TO ATTACKS OR TO PLAIN MURDER BY OCCUPATION FORCES.. THOUSANDS MORE HAVE DIED OF STARVATION, DISEASE, OR EXPOSURE. AND MILLIONS HAVE BEEN MADE REFUGEES. IN AFGHANISTAN, FOR EXAMPLE, FULLY ONE QUARTER OF THE PRE-WAR POPULATION--NEARLY FOUR MILLION PEOPLE--HAS FLED FROM THE TERRORS OF SOVIET OCCUPATION. IN CENTRAL AMERICA, THE STORY IS THE SAME. THOUSANDS HAVE BEEN KILLED OR EXECUTED BY THE SANDINISTAS AND THE SALVADORAN COMMUNISTS, AND FULLY A QUARTER OF A MILLION PEOPLE MADE REFUGEES. IN ETHIOPIA, THE MARXIST GOVERNMENT HAS SQUANDERED ITS MEAGER FINANCIAL RESOURCES ON BUYING SOVIET WEAPONS WHILE VIRTUALLY IGNORING THE AGONIZING FAMINE THAT HAS KILLED THOUSANDS OF ITS PEOPLE. 12 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 ETHIOPIA'S ONLY RESPONSE HAS BEEN TO FORCE-MARCH OTHER THOUSANDS FROM THEIR HOMES IN THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN NORTH TO ILL-PREPARED CAMPS IN THE SOUTH. THE PLIGHT OF KAMPUCHEA IS UNBELIEVABLE. IN FIVE YEARS, IT IS ESTIMATED THAT YET ANOTHER MILLION KAMPUCHEANS HAVE BEEN KILLED, DIED OF MALNUTRITION, OR FLED FROM THE RAPACIOUS VIETNAMESE OCCUPATION. IN THE PAST, THE U.S. GOVERNMENT DEALT WITH ALL OF THESE ISSUES AS SEPARATE PROBLEMS. THE GROWING AWARENESS THAT ALL OF THESE ARE INTERDEPENDENT, AND THAT THEY THREATEN THE NATIONAL SECURITY IN A COORDINATED WAY ACROSS A BROAD FRONT, IS CHANGING THE WAY THE ADMINISTRATION ADDRESSES THESE ISSUES. EACH COMPONENT OF THE DEFENSE BUDGET, ARMS CONTROL POLICY, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS AND FOREIGN AID POLICY NEEDS TO BE INTEGRATED INTO A COHERENT PROGRAM TO COMBAT THESE THREATS ACROSS THE BOARD. EVEN AS THE ADMINISTRATION SEEKS TO COUNTER THE SOVIET STRATEGIC THREAT WITH SDI, AND TO COUNTER THE WARSAW PACT CONVENTIONAL ADVANTAGE WITH A STRENGTHENING OF OUR CONVENTIONAL FORCES, WE MUST HELP THESE VICTIMS OF TERRORISM AND SUBVERSION DEFEND THEMSELVES. INCREASINGLY, THERE IS BROAD RECOGNITION THAT THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY HAS A RESPONSIBILITY ON BEHALF OF THE ENTIRE GOVERNMENT FOR "SCOUTING THE FUTURE." NOWEHERE ELSE IN GOVERNMENT IS THERE THE INFORMATION, EXPERTISE, OR RESOURCES TO LOOK ACROSS THE BROAD 13 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8 SPECTRUM OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, MILITARY, SOCIOLOGICAL, AND DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENTS TAKING PLACE, AND TO DISTILL FROM THEM CAREFUL ASSESSMENTS OF PROBLEMS WE WILL FACE NOW AND PAST THE YEAR 2000. 14 Approved For Release 2010/10/18: CIA-RDP88GO1 1 16RO01 202400005-8