REMARKS OF WILLIAM J. CASEY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AT THE AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE POLICY CONFERENCE SUNDAY, 6 APRIL 1986

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88G01117R001004050001-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 30, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 6, 1986
• Content Type: MISC

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KEMARKS OF wILLIAr~ ~? CASEY
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
AT THE
AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE POLICY CONFERENCE
SUNDAY, 6 APRIL 1986
WASHINGTON HILTON HOTEL
WASHINGTON, D? C?
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TUUAY, I WOULD LIKE TU TALK TU YOU ABOUT THE MIllllLE EAST
IN THE CONTEXT OF NEW DIMENSIONS IN THE STRATEGIC BALANCE
BETWEEN THE SOVIET BLOC AND THE FKEE DEMOCRACIES. IN THIS
CONTEXT, I WANT TU LOOK AT PRESENT DANGERS AND HOW WE CAN
MEET THEhI IN THE MIUDLE EAST, THE ARENA OF OUR PARTICULAR
CONCERN TONIGHT. I DO IT THIS WAY BECAUSE I BELIEVE THAT
TOllAY WE ARE WITNESSING PARTICULARLY INTENSIVE EFFORTS TO
TILT THE OVERALL STRATEGIC BALANCE WORLDWIDE AGAINST THE
WEST AND BECAUSE WE AMERICANS HAVE THUS FAR FAILEll TO SEE THE
INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WHAT IS HAPPENING IN CENTRAL AMERICA
ANU THE MIDDLE EAST, IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AND THE PERSIAN GULF,
IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. INCREASINGLY,
OUR POLICIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND ELSEWHERE MUST BE GEARED
TO AN EVER MORE AGGRESSIVE SOVIET INVOLVEMENT AND A GROWING
llANGER FRAM RADICA' AND VIOLENT GROUPS OPERATING THERE. WHILE
WE CONFRONT THIS THREAT WE MUST PROTECT OUR OVERALL STRATEGIC
POSTURE FROM SIMILAR AND COMPLEMENTARY PRESSURES ELSEWHERE.
WE ALL KNOW ROUGHLY THE HISTORY OF THE STRATEGIC BALANCE
AND HOW ESSENTIAL IT IS TO PROTECT OUR FREE AND OPEN SOCIETIES.
FROM THE BEGINNING, THE SOVIETS HAD THE DOMINANCE IN LAND
WARFARE. THIS WAS COUNTERED BY AMERICAN SUPERIORITY IN STRATEGIC
FORCES. BY 1980, THE SUVIET STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE FORCES HAD
CAUGHT UP AND, IN MANY KEY AREAS, SURPASSED OURS. THE SOVIETS
ARE NOW PROTECTING THEIR LAND MISSILE FORCE BY MAKING MUCH OF
IT MOBILE, WHEREAS OUR MOBILE MISSILES WILL NOT BE DEPLOYED
UNTIL WELL INTO THE 1990s?
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THE SUVItTS HNVE FUR WELL UVEK A DtCADt ,uNDUCTEll A VIGUKUUS
MISSILE DEFENSE PROGRAM. THEY ARE NOW COMPLETING A MISSILE
llEFENSE SYSTEM AKUUND MOSCOW. WE HAVE NO CUh1PARAliLE SYSTEP1?
FACING A COMBINATION OF OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE MISSILE
FORCES CAPABLE OF A FIRST STRIKE AGAINST OUk NUCLEAR DETERRENT,
OUR SDI RESEARCH IS EXAMINING WHETHER EFFECTIVE DEFENSES, WHICH
THREATEN NO ONE, CAN PROVIDE A MORE STABLE DETERRENT.
WHILE wE NEGOTIATE TO SCALE DOWN THE HUGE NUCLEAR ARSENAL
WITH WHICH THE TWO SUPERPOWERS FACE EACH OTHER, A MORE INSIDIOUS
THREAT IS DEVELOPING.
THE SOVIETS' MASSIVE NUCLEAR AND CONVENTIONAL FORCES MAY
BE ONLY A SHIELD TO MAKE IT EASIER AND LESS RISKY TO INTIMIDATE
ANll SUBVERT WEAKER GOVERNMENTS AND TO GOBBLE UP PIECES OF
TERRITORY AROUND THE GLOBE.
THEY HAVE AC9UIRED BRIDGEHEADS IN CUBA AND VIETNAM, IN
SOUTH YEMEN AND ETHIOPIA, IN ANGOLA AND NICARAGUA, IN CAMBODIA
AND AFGHANISTAN. THESE BRIDGEHEADS ARE BEING LINKED IN A
GROWING LOGISTIC AND MUTUAL SUPPORT NETWORK SUPPORTED WITH
EXPANDING SOVIET NAVAL AND AIR POWER.
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IN Tr;t CaKIBBEAN, THE SuvIETS HAVE CKEATED Ird CUBA THE
STnONGEST h1ILITARY FOKCE IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF UUK OWN. OVEK THE LAST FEW YEAKS THEY HAVE GIVEN
CUBA MASSIVE INFUSIONS OF h1ILITARY HARDWARE. TODAY, WE SEE
AN EXTENSION Of= THIS CUBAN BASE ON THE AMEKICAN MAINLANll IN
NICARAGUA.
SIMILAR LINKS AND COMPONENTS OF THIS NETWORK HAVE BEEN
ESTABLISHED AROUND THE GLOBE. FROM ANGOLA, SOVIET NAVAL AND
AIR FORCES NOW ROUTINELY OPERATE ASTRIDE WESTERN SHIPPING LANES
IN THE ATLANTIC.
SIMILARLY, THIS NETWORK THREATENS WESTERN SEA LANES IN
THE RED SEA, ARABIAN SEA, AND INDIAN OCEAN FROM BASES IN ETHIOPIA
AND SOUTH YEMEN.
SOVIET NAVAL AND AIR PURGES, OPERATING OUT OF OUR FORMER
BASES AT CAM RANH BAY AND DA NANG IN VIETNAM, COMMAND THE VITAL
SEA LANES LINKING JAPAN, TAIWAN AND SOUTH KOREA WITH THEIR
MIDDLE EAST OIL SUPPLIES AND SOUTHEAST ASIAN ALLIES.
THE MEDITERRANEAN SEGMENT OF THIS SOVIET GLOBAL NETWORK
IS ANCHORED AT LIBYA AND SYRIA, WHICH ARE GAINING INFLUENCE
AND CONTROL IN LEBANON AND SUDAN TO FURTHER SQUEEZE ISRAEL ANll
THE MODERATE ARAB STATES.
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~r,E~E ~~,~u~Htr~1~S Alf: .JUT S1~1TI~? TNtY Ni~vE A PUKPUSE?
THEY ARE LOCATED NEAR STRATEGIC CHOKE POINTS IN THE WORLU'S
SEA LANES OR IN AKEAS OF HIGH TENSION AND POTENTIAL CONFLICT.
THEY ARE BEING USED TO SPREAll SUBVERSION AND TERROR, AND SPAWN
NEW BkIllGEHEADS IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES. FROM CUBA AND
NICARAGUA, TERRORISM AND SUBVERSION ARE BEING EXPORTED THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO CHILE, COLOMBIA AND ELSEWHERE IN
LATIN AMERICA. FROM LIBYA, THERE IS INVASION OF CHAD, ATTEMPTS
AT DESTABILIZING GOVERNMENTS IN EGYPT AND TUNISIA, ZAIRE AND
SUDAN, AND SUBVERSION THROUGHOUT WEST AFRICA. FROM ANGOLA,
THERE ARE INTRUSIONS INTO ZAIRE. FROM SUVIET-OCCUPIED
AFGHANISTAN, THERE ARE CONTINUING ARMED INTRUSIONS INTO PAKISTAN.
ALREADY A HALLMARK OF THE GORBACHEV REGIME IS INTENSIFIED
EFFORT TO CEMENT THESE BRIDGEHEADS. HAVING PILED CLOSE TO TWO
BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF ARMS INTO ANGOLA, SOVIET ADVISORS AND
CUBAN TROOPS ARE FEVERISHLY PREPARING A CAMPAIGN, LIKELY TO BE
LAUNCHED DURING THIS MONTH AND DESIGNED TO WIPE OUT THE SAVIMBI
FORCES RESISTING THE MARXIST GOVERNMENT OF ANGOLA.
STARTING TWO MONTHS AGO, WITH HALF A BILLION DOLLARS
WORTH OF SOPHISTICATED WEAPONS RECENTLY AC9UIRED, THE SANDINISTA
ARhIY WITH CUBAN HELICOPTER PILOTS ANll COMBAT DIRECTION HAS
BEEN GOING ALL OUT TO DESTROY THE CONTRAS BEFORE CONGRESS
RENEWS ASSISTANCE TO THEM. LAST WEEK SOME 1,500 SANDINISTA
TROOPS CRUSSEU THE HONDURAN BORDER FOR THIS PURPOSE AND THIS
WEEK WE HAVE SEEN THOUSANDS OF MISKITO INDIANS IN THE EASTERN
PART OF NICARAGUA DRIVEN INTO HONDURAS.
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THE SOVIETS AkE ALSO MOVING HAkli TU PJAIL I10WN THEIK
BRIDGEHEADS IN THE f-IIDDLE EAST. IN SOUTH YEMEN, WE HAVE
RECENTLY SEEN THE APPLICATION OF THE SU-CALLED BREZHNEV DOCTRINE
WHICH SAYS: "ONCE COMMUNIST, ALWAYS COMMUNIST." THE GOVERNMENT
THEkE HAll BEGUN TU OPEN UP TU THE WEST. HAkDLIPJE PRU-SOVIET
EXILES RETURNEll FROM MOSCOW AND INITIATED A COUP AGAINST THE
SOUTH YEMEN PRESIDENT. THE COUP SOON ESCALATED INTO A BLOODY
CIVIL WAR BETWEEN MILITARY AND TRIBAL ELEMENTS LOYAL TO THE
PRESIDENT AND THOSE OF A HARDLINE PRO-SOVIET CAMP. AFTER THE
SOVIETS WATCHED THE BLOOD FLOW FOR A FEW DAYS, PLANES FLOWN
BY SOVIET PILOTS BEGAN PUUNllING PRU-GOVERNMENT FORCES AND
SOVIET WEAPONS BEGAN FLOWING TO REBEL FORCES. WE HAD SEEN
THIS MESSAGE BEFORE IN AFGHANISTAN IN 1979 AND GRENADA IN
1982? IT TELLS US THAT LEADERS OF GOVERNMENTS INSTALLED BY
MOSCOW WHO SEEK IMPROVEll RELATIONS WITH THE WEST DO SU AT
THEIR PERIL. THE SOVIETS ARE NOT READY TO BROOK ANY CHALLENGE
IN ANY PART OF THEIR EMPIRE.
UNTIL RECENTLY, THE SOVIET HAND WAS MORE CAREFULLY SCREENED
AND SUBTLY USED IN THE MIDDLE EAST. TODAY, THE SOVIET INVESTMENT
IN SYRIA AND LIBYA IS AT AN ALL TIME HIGH WITH SOME 6,000 SOVIET
BLOC MILITARY ADVISORS AND A MASSIVE ARSENAL OF SOVIET PLANES,
TANKS ANll ROCKETS. THOSE COUNTRIES, ALONG WITH IRAN, HAVE
DISCOVERED IN TERRORISM A LOW COST, LOW RISK MEANS OF ATTACKING
DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENTS IN EUROPE, THE MIDDLE EAST AND LATIN
AMERICA. TERRORISM TODAY IS AN INTEGRAL PART OF THE FOREIGN
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POLICY A~~D DEFENSE APPARATUS OF THESE SIATES? TItJY LIBYA
REACHES SOUTH INTO THE HEART OF AFRICA AND EAST TU PRESS,
TUGtTHEk WITH ETHIOPIA, UN SUDAN. WE SEE SYRIA PUSHING
HARD TO COMPLETE ITS DOh1INATION OF LEBANON AND Br~ING
SUPHISlICA1ED SOVIET WEAPONS SUU1H CLOSER TU ISRAEL.
THE ONLY THING THE SOVIETS HAVE TO SELL IN THE MIDDLE EAST
IS MUNITIONS. THEY WILL EXPEND MAJOR EFFORT TO PRESERVE THE
TRADITIONALLY SOVIET-DOMINATED ARMS MARKETS IN IRA9, ALGERIA,
AND NORTH YE~'IEN AGAINST WESTERN COMPETITION. THEY WILL WORK
TO EXPAND THE SOVIET SHARE OF TRADITIONALLY WESTERN-DOMINATED
MARKETS, PARTICULARLY IN JORDAN AND KUWAIT, AND TU WIN BACK
A SHARE OF THE MARKET IN EGYPT AND SUDAN. THEY ARE LIKELY TO
ENHANCE SOVIET OR SOVIET-CONTROLLED RECONNAISSANCE AND FIREPOWER
IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEDITERRANEAN. WE CAN EXPECT THEM
TO STEP UP THEIR EFFORTS TO REUNIFY THE PLO AND CONVINCE SYRIA
TO END ITS DISPUTES WITH ITS ARAB RIVALS.
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT TO SABOTAGE US-SPONSORED PEACE
NEGOTIATIONS, MOSCOW MIGHT BACK AN AGGRESSIVE SYRIAN MILITARY
POSTURE TOWARD ISRAEL, ABANDON ARAFAT, THROW FULL SUPPORT
BEHINll THE LEFTIST AND SYRIAN-BACKED FACTIONS OF THE PLO,
ANll PROVIDE GREATER BACKING FOR THE SUBVERSIVE EFFORTS OF
LIBYA AND OTHER RADICAL AND LEFTIST GROUPS.
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FRU~~ THE NOKT~i, SYRIA, FROM THE WEST, LI~Y~, FROM THE SOUTH,
ADEN AND FROM THE EAST, IRAN OR PERHAPS IRAfl -- ALL THREATEN
THE STABILITY OF THE MIllDLE EAST AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
SURROUND ISRAEL AND THE OIL FIELDS OF THE REGION. THE UNITED
STATES AND ISRAEL HAVE A SHARED VITAL INTEREST IN ARRESTING
THIS PATTERN OF SOVIET AND RADICAL EXPANSIONISM.
THIS CREEPING IMPERIALISM HAS, IN MY VIEW, TWO PRIMARY
TARGETS -- THE OIL FIELDS OF THE MIDDLE EAST WHICH ARE THE
LIFE LINE OF THE WESTERN ALLIANCE AND THE ISTHMUS BETWEEN
NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA. AFGHANISTAN, SOUTH YEMEN, ETHIOPIA,
AS WELL AS CAM RANH BAY IN VIETNAM, AND MOZAMBI9UE AND ANGOLA
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA, BRING SOVIET POWER MUCH CLOSER TO THE
SOURCES OF OIL AND MINERALS ON WHICH THE INDUSTRIAL NATIONS
DEPEND AND PUTS SOVIET NAVAL AND AIR POWER ASTRIDE THE SEA
LANES WHICH CARRY THOSE RESOURCES TO AMERICA, EUROPE AND
JAPAN.
CAPABILITIES TO THREATEN THE PANAMA CANAL IN THE SHORT
TERM AND MEXICO IN A SOMEWHAT LONGER TERM ARE BEING DEVELOPED,
WITH SOVIET SUPPORT, BY CUBA AND NICARAGUA. THEY HAVE WORKED
9UIETLY AND STEADILY TOWARD THEIR OBJECTIVES OF BUILDING THE
POWER OF THE STATE SECURITY APPARATUS, BUILDING THE STRONGEST
ARMED FORCES IN CENTRAL AMERICA, AND BECOMING A CENTER FOR
EXPORTING SUBVERSION TO NICARAGUA'S NEIGHBORS.
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Tni'~ ~;~~.=~i~~'~~~ uF TNt SOVIET ~~`'iaii~t, wH1~t Si ILL T-~ntaT'~N1N~,
HAS BEEN SLOWED IF NOT HALTED. IN THE DECADE OF THE 1980s,
THE SUVIEIS HAVE NUT ACOUIREll A SINGLE NEW COLONY. THE SOVIET
UNION CANNOT SUPPORT ITS EMPIRE ECONONIICALLY? FOR EVERY COUNTRY
THAT HAS EMBRACED IT, SOVIET MARXISM HAS BECOME A ONE-WAY
TICKET TO OPPRESSION AND POVERTY.
DURING THE 1970s, PEOPLE IN MANY PARTS OF THE WORLD WERE
FLOCKING TO JOIN COMMUNIST INSURGENCIES. IN THE 1980s, THIS
TREND HAS REVERSED. TODAY, SOME HALF MILLION PEOPLE AROUND
THE WORLD ARE FIGHTING IN RESISTANCE MOVEMENTS AGAINST COMMUNIST
REGIMES OR COMMUNIST OCCUPATION. AFGHANISTAN IS VIRTUALLY A
NATION-IN-ARMS FIGHTING AGAINST 120,000 SOVIET OCCUPATION
TROOPS. IN ANGOLA, SAVIMBI HAS SOME 60,000 FIGHTERS IN ALL
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BATTLING THE CUBANS, MARXIST ANGOLANS,
AND SOVIET ADVISORS. IN ETHIOPIA, ERITREAN AND TIGREAN REBELS
FIGHT THE MARXIST MENGISTU GOVERNMENT AND THE LARGEST ARMY IN
AFRICA WITH ITS CUBAN AND SOVIET ADVISORS. IN KAMPUCHEA,
50,000 INSURGENTS STRUGGLE BITTERLY WITH 170,000 OCCUPYING
VIETNAMESE SOLDIERS.
THESE WARS OF NATIONAL LIBERATION BEING WAGED IN SOVIET
COLONIES ON THREE CONTINENTS REPRESENT A GEOPOLITICAL PHENOMENON
OF IMMENSE HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE. JUST AS THE THIRD WORLD
REJECTED WESTERN COLONIALISM IN THE 1950s AND 1960s, SO IT IS
NOW REJECTING SOVIET COLONIALISM IN THE 1980s? AND IT IS
USING THE SOVIETS' OWN STRATEGY OF ARMED GUERRILLA RESISTANCE
-- WARS OF LIBERATION -- TO DO SO?
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IF wE HOLD FI~i., THE PENuULUh1 OF HISTURY WILL CUMPLEI~E
ITS SWING AWAY FR0~~1 SUVIET hiARXISh1 AS A MODEL FUR COUNTRIES IN
ASIA, AFRICA, AND LATIN AMERICA, AND TUwARD THE CONCEPTS OF
DEMOCRACY AND A FREE MARKET ECONOMY. IN LATIN AMERICA, FOR
EXAh71'LE, ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, URUGUAY, VEtdEZUELA, ECUADOR, PERU,
COLOMBIA, PANAMA, COSTA RICA, EL SALVADOR, HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA
ARE ALL FUNCTIONING DEMOCRACIES. THE SOVIETS HAVE OVER-EXPANDED
AND ARE ON THE DEFENSIVE. THE RADICAL ARAB STATES ARE WEAK
ECONOMICALLY AND WITHOUT FRIENDS POLITICALLY, WHILE EGYPT,
JORDAN AN1l OTHER ARAB MODERATES HAVE GOOD FRIENDS AND OUTSIDE
SUPPORT.
TO THWART THE THREAT OF SOVIET EXPANSIONISM AND RADICALISM
IN THE MIDDLE EAST, WE HAVE USED AND WILL EXPAND UPON THREE
INTER-RELATED STRATEGIES -- IMPRUVEll STRATEGIC COOPERATION, THE
PURSUIT OF PEACE, AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.
IN THE LAST FEW YEARS THE UNITED STATES HAS STRENGTHENED
AND INVIGORATED ITS STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH ISRAEL. AS
SECRETARY SHULTZ SAID HERE LAST YEAR, "STRATEGIC COOPERATION
BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND ISRAEL HAS BECOME A FORMAL,
INSTITUTIONAL PROCESS." I CAN ADD THAT THIS HAS INCLUDED
ENHANCED COOPERATION ON INTELLIGENCE EXCHANGES PARTICULARLY
ON TERRORISM. AT THE SAME TIME, WE HAVE ALSO EXPANDED OUR
COOPERATIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH FRIENDLY ARAB STATES WHO ALSO
SEE A SOVIET AND RADICAL DANGER.
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TU~ETHEk WE hIUST FIGHT TtkRUkISNI, A THKEAT WHICN FACES
ALL OUk FRIENDS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. P1IUDLE EAST RADICALS
DEUICATEll TU WEAKEWING THE WEST AND ISRAEL ARE ALSO DEllICATED
TO THE DESTRUCTION OF MODERATE AND PRO-WESTERN REGIMES IN THE
ARAB WORLD -- DETERMINED THAT A PEACEFUL SEITLEh1ENT NEVER BE
REACHED -- DETERMINED TO POLARIZE THE ARAB WORLD SO THAT
ACCOMMODATION CAN NEVER BE REACHED, SO THAT ARAB STATES PURSUING
A PRAGMATIC COURSE COLLAPSE IN FRONT OF MARXIST OR FUNDAMENTALIST
ASSAULTS. THE SOVIET UNION, EVEN WHEN IT CANNOT ALWAYS CONTROL
THESE h10VEMENTS, PROFITS FROM THEM AS THEY WEAKEN OR ELIMINATE
AREAS OF WESTERN INFLUENCE IN THE REGION.
WE REMAIN DEEPLY COMMITTED TO PURSUING A POLITICAL PROCESS
TO END THE ARAB-ISRAELI DISPUTE. THE REINVIGORATION OF THE
PEACE PROCESS IS, IN MY VIEW, OF OVERRIDING GEOPOLITICAL
IMPORTANCE IN ORDER TO DENY THE SOVIETS A LEVER FOR ENTRE TO
THE MIDDLE EAST. WE REMAIN READY TO ASSIST THE PARTIES DIRECTLY
CONCERNED TO NEGOTIATE FACE TO FACE A SOLUTION TU THEIR DIFFERENCES.
WE REAFFIRMED THIS DETERMINATION TO PRIME MINISTER PEKES LAST
WEEK.
FINALLY, WE ARE CONVINCED THAT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IS
CRITICAL TO BUILDING BARRIERS TO RADICALISM AND SOVIET
IMPERIALISM. PRIME MINISTER PEKES HAS PROPOSED JOINT ECONOMIC
COOPERATION A~10NG ISRAEL, EGYPT, AND JORDAN UNDER A NEW "MARSHAL
PLAN" STYLE PROGRAM. ALREADY THE UNITED STATES PROVIDES MORE
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ECUNUh1IC AIJ TU THESE STATES THAN ANY OTHERS. WE ARE DETER~~INEU
TO STAND UY THIS CUMMITMENT? WE HOPE THAT UTHER STATES WITH AN
INTEREST IN THE REGIUN -- INCLUDING THE EUROPEANS AND JAPAN --
WILL ENLIST IN REGIONAL ECONOMIC HELP.
STkATEGIC COOPERATION, DIPLOMACY FOR PEACE, AND ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT ARE THE KEYS TO MAINTAINING THE MOMENTUM BUILT IN
THE LAST YEARS TU HALTING SOVIET ADVANCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
WE HAVE VITAL INTERESTS IN THE MIllDLE EAST AND SHARED VALUES
WITH ISRAEL. WORKING TOGETHER WE MUST MAINTAIN THOSE VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE MEDITERRANEAN AND ELSEWHERE.
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